Positional analysis: 7 key questions to start the year

• TRIAL RECAP: Key notes from the NRL pre-season fixtures
• LOOKING BACK: Tim Williams analyses his Round 1 team in 2020

First off, thanks to nrlsupercoachstats.com for their incredible stats, which I’ve utilised for this analysis.

“Steadily develop indirect tactics, either by pounding the enemy’s flanks or falling on his rear” (From “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu).

I often ponder this theory. In SuperCoach terms, what this means to me is taking any positional advantage you can get. In this article I’m looking at this literally, in terms of what player positions can give my team the biggest advantage.

Perhaps the greatest example of the position debate in years gone by is Cameron Smith in the pre-Damien Cook era. In both 2016 and 2017 Smith averaged around 15 points better than the next best player in the hooker position.

For a more recent example, we need look no further than Teddy, who averaged 15 points better than the next best fullback last season (excluding 2-gamer Charlie Staines).

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He also averaged 12 points better than any other player in Supercoach for that matter.

Not owning Teddy prior to his run of big scores signalled the death nell on the season of many SuperCoaches, yours truly included.

So, to dive deeper, I’ve analysed the top averaging players in each position vs the rest.

One challenge with this, as we regularly hear with investment disclaimers, is that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Another issue is that a key part of building a round 1 squad is about picking undervalued players.

However, one strategy that has attracted a lot of discussion lately is ‘points over cash’. Furthermore, trading high-ceiling players in at the right time can be crucial to any SuperCoach campaign. This was a key learning from site founder Tim Williams’ run to finishing 2nd overall in 2020.

I think this is a salient point from Tim, especially given what I perceive to be an increase in ‘high-ceiling’ players in SuperCoach. However, I also think there’s a lot of merit in finding consistent guns who can chalk up SC points for your side week in week out.

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To summarise, I’d say SuperCoaches need to get the right players, in the right positions, at the right time. This article takes a look at the position part of that equation.

I think it’s also worth considering a popular strategy from Fantasy Premier League, being ‘price points’ or ‘price brackets’. The idea is to pick players at price points that have several good options, so that it’s easy to trade/swap to another player.

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I think the difference in the application of this strategy between FPL and SuperCoach is greater price-rises in SC. Nonetheless, I can still see an application for the concept.

This strategy also adds merit to the case for starting with the top priced guns, who give you the option to trade down if you need.

So, all that being said, I’ve picked three key statistics to take a look at in each position over the last three years.

1. The highest individual scores.
2. Player averages.
3. % of 60+ scores.

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“SC is all about ceilings” – (Tim Williams, probably)

There is a trend toward higher individual scores over the last three years in SuperCoach.

This dates back to the ‘penalty era’ of 2018, moving forward to the ‘6-again era’ of 2020.

The challenge this poses is central to the point of timing, as those of us who missed out on Tedesco’s big scores last season so brutally found out.

Looking at the contributions of each position to these scores, we can see the increase in fullback and CTW high scores in particular. So, trading in players in these positions at the right time was all the more crucial.

There is one more point I noticed in pulling together the below, and it could be absolutely crucial. The final round of the season is more likely to generate a mega individual score from a player. I’ve indicated those scores that occurred in the final round in bold.

(Notes: 1. I’ve utilised a player’s actual position in a game to generate the above. 2. Alex Johnston, Daniel Tupou, Nathan Cleary and Damien Cook tied for the 20^th highest score in 2020, so I’ve represented this as 1 for CTW, 1 for HK and 1 for HB).

Highest individual scores – 2020

Score	Player	Position
203	Cody Walker	5/8
199	James Tedesco	FLB
178	James Tedesco	FLB
176	James Tedesco	FLB
172	Matt Ikuvalu	CTW
172	Kalyn Ponga	FLB
166	Clint Gutherson	FLB
159	Kalyn Ponga	FLB
158	Kalyn Ponga	FLB
158	Charlie Staines	CTW
157	Tom Starling	HK
154	Alex Johnston	CTW
152	Tom Trbojevic	FLB
145	Maika Sivo	CTW
144	Brett Morris	CTW
142	Addin Fonua Blake	FRF
142	Dane Gagai	CTW
141	Latrell Mitchell	FLB
140	Luke Keary	5/8
138	Nathan Cleary	HFB
138	Damien Cook	HK
138	Alex Johnston	CTW
138	Daniel Tupou	CTW
159.8	AVE (TOP 20)

