Final Word: Rd 13, key trade + tactical advice

• BYE GUIDE: Players to target in make-or-break rounds
• QUANTIUM STAT ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best

This next five to six weeks is where the real contenders get sorted out! 

No I’m not talking about the NRL contenders, but the NRL Supercoach contenders. 

Managing your list and trades throughout the Origin period is equal parts luck and skill. 

I mean without some smart decision making and forward thinking you are no chance of making it through and remaining in contention for the $50k 1^st prize. 

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However you will also need some luck with player injuries and Origin selections and player availability. 

There are a lot of permeatations to take into consideration, not only Origin selections but who comes in for those players at club level and what role do they play and also which Origin players are likely to back up after playing Origin. 

My advice would be to get a piece of paper and plan out your strategy. If you are in 5000^th place or further back maybe the bye rounds are your chance to attack and make your charge up the leaderboard. 

If you are in the top few thousand you might take the ploy of just trying to manage your way through the Origin period and hopefully maintain your position and some trades for the run home. 

Personally I’m in 3,890^th place and whilst I need to make up some ground I haven’t really saved any trades and I’m sort of at the stage where every trade from here on in is either to bring in a keeper or it must have very high strategic value to my team. 

Rather than looking at the usual POD’s and Super POD’s this week I’ve decided to break it down into players you want for the run home (keepers), those players that shape up well for the Round 13 bye and Round 17 bye rounds. 

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Keepers (for the run home) 

These are the players I think are must-haves for the run home. 

HOK – H. Grant

FRF – I Papali’i, TPJ, L. Thompson

2RF – D Fifita, T Harris, A Crichton

HFB – Cleary, SJ

5/8 – C Walker

CTW – B To’o, V Holmes, J Ramien, D Gagai, J Suaali 

FLB – T Trbojevic, R Papenhhuyzen

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Rd 13 Bye Buys

Hopefully you’ve already got some of these players and have the trades in hand to grab a couple more. 

HOK – R Mahoney, B Smith, C Watson 

FRF – I Papali’i, TPJ, JFH

2RF – R Matterson, M Barnett

HFB – J Hughes

5/8 – M Burton, D Brown, A Doueihi

CTW – D Laurie, D Nofoaluma, B Best 

FLB – C Gutherson, N Hynes 

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Rd 17 Bye Buys

HOK – Nil

FRF – L. Thompson, AFB

2RF – T Harris, S Toupounua, CHN, J Curran

HFB – SJ, Sam Walker

5/8 – K Nikorima, J Schuster, C Walker, M Moylan

CTW – R Garrick, A Johnstone, J Suaali, E Aitken, M Montoya   

FLB – R Walsh 

CLOSE WATCH

New segment listing the players to keep a close watch on over the next month for their Supercoach prospects:

1. Ben Hunt – St. George Dragons have a soft run coming up and with Hunt currently out of Origin contention he might be a player to follow.    

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ROUND 13 MATCH-UPS 

With only four games it’s hard to go past the Storm v Titans match up. 

The Storm have been toying with teams lately and Nicho Hynes with the goal-kicking and in the fullback position would be short odds to be the highest Supercoach pointscorer of the round. 

The Knights showed a bit of grit last week in a dour win against Manly and maybe they’ve turned the corner. 

If it was just a false dawn and Parramatta can bounce back from a dismal loss then Clint Gutherson matches up well. 

TPJ will be firing to show NSW they made the wrong decision in not putting him in the 17 for Origin 1. Expect a big game from him and Matt Lodge. 

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CAPTAIN

Obviously most players will well and truly have the loophole option in play with 17 or less players in their teams. 

Which means basically any player you like as your captain in the first 3 games you can VC and have a player in the Knights v Eels as a backup. 

Captains during bye rounds can make all the difference. I imagine Nicho Hynes and Clint Gutherson will be the most popular players to VC and C if you have them. 

Consider also Jahrome Hughes as a low-ownership player who could go very big against a porous Titans defence. 

I think Isaiah Papali’i is also due a bit of a bounce back game after a drop in form the last two weeks. Possibly a Matt Burton or a TPJ are the only two other players I’d consider.  

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TOPSPORT BETs of the WEEK

2021 – ROI (Return on Investment) = -7% 

• • 2021 Results based on $10 per bet. $490 bet. $456.10 return. 

$33.90 loss. 

Round 12 Punting Recap 

Got a few try-scorers up but no cashes and three legs of the multi only for Manly to shit the bed against the Knights on Sunday. 

Round 13 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of TopSport) 

Same Game multi –  Anytime try-scorers – H Dunster/C Gutherson/I Papali’i @ $10.27

To score a try multi – S Cobbo/N Hynes/V Kikau @ $10.84

Multi – Broncos win/Storm -22.5 @ $5.60