Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 10?

SQUAD BREAKDOWN: SuperCoach team insights, Round 10
STAT ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best

Just when you think we’re building our squads nicely, SuperCoach throws us a bunch of spanners. Of course!

This makes start/sit all the more complex this week. I’ve ranked my plays for reserves and CTW below.

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’[i], nrlsupercoachstats.com[ii] and Quantium[iii] for their amazing stats, which I’ve referenced for this analysis.

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The 3 Wise Draftsmen provide weekly position scoring stats across the season, as well as for the last three rounds and five rounds. The nrlsupercoachstats.com website provides comprehensive stats in almost any SuperCoach category you can imagine.

The Quantium stat analysis looks at player ownership, specific to segments of SuperCoach rankings. All of these are weekly must-reads in my opinion.

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round. I’ve then taken a look at each player’s floor, based on the following statistics from nrlsupercoachstats.com:

Description	Statistics
“Lower Floor”	Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”	Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives
“Upper Floor”	Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives

Reserves

I’ve got Schuster at the top of this list, based on a favourable matchup against the Broncos.

He’s followed by Welch and Curran, due to their high floors. Curran’s base was a little down last week. However, I believe that was because of the number of tries scored during Sea Eagles vs Warriors match, resulting in less time in play.

If you have Peachey, I think he’s a solid play in 17’s this week as either a reserve or CTW. I’m speculating that he’ll have a strong match vs his former club (he’s averaged 63 against them in two gamesⁱⁱ). Paulo, Taukeiaho, Lodge and Fa’asuamaleaui follow him in my rankings as solid plays. So far, Taukeiaho has still been getting decent minutes off the bench.

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Next, I have Liddle, who should see decent minutes if the Tigers team make-up stays the same. I then have Watson, whose minutes are a concern, but the matchup looks favourable. This is the main reason I have him above Riki and Gamble.

Much of this week’s start/sit dilemmas will revolve around Sam Walker, who is carrying injury niggles, but has a favourable matchup vs the Cowboys. Generally, if you can cover him with a player from a later matchup (Eels, Warriors, Storm, Dragons, Titans or Panthers), then I would do that. Otherwise, I would avoid him as a play this week due to the risk of a late out.

Rankings:

Rank	Player
1	Schuster
2	Welch
3	Curran
4	Peachey
5	Paulo
6	Taukeiaho
7	Lodge*
8	Fa’asuamaleaui
9	Liddle
10	Watson
11	Riki**
12	Gamble
13	S Walker

Player Floors & Averages:

Player	Lower Floor	Mid Floor	Upper Floor	Season Ave
Schuster	38	46	47	64
Welch	46	60	60	65
Curran	44	49	49	64
Peachey	35	41	44	64
Paulo	41	51	51	60
Taukeiaho	46	50	55	61
Lodge*	40	52	52	51
Fa’asuamaleaui	45	50	50	53
Liddle	38	41	41	56
Watson	41	47	48	61
Riki**	42	47	48	49
Gamble	31	33	36	58
S Walker	14	20	27	86

*Excludes injured game

**Starting games

Player Matchups:

Player	Vs	Position	Rds 1 – 8 opp. Points allowed	Rd 9 opp. Points allowed
Schuster	Broncos	Left 2RF	68	69
Welch	Dragons	Prop***	48	54
Curran	Eels	Left 2RF	50	39
Peachey	Panthers	Lock	54	59
Paulo	Warriors	Prop***	62	41
Taukeiaho	Cowboys	Prop***	57	73
Lodge*	Sea Eagles	Prop***	55	40
Fa’asuamaleaui	Panthers	Prop***	48	49
Liddle	Knights	Hooker	47	76
Watson	Tigers	Lock	74	48
Riki**	Sea Eagles	Left 2RF	50	57
Gamble	Sea Eagles	Right Half	50	95
S Walker	Cowboys	Right Half	88	55

***Props = ave. of two starting

CTW

If you own Nofoaluma, you’re probably playing him every week given his solid floor. His matchup also looks decent this week.

Nicho Hynes also looks an excellent play, provided he starts. You may want to have cover ready just in case he drops out for Ryan Papenhuyzen though.

Sivo has a nice matchup this week, as do Isaako and Ferguson. Consequently, I have them above Peachey. Laurie follows due to a slightly lower floor.

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Simonsson looked much better on the left-wing last week. Provided he stays there, I have him above Brian Kelly for this round, due to a tough matchup for the Titans vs Panthers.

Staines has been very unpredictable, but could provide valuable cover for any late outs, due to playing in the last game of the round.

Saab’s matchup isn’t the worst, but his floor is such that I’d still be inclined to avoid playing him. Max Feagai has shown a decent floor in his two matchups, but I’d also avoid playing him against the Storm.

Rankings:

Rank	Player
1	Nofoaluma
2	Hynes*
3	Sivo
4	Isaako
5	Ferguson
6	Peachey
7	Laurie
8	Simonsson**
9	Kelly
10	Staines
11	Saab
12	Max Feagai

Player Floors & Averages:

Player	Lower Floor	Mid Floor	Upper Floor	Season Ave
Nofoaluma	27	43	44	63
Hynes*	23	33	33	79
Sivo	21	32	32	62
Isaako	20	31	40	69
Ferguson	29	40	41	64
Peachey	35	41	44	64
Laurie	25	36	37	59
Simonsson**	25	31	31	38
Kelly	26	35	35	53
Staines	16	21	22	42
Saab	14	17	17	38
Max Feagai	26	34	34	41

*Starting games

**Injured game excluded

Player Matchups:

Player	Vs	Position	Rds 1 – 8 opp. Points allowed	Rd 9 opp. Points allowed
Nofoaluma	Knights	R Wing	54	65
Hynes*	Dragons	FLB	72	39
Sivo	Warriors	L Wing	74	65
Isaako	Sea Eagles	FLB	66	50
Ferguson	Warriors	R Wing	55	94
Peachey	Panthers	Lock	54	59
Laurie	Knights	FLB	58	49
Simonsson**	Bulldogs	L Wing	51	89
Kelly	Panthers	L Centre	39	19
Staines	Titans	R Wing	43	113
Saab	Broncos	R Wing	47	66
Max Feagai	Storm	R Wing	37	20