Highest individual scores – 2019

Score	Player	Position
186	Nathan Cleary	HFB
167	Tom Trbojevic	FLB
161	Latrell Mitchell	CTW
159	Cameron Munster	5/8
156	Daly Cherry-Evans	HFB
155	James Tedesco	FLB
152	Maika Sivo	CTW
152	Tom Trbojevic	FLB
150	Cody Walker	5/8
146	Damien Cook	HK
145	Paul Momirovski	CTW
141	Corey Harawira-Naera	2RF
139	Nathan Cleary	HFB
138	Jason Taumalolo	2RF
136	Joey Manu	FLB
134	Ben Hunt	HFB
134	James Tedesco	FLB
133	Mitchell Moses	HFB
133	James Tedesco	FLB
132	Manu Mau	2RF
147.45	AVE (TOP 20)

Highest individual scores – 2018

Score	Player	Position
194	Tom Trbojevic	FLB
180	James Tedesco	FLB
173	Gareth Widdop	5/8
158	Tom Trbojevic	FLB
156	Josh Addo-Carr	CTW
153	Rhyse Martin	2RF
148	Latrell Mitchell	CTW
147	Robert Jennings	CTW
144	Robert Jennings	CTW
139	Ryan James	FRF
139	Phillip Sami	CTW
138	Jai Arrow	2RF
138	Jarrod Croker	CTW
138	Michael Gordon	FLB
138	Joseph Tapine	2RF
137	John Sutton	2RF
137	Mitchell Moses	HFB
135	Will Hopoate	FLB
134	Mitchell Moses	HFB
134	Matt Moylan	5/8
148	AVE (TOP 20)

Player averages

Now let’s take a look at the best averaging players by position. No surprises here that fullbacks have ascended to the top, largely thanks to the likes of Teddy, Ponga and Turbo.

So, does this make Fullback the most important position to ‘gun-up’ in? Yes and no, in my fence-sitting opinion.

Yes, in the sense that SuperCoaches need a player to captain each week. The highest averaging position/player seems the logical place to get this from. No, in the sense that starting teams are largely about player value. This brings into question the need for dual gun fullbacks in my opinion. More on that later.

Note that in all the below diagrams and tables I have included duals, except for CTW duals, who I have always allocated to the CTW position. This is on the assumption that a CTW dual is always best selected in the CTW position.

I’ve also only included players who played in 10 or more games in any given season.

60+ Scores

It could also pay to look at consistency of guns in your starting team. Second-rowers are the standout here. Front rowers, on the other hand, saw a dip last season. This could be partially due to the rule changes to speed up the game.

The best vs the rest

Finally, let’s take a look at the difference between the best (top 5) and the rest of the players in each position. Hookers have climbed to top of this chart. Although several other positions also continued to ascend.

Interestingly, the gap between the rest of the field and the top 5 in the fullback position narrowed in 2020.

So, what can we make of all this? I think we need to come back to the earlier point about selecting the right players, in the right position, at the right time. Consequently, each position poses unique questions for each SuperCoach to consider.

Here is one question for each position that the data has me considering.

Let’s start at the top, or is it the back, uh anyway, fullbacks are who I’m talking about first.

1. Do we need dual gun fullbacks?

I don’t think this one is clear cut as it seems. I’ll be locking in at least one captaincy option (most likely Teddy), then looking at fullbacks in terms of value. Papy will be hard to pass up if goalkicking as we now expect following the trials. If not, however, it opens the second fullback spot right up in my opinion.

I consider Papy’s goalkicking to be a crucial factor for a further reason. If he gets the tee, his ceiling could reach the realms of Turbo, Ponga and Teddy. That’s four players who could go massive on their day. Fullback rotation strategy, anyone?

Fullbacks
Player	Ave	60+
2020
James Tedesco	95	82%
Kalyn Ponga	80	78%
Ryan Papenhuyzen	71	53%
Clint Gutherson	70	55%
Dylan Edwards	69	73%
Top 5 FLBs	77	68.20%
Other FLBs	51.7	34.80%
Difference (top 5 – all)	25.3	33.40%
2019
Tedesco, James	84	76%
Trbojevic, Tom	77	58%
Tuivasa-Sheck, Roger	71	70%
Munster, Cameron	69	43%
Ponga, Kalyn	68	65%
Top 5 FLBs	73.8	62.40%
Other FLBs	45.8	26.43%
Difference (top 5 – all)	28.0	35.97%
2018
Tedesco, James	74	64%
Trbojevic, Tom	74	59%
Ponga, Kalyn	66	65%
Walker, Cody	61	63%
Munster, Cameron	59	48%
Top 5 FLBs	66.8	59.80%
Other FLBs	54.6	41.33%
Difference (top 5 – all)	12.2	18.47%

2. Can we trust any of the Supercoach guns in CTW?

Only one player (Nofo) has featured consecutively in the top 5 and he’s got a pretty tough draw to start the season. Yikes.

