Squad Breakdown: Round 16 team insights

• WEEKLY WRAP: Round 15 highs, lows and shocks
• SUBSCRIBER SPECIAL: Question and answer

The teams have dropped for Round 16, and it may well be one of the most significant of the season.

The Cooma Stallions produced a decent round to score 1,316, leading to a rise into 22nd in the overall rankings.

A last minute decision following Shaun Johnson’s withdrawal to trade in Cody Walker and not play Jarome Luai proved costly.

Not to worry, if you dwell on every wrong decision it takes the enjoyment out of SuperCoach and the NRL itself, so moving on!

Here’s our breakdown of the Round 16 teams.

*Scroll down to the bottom of the page for a key on all SuperCoach relevant abbreviations.

DISCOUNT! Prices have dropped for our subscription packages. Help support the future of the site by signing up to SC Playbook for detailed SuperCoach analysis from hundreds of additional articles throughout the 2020 NRL season.

Embed from Getty Images

EELS v RABBITOHS

Thursday, 7.50pm, Bankwest Stadium, Sydney

Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown

Bench: 14. Ray Stone 15. Andrew Davey 16. Kane Evans 17. Oregon Kaufusi

Reserves: 18. Stefano Utoikamanu 19. Haze Dunster 20. Will Smith 21. Brad Takairangi

Analysis: Clint Gutherson, Maika Sivo, Mitch Moses and Dylan Brown are all players that from here on out should only be played against easier opposition. 

Gutho and Brown are more so exceptions as they’re far more reliable scorers, however there’s better options so opt for those when possible. 

Of course this is a luxury move provided your 17 can handle the current injury toll.

Ryan Matterson should be on top of everyone’s shopping list this week. I anticipate Jason Taumalolo to him will be the most popular trade option in Round 16.

Matto was immense with 115 points against the Storm of all sides, and while it stopped the haemorrhaging of cash, he’s still a ridiculous price at $560k.

Matterson had his second highest base of the season with 65 against Melbourne, don’t get tricky, just get him in!

Junior Paulo scored just 39 points in 47 minutes despite the fact it was a tight contest. 

He now averages around the 50 minute mark across his past three games which is well down on his season average. Expect him to receive further spells as the Eels gain big leads on the run home.

If I owned I’d be tempted to give him one more week before parting ways.

Nathan Brown has a 5RA of 66PPG in big game time. He’s one to consider, but I prefer back-rowers with higher ceilings personally.

Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Corey Allan 3. Campbell Graham 4. Dane Gagai 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Jaydn Su’A 12. Bayley Sironen 13. Cam Murray

Bench: 14. Mark Nicholls 15. Liam Knight 16. Patrick Mago 17.  Keaon Koloamatangi

Reserves: 18. Jed Cartwright 19. Steven Marsters 20. Troy Dargan 21. Kurt Dillon

Analysis: Latrell Mitchell produced what we all knew he was capable of with 141 points against the Sea Eagles, wow! It could be the kickstart he needs to continue firing on the way home.

However, with games against the Eels and Storm in the next fortnight I wouldn’t be jumping on. Melbourne should have plenty of stars back for week one of head-to-head finals, so playing Latrell there would be of huge concern.

Damien Cook (93) and Cam Murray (73) delivered for owners and boy did they need to… Murray’s base stats were again heavily skewed having spent plenty of time at centre, but at least it balanced out a touch with the late try.

Both remain holds, particularly with Taumalolo’s injury, but I wouldn’t rush to buy either.

While I recruited Cody Walker as a last minute POD for SJ, it was a one week play and he’ll struggle to make my 17 for the rest of the season. How the orchestrator of South Sydney’s attack only scored 50 points in a 56-12 rout is incredible.

With their attack clicking I’ll reassess most as potential buys in a fortnight when they come into games against the Tigers and Bulldogs.

Embed from Getty Images

DRAGONS v TITANS

Friday, 6pm, Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

Dragons: 1. Matt Dufty 2. Jordan Pereira 3. Euan Aitken 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Corey Norman 7. Adam Clune 8. Blake Lawrie 9. Ben Hunt 10. Josh Kerr 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron McInnes

Bench: 14. Kaide Ellis 15. Trent Merrin 16. Jackson Ford 17. Billy Brittain

Reserves: 18. Eddie Blacker 19. Tristan Sailor 20. Jayden Sullivan 21. Max Feagai

Analysis: All eyes will be on Zac Lomax here. With games against the Titans and Cowboys coming up he could go big on either week. 

