Stat analysis: Vital numbers to beat the best, RD 13

• SQUAD BREAKDOWN: Round 13 team insights and analysis
• SUBSCRIBER SPECIAL: Question and answer

Analysing the top 20,000 teams after Round 12

Carnage! TLT has just turned the SuperCoach season on its head. 

Just when I was thinking that teams looked so similar, suddenly a host of the most popular players in the leading teams have not been named to play in Round 13 and many teams (including mine) are scrambling to even pull a side together. 

From a personal perspective, I’ve got 11 players out this week meaning that even with two trades I will be at least one player short – and that’s with the Hammer as my 16^th man.  Trouble!

In fact, I’d drafted this article prior to TLT and the general theme was that we all have such similar teams and how to find a POD to help climb the rankings. 

With so many guns out, I will instead look at how badly effected teams are by TLT.

Let’s look at some of the key changes to team ownership by position and ranking zone after Round 12.

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Fullback

As per previous weeks, the table below sets out the percentage of teams ranked in the top 100, top 500, top 1,000, top 10,000 and top 20,000 teams that own each fullback and contrast that with the ownership levels as per the SuperCoach site – again ordered by 5RA to see if we can find any hidden gems and potential PODs. 

Not surprisingly, FLB ownership levels are very similar to last week. The only real change was that the remaining 1% of owners of Dylan Edwards sold out and would appear to have traded up to Teddy.

I feel for Ryan Papenhuyzen owners. In what looked like a dream matchup against the Bulldogs for their big POD, instead Papenhuyzen is rested and owners are scrambling. Given all the other carnage I imagine most owners will hold.

CTW and dual FLB/CTW

There were a few big movements in CTW ownership levels last week – most notably a surge in ownership for David Nofoaluma. 

Nofo’s ownership level amongst the top 20,000 teams increased from 30% to 51% (and from 47% to 74% amongst the top 100 teams). 

That is a huge increase for a guy so expensive. Fair enough though. Personally I was a few thousand bucks short.

The other player whose ownership increased significantly was Latrap Mitchell – with his ownership amongst the top 1,000 teams increasing from 2% to 7%. 

Personally I think that was a mistake – but if Adam Reynolds is out and Latrap starts goal kicking again then he could be a much more attractive POD option.

Mitch Aubusson also surged in ownership, with 6% of teams owning the dual position veteran. Whilst he scored well last week, I can’t do it myself. I’ve fallen for that trap in the past. Good luck to his new owners though.

The primary downgrade option during the week was Jaxson Paulo, with his ownership increasing from 5% to 17%.

So who gave way?

Xavier Coates was once again the primary player sold with his ownership amongst the top 20,000 falling from 30% to 9%. 

In addition to Coates, ownership in Brett Morris fell from 8% to 1% and a quarter of Matt Ikuvalu’s owners took the cash and upgraded.

The other players sold off included Fanitesi Niu (-6%), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (-4%), Tevita Funa (-4%), Tommy Talau (-3%) and Jake Averillo (-2%).

With Bradman Best now injured, I’m expecting mass changes at CTW this week. No doubt lots of teams will upgrade to Nofo and Lomax but that arguably opens the door even more for a POD move. 

In saying that, one week’s Maika Sivo could then turn into…the next week’s Maika Sivo – so tread carefully. 

I suspect the most popular option will be Kotoni Staggs. He’s clearly a gun player and with the goal-kicking duties he has a high ceiling. 

Personally I think I will zag instead of Staggs though. Prior to TLT, and with the Knights having a nice upcoming draw I was planning to bring in Kurt Mann. 

One day later and we find Blake Green at five-eighth and multiple other guns not selected at all. I may just have to upgrade Bradman next week..

Halves

Another week, and another week of consolidation of ownership of the three gun halves.  

Ownership in Shaun Johnson increased from 53% to 65% (95% in the top 100 teams!) whilst ownership of Cameron Munster increased from 30% to 41% (63% in the top 100 teams). 

Similar to last week, those increases were at the expense of mid-rangers such as Jarome Luai (falling from 63% to 52% amongst the top 20,000 but from 52% to 30% in the top 100 teams) and George Williams (28% to 16%).

I think there are a few genuine POD options in the halves. I gambled on Kyle Flanagan last week hoping the Chooks might put a cricket score on the Titans but was disappointed with his score of 57. That pain has now been doubled with news that Flanagan is dropped and I will be a player short!

No doubt some will go for Mitch Moses given his bargain basement price and we know that someone like Cody Walker can get on a roll. In any case, I’d suggest it is irresponsible to not have both Cleary and Johnson.

2RF

Firstly, I hope Ryan Matterson is OK health wise. With a history of bad concussions, the 70% of teams that still own him will be wondering whether it is time to sell. 

In fact, many owners of Ryan cut their losses last week. Matterson’s ownership amongst the top 100 teams reduced from 84% to 71%. 

I think I will be joining them this week – it is just too much money to be leaving on the pine and he could be out for a while yet based on previous seasons.

The other player sold off last week was Angus Crichton, with his ownership level amongst the top 20,000 teams falling from 17% to 8%.

