Michael Fisher
SC expert, NRL best 9th overall, BBL 14th
Match-ups are vital to SuperCoach success, luckily Fish has put the work in to find the best ones to target and avoid in Round 17.
Stat analysisThere were mixed results last round from my player matchup data predictions. The match result was perhaps the more important factor, due to the Scorchers winning so heavily.
Nonetheless, Liam Livingstone and Fawad Ahmed both backed up their favourable player matchup stats.
I expect the BBL Final to be a little more evenly contested, even though the Sixers dominated when these teams met in the first round of the finals.
Now onto the player matchups.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe data favours Steve O’Keefe in the final, with only the Scorchers’ lower-order bats having favourable records against left-arm orthodox bowling. The stats are a little less favourable for fellow left-armer, Ben Dwarshuis, who is classified as left-arm medium by cricmetric.com.
The matchups also look reasonable to me for right-arm quick Sean Abbott, whilst less so for the right-arm medium pacers Carlos Braithwaite, Jackson Bird, Jake Ball and Dan Christian.
Abbott and O’Keefe may be used to target in-form opener Liam Livingstone, perhaps reducing the English allrounders’ appeal as a captaincy option.
Embed from Getty ImagesTable 1: Scorchers’ batsman vs opposing bowler type, T20s over the last 3 years (extracted from cricmetric.com)
Versus Player Type | Outs | Avg | SR |
Liam Livingstone | |||
Left-arm Medium | 4 | 44.5 | 124.5 |
Left-arm Orthodox | 9 | 22.9 | 114.4 |
Right-arm Fast | 8 | 23 | 149.6 |
Right-arm Medium | 32 | 33 | 154.3 |
All bowling types | 77 | 29.4 | 143.6 |
Cameron Bancroft | |||
Left-arm Medium | 2 | 46 | 133.3 |
Left-arm Orthodox | 2 | 29.5 | 120.4 |
Right-arm Fast | 2 | 43.5 | 124.3 |
Right-arm Medium | 10 | 39.9 | 121.3 |
All bowling types | 25 | 36.3 | 121.4 |
Jason Roy | |||
Left-arm Medium | 4 | 49.2 | 131.3 |
Left-arm Orthodox | 10 | 18.8 | 128.8 |
Right-arm Fast | 7 | 21.9 | 139.1 |
Right-arm Medium | 16 | 31.9 | 132.5 |
All bowling types | 50 | 27.7 | 131.4 |
Colin Munro | |||
Left-arm Medium | 8 | 40.4 | 153.8 |
Left-arm Orthodox | 10 | 18.7 | 116.1 |
Right-arm Fast | 5 | 41.4 | 116.9 |
Right-arm Medium | 38 | 30.7 | 147 |
All bowling types | 88 | 30.4 | 138.8 |
Josh Inglis | |||
Left-arm Medium | 1 | 77 | 179.1 |
Left-arm Orthodox | 3 | 26.7 | 170.2 |
Right-arm Fast | 4 | 26.2 | 136.4 |
Right-arm Medium | 16 | 26.6 | 139.7 |
All bowling types | 29 | 31.7 | 144.3 |
Mitch Marsh | |||
Left-arm Medium | 0 | – | 215 |
Left-arm Orthodox | 2 | 19 | 84.4 |
Right-arm Fast | 2 | 25.5 | 182.1 |
Right-arm Medium | 10 | 45.2 | 149.2 |
All bowling types | 24 | 33.8 | 137.1 |
Ashton Turner | |||
Left-arm Medium | 18 | 19.2 | 123.6 |
Left-arm Orthodox | 17 | 26.6 | 125.5 |
Right-arm Fast | 10 | 34 | 141.7 |
Right-arm Medium | 42 | 33.3 | 130.2 |
All bowling types | 114 | 29.6 | 128.8 |
Aaron Hardie | |||
Left-arm Medium | 1 | 7 | 100 |
Left-arm Orthodox | 0 | – | 50 |
Right-arm Fast | 1 | 2 | 28.6 |
Right-arm Medium | 2 | 35.5 | 154.3 |
All bowling types | 5 | 21 | 111.7 |
Jhye Richardson | |||
Left-arm Medium | 2 | 0.5 | 25 |
Left-arm Orthodox | 1 | 23 | 143.8 |
Right-arm Fast | 0 | – | 123.1 |
Right-arm Medium | 3 | 50.7 | 176.7 |
All bowling types | 9 | 23.1 | 147.5 |
You could also factor in the Sixers’ bowling records vs right/left handers, with Munro the only left-hander in the Scorcher’s batting line-up. This data also favours O’Keefe in particular.