I’m continuing to anti-POD him for the run home as I need a differential to those above me who all own, but it’s going to be a brutal watch. He remains a great buy though, particularly for head-to-head players.

The credentials of the extremely solid Cam McInnes need no further explanation.

Ben Hunt is a huge POD play for the next fortnight, but after that he becomes a bit of a risk with games against the Raiders, Knights and Storm.

That being said, with his base at hooker he shouldn’t go too low and teams should be set up well enough that you shouldn’t have to play him in those games.

The addition of Billy Brittain on the bench is a worry though as he could get a spell, especially if they are winning well.

Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Corey Thompson 3. Brian Kelly 4. Young Tonumaipea 5. Phillip Sami 6. Ash Taylor 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Mitch Rein 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. Sam Stone 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tyrone Peachey

Bench: 14. Erin Clark 15. Sam Lisone 16. Keegan Hipgrave 17. Jai Whitbread

Reserves: 18. Tanah Boyd 19. Anthony Don 20. Treymain Spry 21. Darius Farmer

Analysis: Congrats to those who jumped on AJ Brimson three weeks back. He now has a 3RA of 90 following his 90 on the weekend despite the Titans being belted by the Raiders. I thought he’d struggle against the better sides, but so far so good, I’m happy to admit being off the mark on that call.

At almost $500k I think the value is gone with him as there’s better players available at FLB-5/8, however with games against the Dragons, Dogs and Broncos coming up he can continue to score well.

My preference on not picking Titans attacking players did come through with Brian Kelly at least who scored 31.

Embed from Getty Images

ROOSTERS v BRONCOS

Friday, 7.55pm, SCG, Sydney

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Josh Morris 4. Joseph Manu 5. Brett Morris 6. Drew Hutchinson 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Jake Friend 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Boyd Cordner 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Isaac Liu

Bench: 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Poasa Faamausili 16. Nat Butcher 17. Lindsay Collins

Reserves: 18. Daniel Fifita 19. Ryan Hall 20. Max Bailey 21. Egan Butcher

Analysis: The Roosters finally welcome back some injured stars and they’ll fancy themselves to put a cricket score on the Broncos. Teddy has a 5RA of just 61.6. You’d have gotten bigger odds on that than Leicester winning the Premier League a few years back. 

Regardless, I’ll be looking to captain this week as I fully expect him to go 100+ against the Broncos.

Brett Morris is finally semi affordable at $649k despite his century against the Tigers. He now has a season average of 76 and was owned by 0% of the top 1,000 sides prior to Round 15. That’s a super POD if I’ve ever seen one.

Nuffing David Nofoaluma to him is a high risk, high reward option.

The Roosters have an okay run home with the Broncos, Raiders, Knights, Sharks and Rabbitohs.

Siosiua Taukeiaho played 80 minutes for the second time in three weeks and scored 102 points. He had a try-assist, 37 tackles, 18 runs and two line assists. If Trent Robbo would stop playing funny buggers with his minutes he’d be a lot easier to assess.

When playing 80 he’s a must-have, but his game time is all over the shop, so I’ll reluctantly avoid and hope the minutes drop.

Daniel Tupou is a huge POD for the run home, but do you go early with this friendly match up or wait to see his return from injury? I’d wait…

Broncos: 1. Darius Boyd 2. Richard Kennar 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Jordan Kahu 5. Herbie Farnworth 6. Sean O’Sullivan 7. Tom Dearden 8. Joe Ofahengaue 9. Corey Paix 10. Rhys Kennedy 11. David Fifita 12. Ben Te’o 13. Pat Carrigan

Bench: 14. Brodie Croft 15. Jordan Riki 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Jamil Hopoate

Reserves: 18. Jesse Arthars 19. Pride Petterson-Robati 20. Tyson Gamble 21. Corey Oates

Analysis: Pat Carrigan played 80 minutes in the absence of Brisbane’s missing forwards. He scored 86 with 40 tackles, 24 runs and two offloads, beast.

As good as he looks in those minutes, I’d be hesitant to buy as an overall player as he’s so heavily owned and doesn’t have much of a ceiling. Head-to-head players can recruit if your team needs a strong FRF, but I wouldn’t be bringing him into my 2RF position.

While incredibly consistent when given the minutes, that 86 was comfortably his best score of the season.

David Fifita managed just 56 without a major attacking stat to his name. His base isn’t among the elite 2RFs, but his ceiling is among the best.

He’s returned from injury in beast mode and is a great replacement for Taumalolo.

