Final Word: Rd 8, key trade + tactical advice

• STAT ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best, Round 8
• CAPTAIN’S CHALLENGE: Who to skipper in your side in Round 8

Fullback looked locked and loaded as the safest position of the season a month ago, with Teddy and Papi performing through the roof. 

Meanwhile, Latrell was making some ripples, Ponga was sitting idle on the bench, with Turbo recovering from serious injuries and Gutho was warming into the season. 

Reece Walsh was merely a development player for the Broncos. Fast forward one month and here we sit with a totally changed landscape. 

Going into the weekend it is very likely the top three fullbacks after the first month in Latrell, Teddy and Papi will all be sidelined due to injury and suspension leaving a huge predicament for SuperCoaches. 

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Burn the trades and bring in Ponga and/or Turbo and run the risk of having to burn more trades to get Teddy and Papi in later in the year or sit tight and accept the inevitable ranking drops that will come with having that type of quality in the highest scoring SC position on the sideline?  

Trade-wise this week I am seriously considering the Papi-Teddy trade out to Ponga-Turbo. 

Turbo’s ownership will be very high after this week and although he plays the Panthers it is a day game and that will be more conducive to attacking footy for both sides. 

Josh Curran is also a must-have and will most likely need to be brought in this week or next. 

If you wait a week to bring him in expect to pay an extra $60-90k. Jake Simpkin has a -38 breakeven and that makes him appealing as well as very solid scores of 56 and 45 in his first two games. 

On top of that he plays the bye. It all seems to stack up although I am running with Brailey and Watson at HOK and Schuster and Luai at 5/8 and I believe all four of them are much better propositions so at this stage I can’t justify a trade out. Decisions to be made!

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PODs & Super PODS 

After seven rounds here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and Super PODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar.

I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on: 

PODs (My top 5 ranked) 

1. Josh Curran – Won’t be a POD after this round and there’s a solid reason why he’s number 1 in the rankings this week. He looks like SuperCoach gold. A cheapie that could mature into a keeper. Jump on and enjoy the ride. 

2. Val Holmes – Actually played his best game since returning from the NFL on the weekend gone in my opinion. He has scores the last two weeks of 95 and 97 and orchestrates a lot of the Cowboys attack. He Gets a day game vs the Warriors and all things point to SuperCoach points. 

3. Kalyn Ponga – It’s probably easy to baulk at his price and many will bring in Turbo over Ponga this week, however he does have the propensity to go large and I was very impressed with his first 40 minutes last week. He faded out of the game a little in the second half which is probably his weakness, however I truly believe that he is revelling with no Pearce in the team. 58 against the miserly Panthers was more than acceptable. 

4. Tevita Pangai – Proceed with caution! TPJ seems to have got the silly penalties and errors out of his game and has found a home on the edge. He’s not going to score tries every week but he can certainly find SuperCoach points through tacklebreaks and offloads and is a genuine keeper option for FRF. Currently averages 70.9.

5. Luke Thompson – Barrett is looking to Thompson to play 60+ minutes on a weekly basis. He’s not quite there yet fitness wise, but I think he will improve every week and with SuperCoach scores of 83, 65 and 65 he is well and truly a POD on the radar. 

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Super PODs (My top 5 ranked)

1. Jesse Ramien – The Sharks are a side that are not overly SC relevant, but Ramien has quietly been going about his business and posting some impressive scores this year. 40, 64, 88 and 70 for an average of 65.5 is not something to be sneezed at. Ramien has averaged 7 tackle breaks and 2 offloads a game this year. 

2. Reece Walsh – I know fullback is stacked but this lad truly excelled in his debut game in Melbourne. Does it get any harder than that as an 18-year-old? He’s a huge risk, but Walsh could be one of the most popular cheapies next week if he comes out and explodes against the Cowboys.    

3. Corey Harawira-Naera – Got 80 minutes on the edge on the weekend and looks set to secure that spot pushing Hudson Young to the bench. He scored a solid 45 and that is about his floor. At just over $300k he is priced to score an average of 36 SC points a game so is significant value in my books. 

4. Felise Kaufusi – Has sneakily averaged 68 SC points per game this year which puts him in the top 10 2RF’s.  

5. Nicho Hynes – An interesting Super POD trade in if you are happy to ride his scores while Papi is out and then sit him on the bench until Round 13. It could backfire if Papenhuyzen misses out on Origin duties. 

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CLOSE WATCH

New segment listing the players to keep a close watch on over the next month for their SuperCoach prospects:

1. Shaun Johnson – Continue to keep an eye on SJ and wait for him to show something and for his price to come down. Definite trade-in for the run home. 

2. Rocco Berry – Doesn’t come much tougher than a debut game in Melbourne vs the Storm. Berry was sound but I certainly think we’ll get a good look at him against the Cowboys pourous defence this weekend in a dry day game hopefully. 

3. Sam Verills – One of the reasons I am toying with the idea of keeping Tedesco is Sam Verills. I can see Verills really providing that spark for the Roosters out of dummy-half and that will bring Teddy’s SC scoring alive again. Verills is a run home proposition in the stacked HOK position once he is playing 80 minutes.  

ROUND 8 MATCH UPS 

The players I think matchup well SuperCoach wise are: 

I like the day games this week. Given they all get good weather I think the Panthers v Sea Eagles, Warriors v Cowboys and Tigers v Saints can all be high SuperCoach point scoring games. Players I like in these match ups include Luai, Cleary, Staines, Burton, To’o, Korisau, Reece Walsh, Curran, Holmes, Doueihi, Nofoaluma, Laurie, Ben Hunt, Ravalawa and Lomax.  

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CAPTAIN

Nothing hurts more than missing out on a big score from your SuperCoach captain. I learnt that the hard way captaining Tedesco last week and subsequently dropping from my rank inside the top 1000 to around the 3000 mark. 

This week David Fifita is hard to go past with a revenge game against his old team the Broncos. 

Cleary, Holmes, Munster and Nicho Hynes are also some alternative options to be considered if you have them in your team. 

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TOPSPORT BETs of the WEEK

2021 – ROI (Return on Investment) = +33% 

• • 2021 Results based on $10 per bet. $310 bet. $411.10 return. 

$101.10 profit. 

Round 7 Punting Recap 

A total strip out in Round 7 with no bets getting up.  

Multi of B To’o, S Crichton & N Cleary anytime tryscorers @ $13.12 saw Crichton and To’o crash over for tries, but Cleary never really looked likely to cross the line. 

Cody Walker 2+ Tries @ $8.50 – Cody got the first try early in the first half and gave punters a sight but unfortunately no double. 

Anytime Tryscorer – Reed Mahoney @ 4 – another loser. 

Cronulla Sharks 39.5+ points @ $4.10 – did not even get close. 

Round 8 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of TopSport) 

Multi 1 – C Walker, N Hynes & B Kelly anytime tryscorers @ $11.57

Multi 2 – Knights win // Warriors v Cowboys over 44.5 points // Tigers win @ $18.46

Anytime Tryscorer – Reece Walsh @ $3.60

Anytime Tryscorer – Mitchell Barnett @ $4.80

3+ Tries – Ken Maumalo @ $15

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