Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
Final Word: Trades, tactics, weather, RD 13
We have the final say on the major Round 13 plays, including weather reports, super PODs, trades and more.
Final Word
January 25, 2021
- GUN SHOW: Last year’s champion on the players set for a big finish
- POD HUNTER: Low ownership picks for the SuperCoach run home
We’ve arrived at the final round of the SuperCoach regular season.
Following Round 13, we enter finals time and will be given unlimited trades for the remainder of the tournament.
The Cooma Stallions had a fairly underwhelming round with just 511 points, although it only led to a small rank drop to 1,443 overall.
If someone could remind Dawid Malan he’s the top ranked batsmen in world T20 cricket it’ll do wonders for my side…
There’s plenty of rain around Adelaide and Melbourne where the final four games will be held, so do your best to make trades as late as possible to avoid rain affected games which looks likely at this stage.
Let’s take a look at SuperCoach Round 13.
Embed from Getty ImagesWEATHER WATCH
All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Monday, 12pm. All times are in AEDT. Forecasts are subject to change.
MONDAY
7:15PM: Strikers v Thunder, Adelaide Oval
Forecast: Humid, afternoon rain, 32 degrees, 90% chance of 5-15mm of rain, most likely in the early afternoon and evening.
TUESDAY
12:30PM: Heat v Scorchers, Adelaide Oval
Forecast: Partly cloudy, 24 degrees, 30% chance of 0-0.02mm of rain.
3:50PM: Renegades v Hurricanes, MCG, Melbourne
7:30PM: Stars v Sixers, MCG, Melbourne
Forecast: Rain easing, 22 degrees, 90% chance of 10-20mm of rain. Rain easing to lighter showers by the afternoon.
Embed from Getty ImagesSUPER PODS
Each week one of our contributors will provide a full analysis on the point of difference (POD) players to consider.
In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 5% ownership (or around about) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.
They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.
In last round’s article, Mitchell Swepson was impressive with 58 points, while Sean Abbott lived up to his SuperCoach hype with 70 points in his first game of the season.
Nathan Ellis
So at 8.5% ownership Ellis isn’t technically a super POD, but he’s still in very few teams and deserves a mention.
Ellis has been superb this tournament and is coming off a score of 98 points, taking his three round average to 79.
Matty Wade’s return add stacks of class and firepower to a Hurricanes batting line up that is looking extremely impressive, and it only bodes well for Ellis and the attack if they’re putting up big scores to chase.
Ellis has four scores over 87 and has only scored below 34 once in 12 games.
Furthermore, with a breakeven of -35 he’s set to make plenty of money this week.
Adam Milne
I was just $100 off getting Milne in last week at the absolute bargain price of $75k!
He produced a spectacular performance against the Strikers last round with 1/6 off four overs for 85 SuperCoach points.
It was the performance we’ve waited for from Milne who is owned by just 1.6% of teams, has a -5 breakeven and is still just $85,700.
While there’s risk in the fact he’s only averaging 32 this season, there’s serious class there and he could be a massive POD for the final round.
Embed from Getty ImagesTRADES
As mentioned above, I’ll be waiting as late as possible to make all my trades to avoid any rain affected matches as best as possible.
As my first trade I’m thinking of getting Milne into my side. While there’s risk involved, the Thunder play in game one of the round, so I can sit him on my bench and use the auto-emergency loophole if he performs well.
With a negative breakeven he’ll make cash which will be handy when picking a new team for next round.
I brought Abbott last round and was very happy with the call, and at low ownership he’s still a great buy this week.
At $167k I also like Travis Head who rolled the arm over for two overs against the Thunder and made 31 off 24 with the bat.
Again, he’s playing in the first game of the round so he’s perfect for the auto-emergency loophole tactic.
My final trade is up in the air as it’ll depend largely on how my auto-emergency loop options perform.
I may need to bring in another gun bat if they all flop, but if they score well I may just burn the final trade on a player with a low breakeven to generate additional cash for next round.
For my skipper I’m tossing up between Marcus Stoinis and Abbott, but I think I’ll go with the Stars opener.
Embed from Getty ImagesHis upside is immense while batting well and bowling a few overs each game.
My vice-captain will depend on how the weather is looking, but it may have to be someone in game one such as Alex Hales.
Ideally it’d be D’Arcy Short, but he plays in game three which makes it difficult to swing if he goes big.
Good luck to everyone this round, and watch the weather!!!
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It’s worth mentioning risks with some of the guns this round due to the forced sale of any players who don’t make the finals.
Guns like Maxi and McDermott have huge BE’s this round due to a couple of poor games in a row, and they’re no guarantee of playing next round as their teams could easily miss the post-season. If they have another low score this round, coaches could be forced to sell them for mid-rangers instead of guns.
Worth considering punting guys like them for guns with better BE’s (e.g. Carey), then you can always use the unlimited trades next round to bring them if their teams make it back in and will even make a tidy profit if they drop in price a lot.
Hey mate, yep absolutely.
Generating that easy extra cash this week will be key, especially with starting XI’s all pretty strong this deep into the competition.
Massive tactical round this, just a pity the rain is making it extremely unpredictable!
– TW