Speaking of beasts, Kotoni Staggs scored 70 with a freakish solo try, but with games against the Roosters, Panthers, Titans and Eels over the next month I’ll be avoiding.

Embed from Getty Images

WARRIORS v KNIGHTS

Saturday, 3pm, Scully Park, Tamworth

Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. Adam Pompeye 3. Hayze Perham 4. Peta Hiku 5. George Jennings 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Chanel Harris-Tavita 8. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 9. Karl Lawton 10. Lachlan Burr 11. Eliesa Katoa 12. Tohu Harris 13. Jazz Tevaga

Bench: 14. Wayde Egan 15. Adam Blair 16. Daniel Alvaro 17. Jack Murchie

Reserves: 18. Isaiah Papali’i 20. Gerard Beale 21. Josh Curran 22. Paul Turner

Analysis: Jazz Tevaga saw an increase to 59 minutes against the Bulldogs and scored 83 with 32 tackles and 15 runs, animal… He had a HIA just before halftime which may have actually played into his hands regarding minutes as he was due for a spell when he went off anyway.

If he plays 60+ minutes this week I’ll look to buy, but it’s still a close watch for me.

Tohu Harris was solid again with 67 points, but he only played 63 minutes so I’d look elsewhere for a replacement for Taumalolo.

Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Starford To’a 3. Enari Tuala 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Hymel Hunt 6. Mason Lino 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. David Klemmer 9. Kurt Mann 10. Jacob Saifiti 11. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 12. Aidan Guerra 13. Mitchell Barnett

Bench: 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Herman Ese’ese 16. Josh King 17. Pasami Saulo

Reserves: 18. Brodie Jones 19. Chris Randall 20. Tex Hoy 21. Jirah Momoisea

Analysis: I’ll spare readers the pain of reading another rant about how the Knights underutilise Ponga in the opposition red zone, you’re welcome. 

I’ll I can say is thank God he had that last minute try-assist for Enari Tuala. The addition of Mason Lino is bad news as you’d have to think the Kiwi playmaker takes the goal-kicking duties.

It certainly shouldn’t impact KP’s spot in your team, but captaining him now becomes a huge risk.

Kurt Mann shifted between 5/8 and hooker on several occasions due to injuries. He’s been named at hooker which is a relief for owners as his base there is so strong, although it doesn’t really matter where he plays.

I touched on Mitch Barnett as a potential POD last week. He went big with 90 points including 35 tackles, 18 runs, three offloads, four tackle busts and a linebreak, not a bad stat sheet that. 

He’s a serious POD option to replace Taumalolo having played 80 minutes in back-to-back weeks.

David Klemmer scored 81 points in 66 minutes. With that game time he’d be a must, but it was surely inflated with injuries to Starford To’a and Blake Green. Regardless, he is on a tear for owners with a 3RA of 78PPG.

The call to go him over Papalii and Paulo is looking better by the week, I just wish I’d followed suit.

Embed from Getty Images

SHARKS v COWBOYS

Saturday, 5.30pm, Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Josh Dugan 4. Jesse Ramien 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Connor Tracey 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Braden Hamlin-Uele 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Aaron Woods 11. Briton Nikora 12. Wade Graham 13. Toby Rudolf

Bench: 14. Siosifa Talakai 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Jack Williams 17. Royce Hunt

Reserves: 18. Teig Wilton 19. Bryson Goodwin 20. Matt Moylan 21. Andrew Fifita

Analysis: It’s a massive relief for Shaun Johnson owners to see him named following the birth of his child. Let’s hope his groin is good enough to kick. He could go large in this clash. 

Siosifa Talakai flopped for new owners with 42 points. The loss of SJ cruelled his output tremendously.

In a savage blow he’s been benched with Briton Nikora returning to his back-row role, and is now unplayable.

Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Justin O’Neill 4. Murray Taulagi 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Michael Morgan 8. Francis Molo 9. Reuben Cotter 10. Jordan McLean 11. Mitchell Dunn 12. Coen Hess 13. Josh McGuire

Bench: 14. Jake Granville 15. John Asiata 16. Tom Gilbert 17. Corey Jensen

Reserves: 18. Shane Wright 19. Jake Clifford 20. Connelly Lemuele 21. Peter Hola

Analysis: The big news here is the injury to Jason Taumalolo who is owned by 99% of the top 1,000 ranked SuperCoaches and 97% of the top 20,000.

