Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 12?

SPY TALK ROUND 12: Answering the week’s big questions
QUANTIUM STAT ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best

I’m back again for a look at start/sit this week.

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’[i], nrlsupercoachstats.com[ii] and Quantium[iii] for their amazing stats, which I’ve referenced for this analysis.

The 3 Wise Draftmen provide weekly position scoring stats across the season, as well as for the last three rounds and five rounds. The nrlsupercoachstats.com website provides comprehensive stats in almost any SuperCoach category you can imagine.

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The Quantium stat analysis looks at player ownership, specific to segments of SuperCoach rankings. All of these are weekly must-reads in my opinion.

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round.

I’ve then taken a look at each player’s floor, based on the following statistics from nrlsupercoachstats.com:

Description	Statistics
“Lower Floor”	Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”	Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives
“Upper Floor”	Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives

I’ve also added an ‘estimated points’ section. I’ve calculated this as follows:

(Player’s Season Average + Average points conceded to position by opposition) divided by 2.

Reserves

I’ve got Fisher-Harris on top of this list, based on his high floor. Next, I have Schuster, due to a favourable matchup against the Knights. His base + power stats (39) were also pretty solid last week, despite the move to 5/8. For this reason, I have him just ahead of Burton, who has an excellent matchup vs the Bulldogs.

I think Pangai can still put up a decent score against the Storm. He’s pressing for an Origin berth, which will provide extra motivation.

Connor Watson has been a frustrating own in recent times due to reduced minutes. He’s still been getting the job done though, with a three round average of 54. I prefer him compared to a few others due to his attacking upside.

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Next I have Fa’asuamaleaui, who I don’t mind as a play starting at lock. Then Junior Paulo, who’s form has slightly improved recently.

Despite what looks like an okay matchup against the Raiders, I have Sam Walker a fair way down the list. This is due to a dip in form, coinciding with talk of him being rested. He’s shown the ability to put stacks of SuperCoach points on in a short space of time though, so he could turn it around at any time.

I dislike Taukeiaho as a play without the goal-kicking, unless we see more evidence of increased minutes. Liddle then rounds out the list.

Rankings:

Rank	Player	Estimated points
1	Fisher-Harris	65
2	Schuster	55
3	Burton	62
4	Pangai	59
5	Watson	59
6	Fa’asuamaleaui	58
7	Paulo	57
8	S Walker*	63
9	Taukeiaho**	53
10	Liddle	48

Player Floors:

Player	Lower Floor	Mid Floor	Upper Floor
Fisher-Harris	49	58	58
Schuster	35	44	45
Burton	23	30	30
Pangai	40	58	58
Watson	41	47	48
Fa’asuamaleaui	46	52	52
Paulo	42	54	54
S Walker*	12	17	30
Taukeiaho**	43	47	47
Liddle	36	36	36

*Upper floor adjusted to only reflect goalkicking games

**Excludes goalkicking points

Player Averages:

Player	Season Ave	3 Rd Avg	5 Rd Avg
Fisher-Harris	67	78	69
Schuster	64	59	61
Burton	63	66	58
Pangai	69	66	74
Watson	60	54	55
Fa’asuamaleaui	57	63	51
Paulo	59	62	51
S Walker*	73	36	79
Taukeiaho**	51	42	42
Liddle	53	37	49

Player Matchups:

Player	Vs	Position	Rds 1-10 points conceded	Rd 11 points conceded
Fisher-Harris	Bulldogs	FR	61	85
Schuster	Knights	L/H	42	80
Burton	Bulldogs	L/C	59	91
Pangai	Storm	L/2R	47	59
Watson	Sea Eagles	LK	58	54
Fa’asuamaleaui	Sharks	FR	58	58
Paulo	Rabbitohs	FR	55	44
S Walker*	Raiders	R/H	55	32
Taukeiaho**	Raiders	FR	54	60
Liddle	Dragons	HK	41	53

CTW

It’s pretty clear at this point that Hynes belongs in the captain’s article rather than this one. However, I’ve included him for interest’s sake. He’s followed by Laurie, due to a favourable matchup for fullbacks vs the Dragons.

I’ve got Reimis Smith high in the rankings due to the matchup vs the Broncos. He’s followed by Nofoaluma who is always a solid play, although the matchup vs the Dragons left-side may not be as favourable as it seems.

It will be interesting to see if David Fifita’s return affects Kelly’s form. I have him in 5^th on this list.

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Staines is next, despite his low floor. He’s also shown a high ceiling in the past, so could well be worth a punt vs the Bulldogs.

I like Sivo as the better play of the two Eels wingers. I have him above Best, who is returning from a hamstring injury.

Blake Ferguson has struggled with Dylan Brown out of the Eels’ side. As such I have Saab ahead of him due to his favourable matchup vs the Knights and form turnaround with Turbo in the side.

Isaako’s stats suggest he should be higher on this list, but I’m sceptical due to the matchup vs the Storm. Simonsson rounds out this list.

Rankings:

Rank	Player	Estimated points
1	Hynes*	98
2	Laurie	69
3	R Smith	54
4	Nofoaluma	51
5	Kelly	50
6	Staines	49
7	Sivo	56
8	Best	56
9	Saab	51
10	Ferguson	43
11	Isaako	60
12	Simonsson	35

Player Floors:

Player	Lower Floor	Mid Floor	Upper Floor
Hynes*	26	42	51
Laurie	25	42	43
R Smith	26	33	34
Nofoaluma	26	42	43
Kelly	27	40	40
Staines	15	20	21
Sivo	21	21	22
Best	35	41	41
Saab	15	19	20
Ferguson	28	38	39
Isaako	19	30	40
Simonsson	21	27	27

*Starting games, with an estimate added for goalkicking

Player Averages:

Player	Season Ave	3 Rd Avg	5 Rd Avg
Hynes*	106	139	117
Laurie	57	44	57
R Smith	61	52	77
Nofoaluma	62	78	64
Kelly	57	69	61
Staines	42	66	49
Sivo	43	43	77
Best	55	42	46
Saab	43	75	63
Ferguson	57	37	44
Isaako	68	61	73
Simonsson	34	47	36

Player Matchups:

Player	Vs	Position	Rds 1-10 points conceded	Rd 11 points conceded
Hynes*	Broncos	FB	89	97
Laurie	Dragons	FB	80	100
R Smith	Broncos	R/C	48	43
Nofoaluma	Dragons	R/W	37	59
Kelly	Sharks	L/C	44	39
Staines	Bulldogs	R/W	60	19
Sivo	Rabbitohs	L/W	65	101
Best	Sea Eagles	L/C	56	58
Saab	Knights	R/W	55	101
Ferguson	Rabbitohs	R/W	31	12
Isaako	Storm	FB	55	14
Simonsson	Roosters	L/W	31	89