Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
Squad Breakdown: Round 15 team insights
We analyse all the key SuperCoach ins and outs following the release of Round 15 teams.
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August 18, 2020
- WEEKLY WRAP: Round 14 highs, lows and shocks
- SUBSCRIBER SPECIAL: Question and answer
The teams have dropped for Round 15, with the exclusion of Payne Haas adding to the growing toll of SuperCoach guns.
The Cooma Stallions produced a strong round to score 1,430, leading to a rise into 32nd in the overall rankings.
Here’s our breakdown of the Round 15 teams.
*Scroll down to the bottom of the page for a key on all SuperCoach relevant abbreviations.
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Embed from Getty ImagesEELS V STORM
Thursday, 7.50pm, Bankwest Stadium, Sydney
Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown
Bench: 14. Ray Stone 15. Marata Niukore 16. Kane Evans 17. Oregon Kaufusi
Reserves: 18. Andrew Davey 19. Haze Dunster 20. Will Smith 21. Brad Takairangi
Analysis: King Gutho had a remarkable 30 runs in the loss to the Dragons. He’s really impressed me as a SuperCoach player this year, but I still think Teddy and Ponga are the two fullbacks to take you home.
Maika Sivo struggled again with 40 points and is now a barely believable $368k. Barring injuries, I’ll be looking seriously at adding him as a 5th/6th CTW option next week for the run home to be played in very selective fixtures.
Dylan Brown and Mitch Moses underwhelmed and may struggle in the tough match up with Melbourne this week. If looking to jump on, Brown remains the better buy but you’d want to wait a week if doing so.
Junior Paulo has played just 48 and 54 minutes the past two weeks in a huge worry for owners. I’d now be hesitant to buy, but he will be well under $550k next week which is tempting if he gets increased time this week.
Ryan Matterson returned with a solid 60, but importantly got through unscathed and played the full 80 minutes. With a breakeven of 149 he’ll be $500-$550k next week and will be an absolute bargain.
Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Sandor Earl 3. Brenko Lee 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ryley Jacks 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Brandon Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Tino Faasuamaleaui
Bench: 14. Nicho Hynes 15. Tom Eisenhuth 16. Albert Vete 17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Reserves: 18. Marion Seve 19. Chris Lewis 20. Cooper Johns 21. Darryn Schonig
Analysis: Surprisingly there’s not much going on at Melbourne with Cam Smith and Munster out of the side.
Brandon Smith rewarded owners with a decent 73 points including a try-assist in 63 minutes. He’s an immediate sell when Cam returns.
Jahrome Hughes tonned up against the Roosters and will entice some as a POD, but with five scores under 40 this season he’s far too unreliable for me.
He’s also in some doubt with injury.
Tino Faasuamaleaui could be a huge POD with a return to the starting side in Dale Finucane’s absence.
Embed from Getty ImagesPANTHERS v SHARKS
Friday, 6pm, Panthers Stadium, Penrith
Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Josh Mansour 3. Tyrone May 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brent Naden 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. James Tamou 9. Api Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
Bench: 14. Daine Laurie 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Moses Leota 17. Zane Tetevano
Reserves: 18. Mitch Kenny 19. Brian To’o 20. Matt Burton 21. Billy Burns
Analysis: Josh Mansour (75) and Stephen Crichton (68) were again strong and remain very serious buys with Penrith’s dream run home.
Nathan Cleary is obviously a must-have for anyone mad enough to not own yet. He’s again a serious captaincy option this week.
Jarome Luai dropped $35k this week and has a breakeven of 88. It’s time to sell him, although with the run home Penrith have there’s a case to hold with his dual position status for teams that don’t have the luxury to trade. He’s a back up option at best.
While there’s far safer options in the back-row, Viliame Kikau is a serious POD option and is very affordable at under $500k.
He’s owned by just 6% of the top 1,000 ranked SuperCoaches. It might be time for some to swallow their pride and trade back in Api Koroisau who has a 3RA of 81 and importantly has played 80 minutes in his last two games.
He could find his way into some serious attacking stats before the end of the season.
Brian To’o has been named on the extended bench and is one to watch on the run home.
Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Josh Dugan 4. Jesse Ramien 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Braden Hamlin-Uele 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Aaron Woods 11. Siosifa Talakai 12. Wade Graham 13. Toby Rudolf
Bench: 14. Connor Tracey 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Jack Williams 17. Royce Hunt
Reserves: 18. Teig Wilton 19. Briton Nikora 20. Braydon Trindall 21. Bryson Goodwin
Analysis: Shaun Johnson left the field with a groin niggle after 63 minutes but is reportedly okay. With the tough match up this week and the slight injury concern, that may impact his goal-kicking, I’ll be looking to sit him in reserves for the week is possible.
But with Payne Haas out and a few other concerns it might be wishful thinking.