Fortunately we aren’t short on options to replace the big fella with. It will help to make sides a little more unique which is always exciting.

The Cowboys have lost all SuperCoach relevance with JT’s injury, although Josh McGuire should see an increase in minutes and can score well as we’ve seen this season.

Embed from Getty Images

PANTHERS v TIGERS

Saturday, 7.35pm, Panthers Stadium, Penrith

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Josh Mansour 3. Brent Naden 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. James Tamou 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Moses Leota 11. Isaah Yeo 12. Liam Martin 13. James Fisher-Harris

Bench: 14. Tyrone May 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Billy Burns 17. Zane Tetevano

Reserves: 18. Daine Laurie 19. Kurt Capewell 20. Matt Burton 21. Pat Hollis

Analysis: Where to start with this raging hot Penrith outfit? There’s hardly a bad buy from 1-17. Their run home includes: Tigers, Broncos, Eels, Cowboys and Bulldogs, wow…

Josh Mansour belted out 118 against the Sharks with a pair of tries and 36 in base stats. At $525k, with a breakeven of 1 and still in relative POD range he’s a terrific buy. With opposition defences zeroing in on Stephen Crichton it’s beginning to pay off for Mansour after getting little ball from his centre earlier in the year.

Crichton has far more of a reliance on try-scoring than his winger with a base of 25.

He has 11 tries in his past 10 games. You’d think the try-scoring run would have to end soon, but in this side with the draw ahead I’d be surprised if it did. He remains a superb buy at the same price as Mansour.

If I was choosing between the two, which I did last week, it’d be Mansour, but you shouldn’t go wrong either way. There’s also the risk Mansour gets a rest before the end of the season, so that’s something to seriously consider.

No need to add much extra on Nathan Cleary who is likely to be the highest scoring player over the final five rounds. He’s a great captaincy option this week. If a depleted Roosters outfit can put 38 on the Tigers imagine what a near full strength Panthers outfit can do at home.

Particularly with those generous try-assists he’s been getting…

42% of the top 20,000 ranked teams still owned Jarome Luai prior to kick off last weekend. I suspect the decision to play him or not would have decided many head-to-head results with a score of 110. I wasn’t one of the lucky ones…

With the run ahead and injuries everywhere he can be held if needed with his dual HFB-5/8 status the main reason.

But if selling him gets you the likes of Cleary or Munster over the next few weeks I’d certainly do it. I’d be reluctant to play him in 17s for the rest of the season, however he’s a fine back up option if injuries strike.

Brian To’o is a super POD for the run home, but I’d be waiting a week before jumping on to see how he returns after a lengthy injury lay off.

Api Koroisau looks to be out for a minimum of one week. If you have the cash to go him to Cam Smith that looks a great play. If not, swinging Cam McInnes to hooker to get another gun 2RF in is another option.

Viliame Kikau is suspended, pushing Isaah Yeo to an edge. Kurt Capewell has been named on the extended bench.

Tigers: 1. Adam Doueihi 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Joey Leilua 4. Moses Mbye 5. Tommy Talau 6. Luke Brooks 7. Benji Marshall 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Harry Grant 10. Thomas Mikaele 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Luke Garner 13. Alex Twal

Bench: 14. Matt Eisenhuth 15. Elijah Taylor 16. Jacob Liddle 17. Shawn Blore

Reserves: 18. Chris Lawrence 19. Sam McIntyre 20. Josh Reynolds 21. Asu Kepaoa

Analysis: A try on the buzzer saved David Nofoaluma’s score which would have been early 40s had he not crossed. If your team is in the fortunate position to bench him this week while maintaining a gun CTW it’s a decent anti-POD play to sit him without selling. As for actually selling, I’ll leave that decision up to you… 

Luciano Leilua is a sell having notched just 49 points with the attacking stats finally eluding him. However, the injury to Taumalolo will probably make that a luxury trade. He’s a pretty handy 18^th man to have for the rest of the season if injuries have plagued your side.

I wouldn’t be buying Harry Grant with Jacob Liddle likely to eat into his minutes.

Embed from Getty Images

STORM v SEA EAGLES

Sunday, 4.05pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium

Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Marion Seve 3. Brenko Lee 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Tom Eisenhuth 13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Bench: 14. Nicho Hynes 15. Tino Faasuamaleaui 16. Sandor Earl 17. Darryn Schonig

Reserves: 18. Ryley Jacks 19. Chris Lewis 20. Albert Vete 21. Isaac Lumelume

Analysis: Cam Munster and Cam Smith have been named to return and this match up looks glorious for the Storm. 