As per my comment last week, however, I can’t understand why his ownership isn’t closer to zero. Who holds a player that expensive on the bench for so long? 

Those who sold Matterson or Crichton zeroed in on a couple of players. Cameron Murray’s ownership increased from 15% to 20% whilst Cameron McInnes increased from 36% to 42%.

The most interesting move, however, was for John Bateman. 6% of the top 100 teams (but just 1% of teams outside the top 100) made the early move on Bateman. 

They were well and truly rewarded with a score of 88 and I suspect we will see plenty more teams move on Bateman this week. Watch this space. 

The return of David Fifita will no doubt generate some interest too.

And let’s not forget Jazz Tevaga. The 2019 Supercoach weapon is back and will be sure to attract fans – especially at hooker I suspect.

FRF

So Aiden Tolman has a higher 5RA than Payne Haas. How much more does 2020 have to give? He’s even taking quick taps these days? Let that be the last time that ‘quick’ and ‘Aiden Tolman’ are used in the same sentence again..

There was minimal movement last week in terms of the ownership levels of various FRFs. 

I do think there are a few POD options at FRF. AFB can pull out a monster score and I’ve personally gambled on Sio Siua Taukeiaho. 

Watching Junior Paulo last week though, he also has a high ceiling for a FRF. I personally prefer all those guys to David Klemmer. 

Big Klem just doesn’t have enough try scoring potential for me. Josh Papalii is the other FRF who I think could go big at any time.

HOK

Well, no sooner did we all go and buy Cameron Smith but the GOAT gets injured – albeit a minor injury. 

In fact it is just the second time in his career that Cameron Smith has failed to play longer than 40 minutes in a match. That is remarkable.

84% of the top 1,000 teams (and 93% of the top 100 teams) now own Cameron Smith so it will be interesting to see what those teams do this week. 

If that news wasn’t enough, we then get stung with the news that Harry Grant is also out this week meaning a huge number of teams are without a hooker at present. 

To quantify that, 86 of the top 100 teams have Smith and Grant as their hookers. Of the remaining 14, 13 have Damien Cook and 1 has Cameron McInnes at hooker.

When we add Chris Randall to the mix, 81% of the top 500, 79% of the top 1,000, 75% of the top 5,000 and 69% of the top 20,000 teams currently have no hooker available this week.

Hopefully that means we now get some more variation – there are plenty of viable options for those trading. 

Any of Damien Cook, Api Koroisau and Jazz Tevaga will be popular trade in targets, whilst some other teams may move Cam McInnes into HOK and bring in a 2RF or the likes of Cameron Munster instead. 

I note that Brandon Smith is also one of the most popular players traded in this week so we could have a very different picture at HOK this time next week.

Round 12 Captaincy Choices

With a match up against the Titans, not surprisingly, almost all of the leading teams who own Teddy went with him as captain. 

Whilst a score of 80 is very acceptable, I suspect we were all hoping for more – or more accurately, were too scared to not captain him in case he scored way more.

The only other captaincy choice of note this week amongst the leading teams was Cameron Smith. 

4% of the top 1,000 and 8% of the top 20,000 teams captained Smith and were left lamenting when he left the field after scoring a try last Sunday. Unlucky..

Perhaps this week will see a few teams take on Teddy. Those who are short (like me) at least have a free shot at the VC loop with him so curiously will probably be death riding him hoping to have an advantage over those who have to go the straight armband. 

He looks the obvious captain yet again. Owners of Cameron Munster will be licking their lips at the prospect of taking on the Bulldogs and the likes of Damien Cook, Cameron Murray and even Latrap could see some admirers taking on the Broncos. 

And with Lolo scoring 109 last week and taking on the Titans this week he will be sure to attract some attention.   

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Quantifying the TLT Carnage

With so many players out, I thought it would be interesting to analyse how badly teams are effected. Bear in mind that these numbers are pre-trades this week.

What we see is that on average, teams have 7 players unavailable for selection this week. 

The most common players unavailable (in order) are Harry Grant, Cameron Smith, Ryan Matterson, Bradman Best, Beau Fermor and Brayden Williame.

18 of the top 1,000 teams and 216 of the top 10,000 teams have at least 11 players out meaning that they will be running out with a maximum of 16 players on the field.  Unfortunately, I’m one of them!

What the table doesn’t show, however, is some of the obscure players that teams will be trotting out in their 17s to field a side. 

For me, the only guy I’m concerned about is The Hammer – but at least he is up against the Titans so he has a chance of scoring. 

A lot of other teams will be hoping that fringe players like Tyrell Fuimaono, Jaxson Paulo, Andrew Davey, Tom Eisenhuth, Jamayne Taunoa-Brown, Billy Walters, Keaon Koloamatangi and Jake Averillo can deliver this week. 

I’ll be death riding all of them (apart from my Bulldog Averillo!).

Good luck to everyone again in Round 13 – many of us are going to need it! 

For those who want to get these stats on Twitter, feel free to follow me here @adamdriussi

DISCOUNT! Prices have dropped for our subscription packages. Help support the future of the site by signing up to SC Playbook for detailed SuperCoach analysis from hundreds of additional articles throughout the 2020 NRL season.