Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 14?

• FINAL WORD: Rd 14, key trade and tactical advice
• STAT ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best

I’m back again for a look at start/sit this week.

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’[i], nrlsupercoachstats.com[ii] and Quantium[iii] for their amazing stats, which I’ve referenced for this analysis.

The 3 Wise Draftmen provide weekly position scoring stats across the season, as well as for the last 3 rounds and 5 rounds. The nrlsupercoachstats.com website provides comprehensive stats in almost any SuperCoach category you can imagine. The Quantium stat analysis looks at player ownership, specific to segments of SuperCoach rankings. All of these are weekly must-reads in my opinion.

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k ranked SuperCoach teams, based on Quantium’s analysis.

I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round. I’ve then taken a look at each player’s floor, based on the following statistics from nrlsupercoachstats.com:

Description	Statistics
“Lower Floor”	Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”	Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives
“Upper Floor”	Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives

Reserves

Of those that are ‘borderline’ plays for strong 17s, I have Adam Doueihi and Sam Walker atop the list. Doueihi has a tough matchup vs the Eels, but his floor is high enough to play anyway.

Most will have to play Sam Walker, now that Cleary is ruled out. However, if you do need to make a choice, I’d be looking to get him into your 17 in any case, coming off a rest, with a decent matchup vs the Titans. Not far behind him is Matt Burton, who’s been sensational this season and will take on an increased role at 5/8 for the game against the Sharks.

Watson has still been ticking along okay, despite reduced minutes. I’m happy to play him most weeks, given his attacking upside. His competitor for minutes, Mitch Barnett, has continued his SuperCoach decline since moving to lock. He may kick the odd goal, so isn’t the worst play, but I prefer others if you can swing it.

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Embed from Getty Images

I have a series of front-rowers rounding out the list. Of them, Taukeiaho is my preferred option, given his recent elevation back to the starting team. I have Paulo, then Fa’asuamaleaui following, given they’re backing up from Origin duty.

Paulo looks a better play to me of these two, as he played approx. half the mins of big Tino on Wednesday night.

Utoikamanu isn’t the worst play, if you’re short on numbers like me. He’s shown ability to jag attacking stats, especially when coming off the bench. Meanwhile, Leniu disappointed last week, despite starting for the Panthers.

Rankings:

Rank	Player
1	Doueihi
2	S Walker*
3	Burton
4	Watson
5	Barnett
6	Taukeiaho**
7	Paulo
8	Fa’asuamaleaui
9	Utoikamanu
10	Leniu

Player Floors:

Player	Lower Floor	Mid Floor	Upper Floor
Doueihi	32	32	44
S Walker*	12	17	28
Burton	23	31	31
Watson	43	48	49
Barnett	44	53	57
Taukeiaho**	43	43	43
Paulo	42	51	51
Fa’asuamaleaui	45	50	50
Utoikamanu	34	38	38
Leniu	28	31	31

*Upper floor adjusted to only reflect goalkicking games

**Excludes goalkicking points

Player Averages:

Player	Season Ave	3 Rd Avg	5 Rd Avg
Doueihi	74	58	86
S Walker*	73	36	79
Burton	64	85	66
Watson	62	61	61
Barnett	67	51	50
Taukeiaho**	56	43	48
Paulo	58	52	52
Fa’asuamaleaui	56	63	55
Utoikamanu	46	48	43
Leniu	34	31	30

Player Matchups:

Player	Vs	Position	Rds 1-11 or 12 points conceded	Rd 12 or 13 points conceded
Doueihi	Eels	R/CTR	43	57
S Walker*	Titans	R/HLF	47	24
Burton	Sharks	L/HLF?	46	34
Watson	Rabbitohs	LOCK	55	45
Barnett	Rabbitohs	LOCK	55	45
Taukeiaho**	Titans	FRF	51	33
Paulo	Tigers	FRF	58	45
Fa’asuamaleaui	Roosters	LOCK	51	47
Utoikamanu	Eels	FRF	57	34

CTW

Daine Laurie has the makings of a SuperCoach legend the season! Available at CTW to start the season at bottom dollar, then going on to become a potential keeper.

His matchup against the Eels isn’t as difficult as it looks, so I have him atop this list. The matchup is actually a little tougher than it looks for Sivo. However, his form is such that I still have him second on the list.

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If Suaalii can somehow find a starting spot in the Roosters backline this week, he’ll be a great play. It seems unlikely at this point though, with Teddy firming to backup.

Whilst not on this list, I think Greg Marzhew could be a viable alternative to Suaalii, for those looking for a CTW cheapie. You’ll need to take a risk on getting him a week early, with Don lurking in the reserves. However, Marzhew looks to have the power game of a SC gun, notching 82 points in his first game, including 61 in base + power (offloads and tackle breaks)!

Nofoaluma disappointed in the bye round, but still looks a solid enough play. I have a surprise candidate in Simonsson, following him on the list. Simonsson hasn’t impressed for SuperCoach purposes so far this season, but the matchup for fullbacks vs Broncos is such that I think he could well be worth a play this round.

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Best also disappointed in the bye round, but if you own like me, you may be forced to play him. Likewise for Brian Kelly.

The matchup isn’t as favourable as it appears for Reimis Smith, so he follows. Then Capewell if he backs up (expecting reduced minutes) and Peachey (named on the bench).

Staines will probably continue to be a SuperCoach lottery. While Saab has struggled without Turbo this season. Roberts has looked better on the wing, but I’d avoid playing him against the Eels, if at all possible.

Rankings:

Rank	Player
1	Laurie
2	Sivo
3	Suaali
4	Nofoaluma
5	Simonsson
6	Best
7	Kelly
8	R Smith
9	Capewell
10	Peachey
11	Staines
12	Saab
13	Roberts

Player Floors:

Player	Lower Floor	Mid Floor	Upper Floor
Laurie	25	35	36
Sivo	21	34	34
Suaali	27	34	34
Nofoaluma	26	42	42
Simonsson	20	26	26
Best	32	39	39
Kelly	25	35	35
R Smith	26	33	33
Capewell	37	44	44
Peachey	35	41	44
Staines	16	21	22
Saab	16	19	19
Roberts	17	22	22

Player Averages:

Player	Season Ave	3 Rd Avg	5 Rd Avg
Laurie	62	79	60
Sivo	67	81	64
Suaalii	54	–	–
Nofoaluma	60	53	65
Simonsson	34	30	40
Best	51	44	41
Kelly	54	58	58
R Smith	54	44	45
Capewell	60	59	62
Peachey	60	45	59
Staines	45	44	64
Saab	43	57	64
Roberts	32	40	30

Player Matchups:

Player	Vs	Position	Rds 1-11 or 12 points conceded	Rd 12 or 13 points conceded
Laurie	Eels	FLB	67	38
Sivo	Tigers	L/WING	56	41
Suaalii	Titans	R/CTR?	53	124
Nofoaluma	Eels	L/WING	64	31
Simonsson	Broncos	FLB	95	156
Best	Rabbitohs	L/CTR	52	18
Kelly	Roosters	L/CTR	42	27
R Smith	Warriors	R/CTR	39	71
Capewell	Sharks	R/2RF?	61	77
Peachey	Sharks	LOCK?	58	47
Staines	Sharks	R/WING	57	38
Saab	Cowboys	R/WING	49	82
Roberts	Eels	R/WING	43	29

Good luck with your selections!

End notes

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[i] https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen

[ii] https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com

[iii] http://13.210.220.211/2021/04/28/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-8-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/