Although depleted with injuries, Manly have an unbelievable ability to get up against their foes. The Storm did despatch them 18-4 back in the season opener at Brookie though.

With games against the Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs, Cowboys, Tigers and Dragons to finish the season, Smith and Munster are basically must-haves. But with the carnage of teams this week it may have to wait a week.

At $727k you’ll have to fork out plenty for Smith, but with Taumalolo and Koroisau injured, and plenty running McInnes at hooker, it should be feasible. 

Furthermore, having missed a chunk of games you’d think it’s unlikely he gets his standard late season rest from Craig Bellamy.

Sea Eagles: 1. Tevita Funa 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Brad Parker 4. Jack Gosiewski 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Cade Cust 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Danny Levi 10. Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson 12. Curtis Sironen 13. Jake Trbojevic 

Bench: 14. Lachlan Croker 15. Corey Waddell 16. Sean Keppie 17. Taniela Paseka

Reserves: 18. Albert Hopoate 19. Abbas Miski 20. Morgan Boyle 21. Haumole Olakau’atu

Analysis: Daly Cherry-Evans continues to dig in for his owners despite a few ordinary score lines. He scored 67 and is ticking along well for anyone who brought him in in Tommy Turbo’s absence.

Addin Fonua-Blake scored just 40 in 45 minutes and obviously can’t be considered at the moment.

Jake Trbojevic put together 58 which is pretty decent in a game where 72 points were scored. With a 5RA of 78PPG he’s a strong replacement for Taumalolo at the relatively low ownership of 26% among the top 20,000 ranked teams.

Embed from Getty Images

RAIDERS v BULLDOGS

Sunday, 6.30pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Raiders: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Jordan Rapana 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Curtis Scott 5. Nick Cotric 6. Jack Wighton 7. George Williams 8. Josh Papalii 9. Siliva Havili 10. Dunamis Lui 11. John Bateman 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Hudson Young

Bench: 14. Tom Starling 15. Joseph Tapine 16. Ryan Sutton 17. Matt Timoko

Reserves: 18. Sam Williams 19. Harley Smith-Shields 20. Kai O’Donnell 21. Matt Frawley

Analysis: The past two weeks have proven my strong belief that Jack Wighton and George Williams should never be considered. Wighton destroyed the Titans and scored 95 points which is okay, but probably not a true reflection of his dominance. 

The Raiders crushed the Broncos the week earlier and he scored just 40. George put on a masterclass against the Broncos for just 96 points, and backed it up with 24 against the Titans.

Their scoring doesn’t quite translate well enough to SuperCoach compared to the guns in their position, and their ceiling isn’t big enough to warrant the risk.

I replaced Payne Haas with Josh Papalii last week, and my fears were confirmed when he played just 39 minutes. Fortunately he still managed an acceptable 53 points. With an easy run home this could continue so it’s a huge concern and I wouldn’t be buying anymore.

John Bateman couldn’t record any major attacking stats (outside of a forced drop out) in the rout, but scored well enough with 64 points. He’s not a must-have, but he’s probably my number two 2RF trade in option for Taumalolo behind Matterson.

Bulldogs: 1. Will Hopoate 2. Nick Meaney 3. Marcelo Montoya 4. Kerrod Holland 5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 6. Kieran Foran 7. Lachlan Lewis 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Dylan Napa 11. Josh Jackson 12. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 13. Aiden Tolman

Bench: 14. Sione Katoa 15. Renouf To’omaga 16. Dean Britt 17. Matt Doorey

Reserves: 19. Luke Thompson 20. Jack Cogger 21. Reimis Smith 22. Tim Lafai

Analysis: Will Hopoate returned from injury in super style with 85 points. Disregarding his injury impacted 2 point game, Hoppa has four games at fullback this season for scores of 85, 80, 56 and 71. 

He racks up an enormous amount of runs, offloads and is at the centre of all of Canterbury’s attacking raids, great option.

It might be worth waiting a week though. Hoppa has a breakeven of 84, although at $464k that’s not much of an issue.

The Dogs play the Raiders this week in Canberra which will prove to be tough scoring, but that’s followed by matches against the Titans and Sea Eagles once he bottoms out.

SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY

MPG = Minutes per game

PPG = Points per game

PPM= Points per minute

BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)

POD = Point of difference

3RA = Three round average

5RA = Five round average

BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price rise.

*Please note all our stats are taken from the geniuses at nrlsupercoachstats.com