Siosifa Talakai scored 102 against the Titans and has a 3RA of 75PPG in 80MPG. I’d be extremely tempted as a POD at CTW except with Briton Nikora looming I’m a little scared off.
John Morris did reveal Talakai won the spot with form giving him no option other than to give him a starting role, and he’s been great since then.
Toby Rudolf is beginning to leak cash and is a sell.
Embed from Getty ImagesBRONCOS v DRAGONS
Friday, 7.55pm, Suncorp Stadum, Brisbane
Broncos: 1. Darius Boyd 2. Richard Kennar 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Jordan Kahu 5. Herbie Farnworth 6. Anthony Milford 7. Tom Dearden 8. Joe Ofahengaue 9. Issac Luke 10. Rhys Kennedy 11. David Fifita 12. Ben Te’o 13. Pat Carrigan
Bench: 14. Corey Paix 15. Jordan Riki 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Jamil Hopoate
Reserves: 18. Pride Petterson-Robati 19. Jesse Arthars 20. Sean O’Sullivan 21. Brodie Croft
Analysis: Pat Carrigan played 73 minutes against the Raiders and you can expect similar again with Payne Haas out of action for two weeks. He may even play the entire 80.
Tom Flegler needs a shoulder reconstruction and is likely out for the season. This further increases the likelihood of Carrigan playing big minutes.
If Haas missed three weeks he’d be a sell, but the confirmation of two weeks with the early guilty plea is a little awkward. You’ll want him back immediately on return, so I strongly advise holding.
It’s all pending how individual sides are set up and whether they can field a full strength 17 if holding him. Keep in mind that plenty of teams will run out of trades with two weeks to go.
I’m running two nuffs at FRF so will likely be forced to sell as I’m also holding a non-playing Cam Munster so there’s not a lot of wiggle room.
David Fifita is a very serious buy this week having scores of 79 and 80 since returning from injury. He has 20 tackle breaks in four games this season and his only major attacking stat against the Raiders was a line assist.
He had 18 runs in that game and looks a superb option at $532k. I wouldn’t be going near Kotoni Staggs with Brisbane’s brutal run home.
Dragons: 1. Matt Dufty 2. Jordan Pereira 3. Euan Aitken 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Corey Norman 7. Adam Clune 8. Blake Lawrie 9. Ben Hunt 10. Josh Kerr 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Tyrell Fuimaono 13. Cameron McInnes
Bench: 14. Jacob Host 15. Kaide Ellis 16. Korbin Sims 17. Paul Vaughan
Reserves: 18. Trent Merrin 19. Tristan Sailor 20. Brayden Wiliame 21. Eddie Blacker
Analysis: The Dragons present interest with games against the three struggling Queensland clubs over the next three weeks.
Zac Lomax is the obvious one who continues to score well against superior opposition. He could be set for a huge three weeks ahead. Cam McInnes scored 71 in base and is close to a must-have now that he’s getting plenty of runs at lock.
Euan Aitken is one player who could go on a streak in coming rounds. He only scored 48 against the Dragons but it was entirely in base with 20 runs and 14 tackles, but the $573k price tag is a hurdle.
Jordan Pereira is a sneaky POD option for the next three weeks, but it’s a bit of a luxury trade. He’s scored below 37 in four of his 10 games this year, but in his defence they all came when the Dragons were playing garbage footy which has changed dramatically.
TITANS v RAIDERS
Saturday, 3pm, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Anthony Don 3. Brian Kelly 4. Young Tonumaipea 5. Phillip Sami 6. Ash Taylor 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Nathan Peats 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Keegan Hipgrave 13. Moeaki Fotuaika
Bench: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Sam Lisone 16. Beau Fermor 17. Sam Stone
Reserves: 18. Corey Thompson 19. Tanah Boyd 20. Jai Whitbread 21. Erin Clark
Analysis: AJ Brimson was extremely solid again with 68 points without a try or try-assist. I’m still not convinced on him at all as a buy, but the Titans attack is improving so I can somewhat understand the POD move.
Beau Fermor could become a serious auto-emergency nightmare. Dez Creek called out Brian Kelly as a super POD last week, he delivered with 105 points to push his 3RA to 89. He’s obviously proven himself to be a serious POD option, but I can’t bring myself to go near a Titans attacking player.
Jai Arrow is out with a shoulder injury, with Moeaki Fotuaika moving to lock which can only be good news for his minutes for anyone who still owns.
Raiders: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Jordan Rapana 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Curtis Scott 5. Nick Cotric 6. Jack Wighton 7. George Williams 8. Josh Papalii 9. Siliva Havili 10. Dunamis Lui 11. John Bateman 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Hudson Young
Bench: 14. Tom Starling 15. Joseph Tapine 16. Ryan Sutton 17. Corey Harawira-Naera
Reserves: 18. Sam Williams 19. Harley Smith-Shields 20. Kai O’Donnell 21. Matt Frawley
Analysis: Big Jonny Bateman delivered for new owners with 95 points. His combination with George Williams looked very sharp, and with games against the Titans and Bulldogs in the next fortnight he could go large again. He’s not necessarily a must-have, but he’s a very hard man to watch as a non-owner.