On the other hand, CTW featured regularly in the high scores list. Therefore, timing looks all the more crucial in this position. If you do manage to jag a monster score, I think there’s a strong case for selling at a profit afterwards.

If any OOP (out-of-position player) shows gun qualities, it makes sense to me to jump on quick.

CTW
Player	Ave	60+
2020
David Nofoaluma	76	70%
Brett Morris	72	60%
Daniel Tupou	71	54%
Isaah Yeo	69	79%
Zac Lomax	68	60%
Top 5 CTWs	71.2	64.60%
Other CTWs	45.5	24.98%
Difference (top 5 – all)	25.7	39.62%
2019
Mau, Manu	73	83%
Bateman, John	72	75%
Mitchell, Latrell	70	59%
Nofoaluma, David	65	50%
Harawira-Naera, Corey	60	43%
Top 5 CTWs	68	62.00%
Other CTWs	43.7	24.98%
Difference (top 5 – all)	24.3	37.02%
2018
Holmes, Valentine	67	61%
Ferguson, Blake	65	42%
Mitchell, Latrell	64	45%
Marsters, Esan	61	50%
Blake, Waqa	59	50%
Top 5 CTWs	63.2	49.60%
Other CTWs	43.5	21.66%
Difference (top 5 – all)	19.7	27.94%

3. Is five-eighth a good place to save money?

A bit of a leading question with the likes of Watson, Moylan, Lam and Milford available. Nonetheless, it’s a valid one in my opinion.

The gap between the top 5 and the rest of the five-eighths decreased last season. However, I think this is susceptible to change if Walker’s increased role in South’s attack continues / Munster gets the goalkicking at any stage / Dylan Brown goes on a run.

5/8
Player	Ave	60+
2020
Cody Walker	74	56%
Cameron Munster	70	67%
Shaun Johnson	68	69%
Dylan Brown	64	38%
Jarome Luai	62	40%
Top 5 5/8s	67.6	54.00%
Other 5/8s	46.6	28.00%
Difference (top 5 – all)	21.1	26.00%
2019
Munster, Cameron	69	43%
Ponga, Kalyn	68	65%
Walker, Cody	65	64%
Johnson, Shaun	63	53%
Moses, Mitchell	62	50%
Top 5 5/8s	65.4	55.00%
Other 5/8s	44.9	24.96%
Difference (top 5 – all)	20.5	30.04%
2018
Johnson, Shaun	64	56%
Walker, Cody	61	63%
Munster, Cameron	59	48%
Widdop, Gareth	59	48%
Sutton, John	57	29%
Top 5 5/8s	60	48.80%
Other 5/8s	44.0	24.30%
Difference (top 5 – all)	16.0	24.50%

4. Is it worth considering anyone other than Nathan Cleary at halfback?

Cleary’s ascendency has left others in the HB position in his wake. Even more so with Johnson injured and the dual statuses of Dylan Brown and Jarome Luai removed.

The lack of halfback options presents an opportunity, but I’m not sure I favour anyone other than Cleary to capitalise on it.

One that many will be considering is Mitch Moses. He appears in the top 20 scores list twice in 2018 (although he only averaged 41 that season!) and once in 2019.

I can see merit in rolling the dice on Moses given the Eels early season draw. However, it concerns me that his average in 2019 with Dylan Brown in the side was 55, compared to 62 without. This is remarkably similar to Moses’ 2020 average (54), when he played the full season with Brown.

HFB
Player	Ave	60+
2020
Nathan Cleary	83	78%
Shaun Johnson	68	69%
Dylan Brown	64	38%
Daly Cherry-Evans	64	60%
Jarome Luai	62	40%
Top 5 HBs	68.2	57.00%
Other HBs	43.4	22.88%
Difference (top 5 – all)	24.8	34.12%
2019
Cleary, Nathan	68	57%
Johnson, Shaun	63	53%
Cherry-Evans, Daly	62	42%
Moses, Mitchell	62	50%
Hunt, Ben	60	38%
Top 5 HBs	63	48.00%
Other HBs	42.7	20.48%
Difference (top 5 – all)	20.3	27.52%
2018
Johnson, Shaun	64	56%
Cherry-Evans, Daly	62	33%
Cleary, Nathan	62	60%
Thurston, Johnathan	56	38%
Reynolds, Adam	52	29%
Top 5 HBs	59.2	43.20%
Other HBs	43.3	22.54%
Difference (top 5 – all)	15.9	20.66%

5. How relevant is front-row this year?

It can be hard to get excited about the front-row position in SuperCoach. The guns look to lack the same ceiling as other positions. It’s also one of two positions in which the top 5 average decreased from 2019 to 2020 (the other being five-eighth).

