Draft Breakdown: Finals fixture analysis + key strategies

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We are getting closer to the business end of the season where people are starting to get desperate for wins and those sitting at the top of the ladder get to watch the scramble smugly.

As we head into the final three games of the regular season, for most comps, it’s worth discussing the teams you should be targeting for waiver-wires and strategies you can use to help you win your comp.

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Strength of Schedule

Thanks to the great https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com/ we know the teams that have the best draws and most potential to score points in round 22-25. 

The table below lists the teams with the best draw descending to the teams with the worst draw, calculated by SC points each team has scored divided by the SC points their opponents are conceding.

1	Storm	9	Tigers
2	Manly	10	Titans
3	Penrith	11	Sharks
4	Roosters	12	Broncos
5	Warriors	13	Dragons
6	Knights	14	Raiders
7	Eels	15	Cowboys
8	Souths	16	Bulldogs

It’s no surprises that Melbourne, Manly and Penrith are close to the top of the table, with players in those teams having the best opportunity to score points in the Draft finals.

It should be noted that teams like the Eels and Souths who are scoring plenty of points have some tough opposition coming up for Draft finals and may not be that attractive from a SuperCoach perspective compared to other teams.

Obviously this table is a guide and shouldn’t stop you using what you know about each team, for example I still would want anyone that plays on the left side of Souths no matter who they play. 

It’s interesting to see that the Warriors are fifth on this list and they have a good run for finals. 

The Warriors leak plenty of points but also score plenty of points and it’s a team many players in your Draft comp won’t be targeting. 

Josh Curran is a great example of someone that could benefit from the Warriors run and recent Tohu Harris injury.

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TWO BITES OF THE CHERRY

This strategy is about using your bench player effectively and giving yourself a chance to use that players score if he goes well. 

All year we have been collecting potential players on the pine of our Draft sides. In finals that changes and you should be getting ready to drop your entire bench and one of your starters if your bench players goes well.

I like to choose a high upside player (usually a FLB, CTW or half) on my bench who I think might go well and who plays relatively early in the round. 

If he goes above 70 or even potentially lower depending on my opponent’s score and my players, I will ensure my bench is all playing not playing and have one player not playing in my starting side to get the bench score.

If he doesn’t go well, we obviously don’t drop players and start another player – thus getting another chance at getting a good score.

Keep in mind this effects your VC loophole and if you are planning on taking your VC you might want a safer forward option on your bench.

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WAIVER SNIPING

Another tactic in finals is analysing your opponent’s side and working out their weakest position and where they can upgrade on the waiver.

Depending where you are on the waiver wire order and how your own side is shaping up, you can target a player they could potentially use against you.

For example, if they just lost a hooker to injury or are weak in 5/8 and there is a clear waiver target or someone you think could score big, you may want to waiver them to stop them.. 

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There is a fine line when using this tactic as you can definitely take this too far and go into waiver blocking (continually picking up and dumping players) which is a dirty tactic in my eyes, but targeting a key player or two an opposition may use is fair play.

Good luck for those in finals and hopefully you can use these strategies to your advantage.