Final Word: Rd 12, key trade + tactical advice

• SPY TALK ROUND 12: Answering the week’s big questions
• QUANTIUM STAT ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best

The Supercoach scoring this year is out of this world. Three single weekend scoring records in a row! Where does it stop? Then we come into a round with the high-flying first placed Panthers taking on the last placed Bulldogs. 

I was able to punch out a 1,442 which saw me drop into 4,401^st place. 

Again it has me pondering the decision of whether I cut my losses on the hunt for overall glory and focus my attention on the Topsport Charity head-to-head comp I’m in and my regular local cash comp. 

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After Sunday’s games I was winning both games and things were looking good, however fairly significant upgrades to Cleary saw me lose one and draw the other which ended the weekend on a sour note. 

When it comes to the trading block this week I could genuinely save both trades if things go to plan. 

I currently have 13 players for the bye and possibly 14 if the NSW blues decide not to pick Luai, so my numbers are quite good in that respect. TPJ, Brian To’o and Liam Martin are included in that 13 players and I guess they are outside chances of an origin call-up, but hopefully two of the three play round 13. 

My interest in trading this week is in Kodi Nikorima for Sam Walker if I decide to trade him. I’m in two minds though whether he is a hold or a sell. 

If the Roosters were to rest him this week that may tip me over the edge to a sell. I also need to bring in Isaiah Papali’i and will most likely do that next week. 

Marty Taupau is another beneficiary of the Sea Eagles revival that has quietly been putting up excellent Supercoach numbers and I think I want him for the run home. Decisions to be made and keeping in mind I’m down to only 18 trades left. 

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PODs & Super PODS 

After 11 rounds here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and Super PODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar. I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on: 

PODs (My top 5 ranked) 

1. Kodi Nikorima – For followers of my articles it might seem I always end up coming back to Kodi, but the fact is he is having a career year in both NRL and Supercoach and the better the Warriors get the more relevant I see him becoming. The Warriors point scoring potential is really up there and their draw looks favourable.   

2. Liam Martin – Obviously a very outside chance of playing Origin for NSW. However most likely he doesn’t meaning he plays this weekend and next and round 13 all as starting right back-rower. Not a bad place to be and worth taking a flyer on for those looking for Round 13 gold.  

3. Marty Taupau – The Manly Sea Eagles revival has been nothing short of stunning and we get caught up as we should in the deeds of Turbo, however Taupau has quietly put together five weeks of footy that has him back in the Supercoach equation. A 3RA of 76.7 and a 5RA of 72.2 all the while playing around 50 mins means Kapow is back to his best and pumping out quality.   

4. Reece Walsh – It’s gonna take some kahunas to pull off this trade, but maybe there is a strong argument to be made for it. Teddy and Turbo have both had injury concerns. Both will play Origin and it’s highly unlikely either backs up after Origin games meaning they lose an extra game or two. Walsh is shaping as maybe the greatest recruiting coup since the Cowboys signed Thurston from the Bulldogs all those years ago. The kid can flat out play.  

5. Matt Burton – On the edge of that backline, in that team and with that upcoming draw Burton is borderline irresistible. Consider him carefully but he could just be the answer for your 5/8-HFB problems.  

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Super PODs (My top 5 ranked)

1. Shaun Johnson – Sure he has a 109 BE hanging over his head, but now he gets the reigns to what is essentially a pretty decent football team. Probably one of the best run home draws in the comp and with a new contract to play for, SJ of old might just make an appearance.  

2. Kalyn Ponga – Similar to SJ, KP is a mercurial talent that you just can’t dismiss. Can easily bang out a 150 and the Knights need him to take the next step to superstardom more than ever. 

3. Sean Keppie – First of all I rate Keppie that highly I think he will play State of Origin one day. The last three games Hasler has aired him out with some serious minutes. Subsequently he has a 3RA of 61 and is ridiculously lowly priced at $358k. If he can continue the minutes and scoring he is well underpriced.  

4. Jackson Ford – McGuire is out for a while and Ford’s 60 from 59 minutes on the weekend is pretty impressive on paper. I can’t say I saw that game, but he’s certainly been a player of interest for a number of years now and with opportunity could possibly secure his spot. 

5. Heilum Luki – This kid’s debut has sort of just flown under the radar a bit. I looked at his Intrust Super Cup stats before the game and nothing stood out to me too much, but I was certainly impressed by what I saw on the weekend. A big athletic forward that looks to have a big future with the Cowboys. It could pay to follow and jump on early.  

CLOSE WATCH

New segment listing the players to keep a close watch on over the next month for their Supercoach prospects:

1. Ryan Matterson – With Crichton suspended and Brad Arthur in-game resting his forwards then Matterson becomes a watch if you don’t already have him. Likely to get the Origin call up one would think.   

ROUND 12 MATCH-UPS 

There’s a fair few decent match ups in terms of Supercoach scoring this weekend. The Storm match-up against the Broncos at a dry Suncorp Stadium on Thursday night looks a promising one for the popular Nicho Hynes and the POD HFB Jahrome Hughes. 

The other obvious match up is the Penrith Panthers v Bulldogs and every active Panthers player you have in your squad is probably a play except for maybe a Spencer Leniu. 

I think the Warriors and Cowboys looks set to be an open free-flowing high-scoring game and that could serve Reece Walsh, Kodi Nikorima and Valentine Holmes well. 

Sam Walker and James Tedesco would like their chances against a Raiders defence that has been anaemic the last few weeks. 

I also like SJ v Titans and Turbo, Schuster, Garrick and Taupau v Newcastle Knights. 

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CAPTAIN

Risk going against Cleary at your own peril. I can’t see myself taking that extreme an anti-POD move.

Sometimes you’ve just got to stick with the mob and hope that he goes huge again and maybe a few that don’t have him drop out of the race for overall. 

If you are leaning towards the risky play, James Tedesco, Nicho Hynes and Tommy Turbo shape as the most likely candidates. 

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TOPSPORT BETs of the WEEK

2021 – ROI (Return on Investment) = -1% 

• 2021 Results based on $10 per bet. $460 bet. $456.10 return. 

$3.90 loss. 

Round 11 Punting Recap 

RTS and Kikau got tries but that made only 2/4 legs with G Jennings and Teddy failing to score. With the multi the Storm did the job on the Raiders however very few people saw the Broncos upset of the Roosters coming and I was one of the many who missed it. 0/2 and that means for the first time this year we are in the red. 

Round 12 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of TopSport) 

Same Game Multi –  Anytime Try-scorers – B Smith/J Hughes/G Jennings/ N Hynes @ $24.07

To score a try Multi – B Smith/K Nikorima/ J Tedesco/B Nikora/J Schuster @ $260.55

Multi –  Storm v Broncos Over 50.5/NZ win/Roosters win/Manly win/Sharks +2.5 @ $10.39