I often find it difficult to identify worthwhile trades in this position due to the low ceilings of players. One that I think we will need to plan for is Payne Haas. He can probably wait a couple of rounds after his return in round 4. Therefore, a case can be made for a mid-ranger who has upside that can be traded to Haas later on, if you can find a good one.

FRF
Player	Ave	60+
2020
Payne Hass	75	88%
Patrick Carrigan	67	79%
David Klemmer	67	60%
Aiden Tolman	65	53%
Josh McGuire	64	65%
Top 5 FRFs	67.6	69.00%
Other FRFs	45.9	20.10%
Difference (top 5 – all)	21.7	48.90%
2019
Haas, Payne	78	90%
Fisher-Harris, James	66	58%
Fonua-Blake, Addin	66	60%
Klemmer, David	66	81%
Papalii, Josh	65	61%
Top 5 FRFs	68.2	70.00%
Other FRFs	42.1	15.33%
Difference (top 5 – all)	26.1	54.67%
2018
Fifita, Andrew	68	52%
Taupau, Martin	65	58%
James, Ryan	63	39%
Tapine, Joseph	63	44%
Kikau, Viliame	61	52%
Top 5 FRFs	64	49.00%
Other FRFs	41.5	14.53%
Difference (top 5 – all)	22.5	34.47%

6. How quickly should we stack our pack with second-row guns?

I think the simple answer is ASAP. However, this year is quite unique in terms of the number of intriguing mid-rangers available in this position.

The ascendency of Angus Crichton and Ryan Matterson is notable. They are strong candidates for inclusion in SuperCoach teams for those who can find a way to fit them in.

2RF
Player	Ave	60+
2020
Angus Crichton	76	77%
Cameron McInnes	76	83%
Ryan Matterson	75	94%
Jason Taumalolo	72	88%
Tohu Harris	69	70%
Top 5 2RFs	73.6	82.40%
Other 2RFs	47.1	23.84%
Difference (top 5 – all)	26.5	58.56%
2019
Taumalolo, Jason	78	83%
Murray, Cameron	69	70%
Matterson, Ryan	67	54%
Fisher-Harris, James	66	58%
Klemmer, David	66	81%
Top 5 2RFs	69.2	69.20%
Other 2RFs	45.7	22.71%
Difference (top 5 – all)	23.5	46.49%
2018
Trbojevic, Jake	71	70%
Taumalolo, Jason	70	65%
Crichton, Angus	69	64%
Martin, Rhyse	68	57%
Arrow, Jai	64	52%
Top5 2RFs	68.4	61.60%
Other 2RFs	45.9	23.20%
Difference (top 5 – all)	22.5	38.40%

7. How risky is it to start without a gun at hooker?

The difference between the best and the rest at the hooker position concerns me. Say I start with Connor Watson at hooker and he goes down injured, it could be tricky to move up to a gun. There are plenty of mid-range options available (Watson, Lam, Hodgson, Jayden Brailey). However, I’m not sure I’m prepared to risk it.

HK
Player	Ave	60+
2020
Cameron Smith	79	75%
Cameron McInnes	76	83%
Harry Grant	71	80%
Damien Cook	70	70%
Api Koroisau	66	59%
Top 5 HKs	72.4	73.40%
Other HKs	45.0	20.83%
Difference (top 5 – all)	27.4	52.57%
2019
Cook, Damien	76	61%
Smith, Cameron	74	67%
McInnes, Cameron	68	74%
Tevaga, Jazz	57	50%
Farah, Robbie	54	43%
Top 5 HKs	65.8	59.00%
Other HKs	40.2	16.36%
Difference (top 5 – all)	25.6	42.64%
2018
Cook, Damien	78	77%
Smith, Cameron	64	57%
Hodgson, Josh	63	55%
Farah, Robbie	62	55%
McInnes, Cameron	60	46%
Top 5 HKs	65.4	58.00%
Other HKs	43.7	23.34%
Difference (top 5 – all)	21.7	34.66%

So, there you have it. More questions than answers in this article. Hopefully you can answer them with further research! I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.