Fears were confirmed with Josh Papalii getting an early shower with the comfortable lead against Brisbane. He played just 46 minutes and scored 45 points. I’m concerned this will happen again in the next two weeks should the Raiders find themselves well ahead in games.
While George Williams was superb against the Broncos, neither he or Jack Wighton interest me as buys.
Embed from Getty ImagesTIGERS v ROOSTERS
Saturday, 5.30pm, Leichhardt Oval, Sydney
Tigers: 1. Adam Doueihi 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Joey Leilua 4. Moses Mbye 5. Tommy Talau 6. Luke Brooks 7. Benji Marshall 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Russell Packer 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Luke Garner 13. Matt Eisenhuth
Bench: 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Elijah Taylor 16. Josh Reynolds 17. Alex Seyfarth
Reserves: 18. Alex Twal 19. Thomas Mikaele 20. Chris Lawrence 21. Asu Kepaoa
Analysis: The Tigers face the Roosters, Panthers, Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs, Storm and Eels on the run home. Prior to last week I considered selling David Nofoaluma as an anti-POD play due to the brutal opposition, but he’s just so damn good.
He’s the number one scoring player in SuperCoach this season, averaging 80PPG off the back of his 134 against the Bulldogs. I’ll be holding for the remainder of the season.
If I didn’t own I’d be tempted to hold off and death-ride. I’m likely to sell Luciano Leilua this week after having done a ripping job, particularly of late with a 5RA of 87PPG.
While looking tremendous on field, I think he relies a little too heavily on attacking stats which might not be as frequent against harder opposition. His base is a decent 44BPG. However, the current Roosters side isn’t overly intimidating due to the huge injury toll.
Alex Twal has been named on the extended bench.
Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Matt Ikuvala 3. Josh Morris 4. Joseph Manu 5. Matt Ikuvala 6. Drew Hutchinson 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Jake Friend 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Sitili Tupouniua 12. Nat Butcher 13. Isaac Liu
Bench: 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Poasa Faamausili 16. Daniel Fifita 17. Lindsay Collins
Reserves: 18. Egan Butcher 19. Ryan Hall 20. Max Bailey 21. Sam Walker
Analysis: James Tedesco has a 3RA of 67PPG. I love the fact that he’ll now have far less captaincy ownership going forward. I think Luke Keary’s absence will be very detrimental to his scoring though.
So many of Teddy’s attacking numbers come directly off the back of Keary’s ability to play fast footy and dig deep into the line.
Without this on his inside he’ll be far easier for defences to shut down, compared to normal at least.
Unfortunately Mitch Aubusson was injured against the Storm and played just 35 minutes. He’s made $160k since bottoming out and can be sold for that nice profit.
Kyle Flanagan returns which is a blow for owners of Siosiua Taukeiaho who now loses the goal-kicking duties. Despite the injuries, his minutes regressed to 60 on the weekend. He’s no longer a buy, although there’s no need for owners to panic trade at all.
Embed from Getty ImagesRABBITOHS v SEA EAGLES
Saturday, 7.35pm, ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Campbell Graham 4. Dane Gagai 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Jaydn Su’A 12. Bayley Sironen 13. Cam Murray
Bench: 14. Mark Nicholls 15. Keaon Koloamatangi 16. Patrick Mago 17. Jack Johns
Reserves: 18. Jed Cartwright 19. Corey Allan 20. Troy Dargan 21. Kurt Dillon
Analysis: Following this week, the Rabbitohs have a tough fortnight with games against the Eels and Storm. As such, I’d be looking at plans to move on their attack reliant players next week such as Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker.
Damien Cook and Cam Murray are hanging onto their spots by the skin of their teeth. They scored 64 and 61 respectively, with Murray’s time on the edge again hurting his base stats.
He also reverted back to 60 minutes against the Cowboys. Murray’s base is reasonable, he just can’t find a major attacking stat for the life of him!
He hasn’t registered a try or try-assist since Round 8 against the Bulldogs. I’ll be holding both, surely that three figure score is coming…
Sea Eagles: 1. Reuben Garrick 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Brad Parker 4. Moses Suli 5. Tevita Funa 6. Cade Cust 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Danny Levi 10. Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson 12. Curtis Sironen 13. Jake Trbojevic
Bench: 14. Lachlan Croker 15. Corey Waddell 16. Sean Keppie 17. Haumole Olakau’atu
Reserves: 18. Morgan Boyle 19. Abbas Miski 20. Jack Gosiewski 21. Addin Fonua-Blake
Analysis: Jake Trbojevic is really the only relevant player at Manly at the moment. He bashed out another 77 points with 50 tackles and 14 runs for a 3RA of 87PPG.
