Final Word: Rd 6, key trade + tactical advice

• STAT ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best in NRL SuperCoach
• TAKING STOCK: Rating the best players in each position after five rounds

Big differentiating plays can make or break your SuperCoach season and two that standout after the first five weeks are probably what sets apart the top 100 from the chasing pack. 

Starting the season with Brett Morris, Ryan Papenhuyzen and/or David Fifita has certainly set up the season. 

All three have started the season averaging over 100 SuperCoach points per week which is phenomenal. 

Another differentiating play that stands out are those gutsy SuperCoaches who made the decision to sell James Tedesco two weeks ago for Latrell Mitchell. 

It was an educated decision based on key determining factors that swayed for Latrell (mainly draw) and against Teddy (Keary out, tough draw and high BE’s upcoming). 

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Unfortunately I wasn’t one of the brave that even really considered it, but I certainly appreciate how good a play it was and is now. 

The next question those SuperCoaches have to ask themselves is how long do they continue to roll the dice without Teddy in their side? 

Certainly with a Roosters match up v Storm and a juicy Rabbitohs v Tigers this weekend I doubt they will pull the trigger on the trade back to Teddy just yet. 

Trade-wise this week I am really conflicted. I nailed it last week trading out Brandon Smith and nuffing out Andrew Davey to get in David Fifita.

This week I really liked the idea of trading in Isaiah Papali’i and Teig Wilton, but question marks have arisen for me as to just how much game time Papali’i will get and whether Teig Wilton will even be in the top 17 come round 7 and 8 with the returning Siosifa Talakai and Wade Graham’s imminent return from a HIA related rest.  

If you are interested in setting up your SuperCoach team for the upcoming Round 13 bye, check out my ‘Taking Stock’ article exclusive to SC Playbook subscribers that helps you take stock of your side and where you stand in terms of rankings, squad composition and potential cash generation. 

It’s a delicate balancing act of all three and no more so than in the 2021 season. 

The article breaks down each position and analyses the players you should have, could have and will want to have before we hit the Round 13 bye. 

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PODs & Super PODS 

After five rounds here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and Super PODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar. I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on: 

PODs (My top 5 ranked) 

1. Ryan Matterson/Isaiah Papali’i – At $530k if you haven’t got Papali’i you probably need to see first whether Matto is going to return to the side before bringing him in to your side. 

Undoubtedly the most improved player in the comp, but at that price you need Papali’i to score around 60-63 a week to just make value. 

He’s very likely to do that if he can get 55-60 minutes a week, but in that forward rotation with Shaun Lane and Matterson likely to play 80 minutes when fit he might struggle to see more than 45 minutes max. Matto remains the ultimate POD if he can return fit and healthy. 

2. Matthew Lodge – Similar to Turbo, he was all the rage and was in many sides at the start of the season. He has a ridiculously low price because of his injury riddled season last year. I’d back him to play 45-50 minutes a week and average 50+. That’s going to see price rises of at least $125k. 

3. Sean O’Sullivan – Zig when everyone else is zagging? Maybe it’s a week too late or you think that Sam Walker is a future prodigy, but you can’t deny O’Sullivan’s numbers in SuperCoach have been ultra impressive.

 Scores of 70, 44 and 72 have seen him rise in price by $73k and if he maintains a 50 average he’ll definitely go up another $120k at least.  

4. Matt Burton – Burton is risky but he sneaks in for a few reasons. Firstly, he’s playing in a red-hot Panthers side and he is exclling at left centre. 

Secondly, even with Edwards coming back there is no guarantee he won’t keep his spot at left centre with Momo making way to accommodate Crichton’s shift back to the centres a possibility. 

Thirdly, he’s a sneaky good player to have if he can be there in Round 13 for the first bye. Cleary will be out with Origin and he will definitely get a start in the halves. 

5. Dane Gagai – Looks a foolproof option to be fair. Scoring well consistently and lines up every week on arguably the most potent attacking edge in the game. Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell inside and Alex Johnston outside. Recipe for huge SC scores.