Table 2: Sixers’ bowlers vs opposing batter type, T20s over the last 3 years (extracted from cricmetric.com)
Sixers | Wickets | Econ | SR |
Sean Abbott | |||
Left | 14 | 7.43 | 12.6 |
Right | 39 | 8.81 | 14.3 |
Total | 53 | 8.48 | 13.8 |
Jackson Bird | |||
Left | 7 | 6.86 | 25 |
Right | 16 | 7.45 | 22.8 |
Total | 23 | 7.26 | 23.5 |
Steve O’Keefe | |||
Left | 13 | 7.3 | 34.3 |
Right | 58 | 6.43 | 19.7 |
Total | 71 | 6.67 | 22.4 |
Ben Dwarshuis | |||
None | 0 | 6 | – |
Left | 23 | 7.02 | 18.5 |
Right | 59 | 8.46 | 17.1 |
Total | 82 | 8.03 | 17.5 |
Carlos Brathwaite | |||
Left | 26 | 9.17 | 17.4 |
Right | 49 | 8.25 | 17.3 |
Total | 75 | 8.57 | 17.3 |
Jake Ball | |||
Left | 6 | 8.9 | 23.8 |
Right | 28 | 9.29 | 14.2 |
Total | 34 | 9.18 | 15.9 |
In terms of the Sixers’ batting line-up, the matchups look a little less appealing to me for Fawad Ahmed’s legspin than in the match against the Heat. The Sixers also have a good record against right-arm fast bowlers, perhaps reducing the appeal of Jhye Richardson as a captaincy option.
The Sixers boast a pretty good line-up in general. However, there are a few players the Scorchers could look to target with left-armer Jason Behrendorff (including Josh Philippe, Moises Henriques and Carlos Braithwaite).
Table 3: Sixers’ batsman vs opposing bowler type, T20s over the last 3 years (extracted from cricmetric.com)
Versus Player Type | Outs | Avg | SR |
Josh Phillipe | |||
Left-arm Medium | 6 | 20.3 | 105.2 |
Right-arm Fast | 4 | 34.2 | 139.8 |
Right-arm Legbreak | 9 | 27.6 | 162.1 |
Right-arm Medium | 14 | 40.2 | 137.7 |
Right-arm Offbreak | 2 | 51 | 129.1 |
All bowling types | 40 | 34.2 | 140.2 |
James Vince | |||
Left-arm Medium | 8 | 36.4 | 144.8 |
Right-arm Fast | 11 | 21.2 | 122.6 |
Right-arm Legbreak | 10 | 36.6 | 141.9 |
Right-arm Medium | 30 | 33.7 | 135.6 |
Right-arm Offbreak | 7 | 28.4 | 124.4 |
All bowling types | 79 | 31.5 | 134.8 |
Daniel Hughes | |||
Left-arm Medium | 3 | 37.3 | 134.9 |
Right-arm Fast | 1 | 148 | 127.6 |
Right-arm Legbreak | 12 | 16.7 | 125.8 |
Right-arm Medium | 13 | 34.4 | 129.6 |
Right-arm Offbreak | 7 | 20.6 | 108.3 |
All bowling types | 39 | 30 | 125.5 |
Moises Henriques | |||
Left-arm Medium | 4 | 19 | 120.6 |
Right-arm Fast | 2 | 55 | 224.5 |
Right-arm Legbreak | 8 | 26.1 | 117.4 |
Right-arm Medium | 12 | 30.9 | 133.5 |
Right-arm Offbreak | 2 | 35.5 | 134 |
All bowling types | 33 | 29.5 | 131.8 |
Jordan Silk | |||
Left-arm Medium | 6 | 17 | 164.5 |
Right-arm Fast | 2 | 41 | 126.2 |
Right-arm Legbreak | 4 | 37 | 94.3 |
Right-arm Medium | 11 | 38.3 | 137.1 |
Right-arm Offbreak | 1 | 58 | 103.6 |
All bowling types | 27 | 34.8 | 125.2 |
Dan Christian | |||
Left-arm Medium | 4 | 53.8 | 177.7 |
Right-arm Fast | 5 | 45.2 | 159.2 |
Right-arm Legbreak | 6 | 44.5 | 134.2 |
Right-arm Medium | 32 | 29.5 | 168.1 |
Right-arm Offbreak | 6 | 15.5 | 96.9 |
All bowling types | 63 | 31.1 | 150 |
Carlos Brathwaite | |||
Left-arm Medium | 2 | 16 | 123.1 |
Right-arm Fast | 7 | 4.3 | 90.9 |
Right-arm Legbreak | 4 | 14 | 100 |
Right-arm Medium | 19 | 18.2 | 155.4 |
Right-arm Offbreak | 0 | – | 45.8 |
All bowling types | 40 | 12.8 | 121.2 |
Sean Abbott | |||
Left-arm Medium | 2 | 17 | 141.7 |
Right-arm Fast | 0 | – | 50 |
Right-arm Legbreak | 4 | 6.2 | 86.2 |
Right-arm Medium | 4 | 10 | 142.9 |
Right-arm Offbreak | 1 | 14 | 93.3 |
All bowling types | 12 | 10.4 | 113.6 |
The Sixers are another team with just the one left-hander in their batting line-up (Dan Hughes). This favours Jhye Richardson and Liam Livingstone (if he bowls).
It’s also worth noting that I haven’t updated the table below since the Heat match. A number of Scorchers were successful against the Heat’s right-hand dominant batting line-up. Notably, this included Jason Behrendorff, who snared the key wickets of Chris Lynn and Joe Denly.