Addin Fonua-Blake has been named on the extended bench.
Embed from Getty ImagesBULLDOGS v WARRIORS
Sunday, 2pm, ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Bulldogs: 1. Will Hopoate 2. Nick Meaney 3. Tim Lafai 4. Kerrod Holland 5. Reimis Smith 6. Kieran Foran 7. Jack Cogger 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Aiden Tolman 11. Matt Doorey 12. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 13. Josh Jackson
Bench: 14. Sione Katoa 15. Luke Thompson 16. Sauaso Sue 17. Jake Averillo
Reserves: 19. Renouf To’omaga 20. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 21. Chris Smith 22. Lachlan Lewis
Analysis: Raymond Faitala-Mariner was struggling with the flu and played just 26 minutes. He was a sell regardless, but now he can definitely be moved on to someone like Fifita or Trbojevic.
Will Hopoate returns from injury at fullback and is one to keep a close eye on this weekend.
Last week’s debutant Matt Doorey gets a start in the back-row.
Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. Adam Pompeye 3. Hayze Perham 4. Peta Hiku 5. George Jennings 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Chanel Harris-Tavita 8. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 9. Karl Lawton 10. Lachlan Burr 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Tohu Harris 13. Jazz Tevaga
Bench: 14. Wayde Egan 15. Adam Blair 16. Daniel Alvaro 17. Jack Murchie
Reserves: 18. Paul Turner 20. Gerard Beale 21. Josh Curran 23. Tom Ale
Analysis: If Todd Payten is looking to make any new friends while in Australia he’s going the wrong way about it by playing Jazz Tevaga for just 37 minutes.
Being the animal that he is he still punched out 56 points, it’s hard to believe what he could score with his PPM in big minutes under the new rules.
Owners will be praying he gets more game time, but there’s no need to really consider selling just yet. Tohu Harris continued about his business with 70 points including 50 tackles in 80 minutes. He’s owned by just 17% of the top 20,000 which makes him marginally a POD.
KNIGHTS v COWBOYS
Sunday, 4.05pm, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Starford To’a 3. Enari Tuala 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Hymel Hunt 6. Blake Green 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. David Klemmer 9. Kurt Mann 10. Jacob Saifiti 11. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 12. Aidan Guerra 13. Mitchell Barnett
Bench: 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Herman Ese’ese 16. Josh King 17. Pasami Saulo
Reserves: 18. Brodie Jones 19. Tex Hoy 20. Chris Randall 21. Jirah Momoisea
Analysis: Kalyn Ponga will be a very popular captaincy option this week. I can see him going very large in this one. He returned to his frustrating habit of preferencing the right edge against Manly, I have no idea why this keeps happening.
He threw several garbage balls that could easily have been tries if executed properly in another sign that he’s far better favouring the left edge.
Regardless, he still scored well and set up the match winner, yes, on the left edge with a peach of a pass. He’s now $700k with a -1 breakeven, so it’s arguably now or never for non-owners.
Kurt Mann crossed for another meat pie for 77 points in 73 minutes. He made 36 tackles and had nine runs. He’s a serious buy at CTW this week, although he’s not a must have.
Mitch Barnett is a sneaky POD for the run home at $537k. His last four scores have been 84, 68, 62 and 79 and he played 80 minutes on the weekend. He had 64 in base on the weekend, and had 69 in base back in Round 11 when he played 78 minutes.
David Klemmer has back-to-back scores of 78 and 75 and is a replacement option for those looking to trade out Payne Haas. I sound like a broken record but the ceiling isn’t there for me to consider buying, although with Haas out and Papalii/Paulo struggling I can see why you’d go there.
Daniel Saifiti being out certainly won’t hurt Klemmer’s case.
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Tom Opacic 4. Connelly Lemuelu 5. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 6. Ben Hampton 7. Michael Morgan 8. Josh McGuire 9. Reece Robson 10. Jordan McLean 11. Mitchell Dunn 12. Coen Hess 13. Jason Taumalolo
Bench: 14. Reuben Cotter 15. John Asiata 16. Emre Pere 17. Francis Molo
Reserves: 18. Shane Wright 19. Jake Clifford 20. Corey Jenson 21. Justin O’Neill
Analysis: There’s nothing doing at the Cowboys outside of Jason Taumalolo who needs no further discussion, although I’d avoid captaining having played just 56 minutes on the weekend.
SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY
MPG = Minutes per game
PPG = Points per game
PPM= Points per minute
BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)
POD = Point of difference
3RA = Three round average
5RA = Five round average
BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price rise.
*Please note all our stats are taken from the geniuses at nrlsupercoachstats.com
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