Second-year syndrome: Fact or myth?

• PART ONE: 2020 Players of Intrigue
• CLASSIC: Eels starting 17 + player analysis

So you’ve heard of second-year syndrome in the NRL.

The theory that the first year a gun rookie is exposed to the NRL they are new and catch teams and coaches off guard.

But come the second season the team of coaches from all clubs have fully analysed their game and coached their players in ways to negate the strengths of the gun rookie resulting in a drop in performance.

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Well today we’re going to look at the theory in a SuperCoach light. To do this properly firstly we have to look back a bit before we look forward.

Please note some of the players we are looking at below may have made their debuts earlier but for the purposes of this SuperCoach analysis we are looking at the first year they became relevant SuperCoach guns.

*Scroll down to the bottom of the page for a key on all SuperCoach relevant abbreviations.

Then we will analyse how they faired in their second year.

So as an experiment we have picked six of the best SuperCoach breakout players in 2017 and 2018 to see how they performed the following year.

Below are the breakout stars of 2018 and how they fared in 2019.

Player	2018 points	2018 Ave.	2019 points	2019 Ave.	Ave. +/-
Kalyn Ponga	1313	66	1365	68	+2
Jamayne Isaako	1337	56	949	45	-11
Jai Arrow	1352	64	1053	62	-2
Matt Lodge	1269	53	1315	63	+10
Shaun Lane	1303	54	1286	56	+2
Reimis Smith	573	52	848	37	-15

To note:

– For Ponga, an increase in SuperCoach points from goal-kicking helped him slightly better his average PPG despite the failed five-eighth experiment early in the season.

– Isaako was the opposite with a significant decrease in SuperCoach points from goals. He dropped from scoring 15.7PPG for goal kicks in 2018 to 9.4PPG in 2019.

You will always remember the day you watched Kalyn Ponga at the 2017 #NRLAKL9s!#NRL pic.twitter.com/bu8xUQWnft

— NRL (@NRL) February 5, 2017

– Matt Lodge’s increased role and minutes clearly had a lot to do with his improved average.

– Reimis Smith dropped significantly which is probably consistent with the erratic nature of the CTW position for most players.

Below are the breakout stars of 2017 and how they fared in 2018.

Player	2017 points	2017 Ave.	2018 points	2018 Ave.	Ave. +/-
Angus Crichton	1510	69	1521	69	0
Esan Marsters	693	53	1458	61	+8
Coen Hess	1331	58	1345	58	0
Nick Cotric	1189	50	1157	48	-2
Lachlan Fitzgibbon	807	58	1293	62	+4
Dylan Edwards	806	58	405	51	-7
Matt Eisenhuth	623	57	1297	54	-3

To note:

– Esan Marsters gained the goal-kicking duties for the Tigers in 2018 hence the sharp increase in average.

IN SUMMARY

So what can we deduce from the two samples? It’s hard to get anything conclusive out of the data. There was no major correlation in why scores differentiated.

The main note to be taken when considering boom rookies from the prior season is that forwards will naturally be more likely to gain an increase in minutes than their backline counterparts.

A likely increase or similar minutes means forwards are the safest options if concern arises over second-year syndrome.

The breakout season that twas Cameron Murray 🔥 #NRL pic.twitter.com/SIEeiidqLr

— NRL (@NRL) December 16, 2019

Of the seven forwards listed, just two (Eisenhuth and Arrow) produced smaller averages, both by minor margins.

Casting aside players who averaged around 80 minutes last season (Nikora, Bateman), this would suggest the likes of Luke Garner, Payne Haas, Cameron Murray and David Fifita are most likely set for SuperCoach improvement.

Backs are already playing the full 80, and if they’ve had stats to propel them to the top of SuperCoach charts they are far more likely to struggle to attain similar numbers.

Edwards, Isaako and Smith all experienced significant drops having been unable to back up their previous season’s exploits.

All in all, second-year syndrome impacts backs greater than forwards, but not significantly enough to suggest it should be a major concern when selecting your team.

John Bateman letting off a bit of steam… literally. 🎥 Elliott Whitehead via Instagram.#WeAreRaiders pic.twitter.com/b7lNgkNaZ3

— Canberra Raiders (@RaidersCanberra) October 29, 2019

2020 PREDICTIONS

Now the fun part! We have selected 13 of the best SuperCoach rookie/breakout players of 2019. Walson, Dez and Tim predict what we think they will average in 2020.

Player	2019 points	2019 Ave.	Walson	Dez	Tim
John Bateman	1438	72	75	70	69
Cameron Murray	1596	69	72	64	71
Payne Haas	1567	78	82	83	81
Briton Nikora	1380	60	62	56	57
Maika Sivo	1356	59	55	52	62
Bronson Xerri	1183	56	58	62	66
Ryan Papenhuyzen	1039	52	85	77	80
Reuben Garrick	1259	52	50	55	48
Paul Momirovski	665	55	50	48	43
Luke Garner	806	58	63	56	54
Brian To’o	851	57	59	53	50
Jayden Okunbor	566	57	54	48	42
David Fifita	1242	54	66	66	73

SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY

MPG = Minutes per game

PPG = Points per game

PPM = Points per minute

BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)

POD = Point of difference