Table 4: Scorchers’ bowlers vs opposing batter type, T20s over the last 3 years (extracted from cricmetric.com)
Scorchers | Wickets | Econ | SR |
Jason Behrendorff | |||
Left | 27 | 7.23 | 17.9 |
Right | 54 | 7.15 | 19.4 |
Total | 81 | 7.17 | 18.9 |
Jhye Richardson | |||
Left | 15 | 7.43 | 20.4 |
Right | 52 | 7.72 | 15.5 |
Total | 67 | 7.64 | 16.6 |
Andrew Tye | |||
Left | 24 | 8.47 | 18.5 |
Right | 70 | 8.16 | 17.4 |
Total | 94 | 8.24 | 17.7 |
Fawad Ahmed | |||
Switch hits | 1 | 3.6 | 5 |
Left | 39 | 7.2 | 19.2 |
Right | 88 | 6.98 | 18.6 |
Total | 128 | 7.04 | 18.7 |
Aaron Hardie | |||
Left | 7 | 7.86 | 8.3 |
Right | 2 | 8.81 | 94 |
Total | 9 | 8.59 | 27.3 |
Liam Livingstone | |||
Switch hits | 0 | 7.71 | – |
Left | 7 | 8.43 | 20.4 |
Right | 36 | 7.79 | 11.8 |
Total | 43 | 7.95 | 13.4 |
Finally, there’s five players of interest who I’ve decided to analyse for direct player matchups, being Philippe, Abbott, Dwarshuis, Richardson and Behrendorff.
Phillipe’s record looks solid enough, although his record against Behrendorff backs up the earlier data vs left-arm mediums.
Table 5 – Josh Philippe player matchups (career T20s, extracted from cricmetric.com)
Versus Player | Runs | Outs | Avg | SR |
AJ Tye | 50 | 0 | – | 238.1 |
Fawad Ahmed | 57 | 1 | 57 | 172.7 |
JA Richardson | 37 | 1 | 37 | 185 |
JP Behrendorff | 21 | 1 | 21 | 91.3 |
AM Hardie | 21 | 0 | – | 161.5 |
LS Livingstone | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50 |
Of the bowlers, I like the look of Jhye Richardson’s record best. I also think a case can be made for leaving out Abbott and/or Dwarshuis, especially if you think the Scorchers will win.
Table 6: Key player matchups – bowlers (career T20s, extracted from cricmetric.com)
Versus Player | Runs | Wickets | Econ | SR |
Jason Behrendorff | ||||
JM Vince | 29 | 0 | 10.88 | – |
JR Philippe | 22 | 1 | 5.74 | 23 |
DP Hughes | 22 | 0 | 8.25 | – |
MC Henriques | 12 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
JC Silk | 25 | 0 | 7.89 | – |
DT Christian | 18 | 0 | 6.75 | – |
Jhye Richardson | ||||
JM Vince | 32 | 1 | 6.4 | 30 |
JR Philippe | 38 | 1 | 11.4 | 20 |
DP Hughes | 55 | 1 | 7.33 | 45 |
MC Henriques | 24 | 2 | 7.58 | 9.5 |
JC Silk | 29 | 1 | 6.21 | 28 |
DT Christian | 8 | 1 | 12 | 4 |
CR Brathwaite | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
SA Abbott | 8 | 0 | 16 | – |
Sean Abbott | ||||
LS Livingstone | 1 | 0 | 6 | – |
JJ Roy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
CT Bancroft | 29 | 0 | 11.6 | – |
C Munro | 10 | 0 | 10 | – |
JP Inglis | 9 | 0 | 9 | – |
MR Marsh | 37 | 1 | 9.65 | 23 |
AJ Turner | 74 | 3 | 12 | 12.3 |
JA Richardson | 14 | 1 | 6.46 | 13 |
Ben Dwarshuis | ||||
LS Livingstone | 11 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
JJ Roy | 7 | 0 | 5.25 | – |
CT Bancroft | 11 | 0 | 4.12 | – |
C Munro | 17 | 0 | 17 | – |
JP Inglis | 28 | 0 | 8.84 | – |
MR Marsh | 12 | 0 | 8 | – |
AJ Turner | 22 | 2 | 6.6 | 10 |
JA Richardson | 6 | 2 | 3.6 | 5 |
We saw last round how pivotal the match result can be to SuperCoach scores. I think SuperCoaches should first consider how the final will play out, then delve into other factors, including player matchups.
This final should be a cracker, with arguably the best two teams in BBL history facing-off. The Sixers have home ground advantage and a last start win against the Scorchers.
However, I think the Scorchers will learn from the loss in the opening round of the finals to bounce back and claim BBL10 (sorry Thommo….).
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Embed from Getty ImagesWith this in mind, the matchups look good to me for Richardson (who I plan to captain) and Behrendorff in particular.
I’m also contemplating leaving out some or all of Philippe, Abbott and Dwarshuis. With only 22 players to choose from, I think it will be tricky to leave all of them out. Two out of three could be the play.
Thanks for reading and listening throughout the season. All the best for 2021 and we hope to see you back for the NRL season and then BBL11!
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