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Super PODs (My top 5 ranked)

1. Tom Trbojevic – I know what you are thinking. Huge injury risk! 

Sure he’s had chronic hamstring problems and he’s a massive risk, but people have short memories, I certainly don’t. 

I can remember when pre-season all the talk was Turbo was a must-have at his price and with the rule changes. The fact is if he stays fit and is able to hit his straps getting the jump on everyone else this weekend might be the ultimate POD play. 

2. Adam Doueihi – Number one ranked last week and he drops down one position with only a small spike in ownership. He delivered with 94 points against the Cowboys and is becoming an increasingly pivotal part of the Tigers attack as Luke Brooks continues to struggle.  

3. Adam Elliott – Such an attacking weapon for the Dogs. Elliott is the ultimate Super POD and this may be just the week to get him with a match up against the frail edges of the Cowboys.  

4. Brian Kelly – Kelly looked good in his return from injury and with the Titans expansive play and running outside David Fifita he is sure to score well in SuperCoach for the rest of the season. 

5. Luke Thompson – Scored 83 with a try and gets the lock position this week with Josh Jackson out. Coach Trent Barrett credited Thompson with igniting the Bulldogs surprising potency in attack against the Storm. Certainly a Super POD option for SuperCoaches. 

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CLOSE WATCH

I’ll be adding a new segment listing the players to keep a close watch on over the next month for their SuperCoach prospects:

1. Jazz Tevaga – Scored 82 on the weekend with inflated minutes, but is capable of posting big scores if he gets the game time. Averaged 62 last year in 47 minutes of game time. 

2. Siosifa Talakai – Averaged 72.5 in the seven games he started last year. That’s phenomenal for a guy available at CTW. Wait until he secures the starting spot and then hit that trade button!

3. TPJ and Joe Ofahengaue – TPJ and Offa have been named to start on the edge. Could they both get 80 minutes? Certainly a close watch. 

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ROUND 6 MATCH-UPS 

The players I think matchup well SuperCoach wise are: 

Cleary, Luai, Kikau, To’o, Capewell, Staines, Burton v Broncos

Val Holmes v Bulldogs and Adam Elliott & Luke Thompson v Cows

Latrell, Cody Walker, Gagai, Johnston v Tigers

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CAPTAINS

The fact that the Panthers play Thursday night might scare a few people away from Nathan Cleary, but it really shouldn’t. He is the obvious choice for captain and Brian To’o and Jarome Luai present decent options also. 

Away from that maybe the true believers with Latrell Mitchell or Cody Walker will take a punt or possibly those enamoured with the powerhouse performance from Dave Fifita last week will throw the captaincy his way. Cleary or Luai for me. 

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TOPSPORT BETs of the WEEK

2021 – ROI (Return on Investment) = +9% 

• 2021 Results based on $10 per bet. $230 bet. $251.10 return. 

= $21.10 profit. 

ROUND 5 RECAP

Daine Laurie got the early try and things were looking up but the Tigers only got going late so the 2+ try bet for Laurie went out the window. 

Anytime Tryscorer Multi – E.Katoa/B.Kelly/D.Laurie@ $20.29 – Only Laurie was able to score in this multi. No good. 

Multi – Warriors +6.5/Raiders v Panthers Total -37.5/Cowboys v Tigers Over 7.5 tries Total game tries/Eels win @ $4.80 – Way off with this one with only 1 out 4 legs getting up. 

Value Multi – Raiders 1-12/Sharks +7.5/Parra -9.5 @ $14.82 – total strip out on this bet. 

So no good in Week 5 for the punting plays with all four bets biting the dust. 

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ROUND 6 BEST BETS (Odds courtesy of TopSport) 

Last Tryscorer – Nathan Cleary @ $16

Anytime Tryscorer – Adam Elliott @ 4.20

MULTI

B To’o, C Staines & N Cleary anytime try-scorers 

ODDS: @ $7.11

VALUE MULTI

• Manly win
• Tigers +18.5 line
• Canberra win first half
• Storm win first half 

ODDS: @ $11.50

Gamble responsibly.

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