Spy Talk: Analysing every club’s run home

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Hey Gang!

It’s run home time and obviously you want to try where possible to own guys who are in teams that look like putting points on. 

There are outside backs that are decent players both in SuperCoach and in real NRL, but if you are running into Penrith, Melbourne etc rather then the Dogs or the Titans then I know which player I’d rather own!

With that being said, I have run my eye over the draw and given each team a rating based on who they play. 

Each opponent is rated with 10 being the best matchup to play against and 1 being the worst. 

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The higher the rating the better for Supercoach in general, though this is not position based and is really just a general look at tries conceded as well as my own gut feel. 

Please be aware that if you have the depth available you can sit guys during a tough week which might make a player more attractive if you can play them during the easier matchups. 

Essentially, if a team has a great draw but plays Penrith or Melbourne once then you can always factor that out and sit your player that week if you can cover him!

Also factor in to your personal analysis that the Queensland sides will have additional home games.

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Team Ratings – Based on Their Defence 

Bulldogs, Brisbane, Wests Tigers, Cowboys – All conceded over 500 points and I have rated – 9 

Titans – 8

Raiders, Warriors – 7

Sharks, Dragons, Knights – 6

Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs and Roosters – 4

Eels – 3

Storm and Penrith – 1

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Run Home – Best to Worst

Newcastle Knights – 53 

Absolute madness this run! It makes Ponga so tempting, but with injuries, HIAs and no kicking there is risk. Especially if Papenhuyzen returns in a big way and fires for Melbourne. Decision time!

• Round 19: Roosters 
• Round 20: Raiders 
• Round 21: Broncos 
• Round 22: Sharks 
• Round 23: Bulldogs 
• Round 24: Titans 
• Round 25: Broncos 

New Zealand Warriors – 53 

What a run home! Can Nikorima get his spot back permanently? Is Walsh a sneaky POD especially while kicking?

• Round 19: Rabbitohs 
• Round 20: Tigers 
• Round 21: Sharks 
• Round 22: Bulldogs 
• Round 23: Broncos 
• Round 24: Raiders 
• Round 25: Titans 

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – 46

A nice draw for the Dogs but unfortunately no relevant Supercoach players.

• Round 19: Sharks 
• Round 20: Titans 
• Round 21: Tigers 
• Round 22: Warriors 
• Round 23: Knights 
• Round 24: Sea Eagles 
• Round 25: Tigers 

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Wests Tigers – 45 

It’s a great run outside of Penrith in the second last round and possibly Manly this weekend. Doueihi, Nofoaluma, Luciano perhaps? Worth a look.

• Round 19: Sea Eagles 
• Round 20: Warriors 
• Round 21: Bulldogs 
• Round 22: Cowboys 
• Round 23: Sharks 
• Round 24: Panthers 
• Round 25: Bulldogs 

Cronulla Sharks – 45 

A brilliant run but a super tough last round unless Melbourne rest guys. Even then they are still a good side. Hopefully SJ can get back to form and fitness.

• Round 19: Bulldogs 
• Round 20: Sea Eagles 
• Round 21: Warriors 
• Round 22: Knights 
• Round 23: Tigers 
• Round 24: Broncos 
• Round 25: Storm 

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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles – 44 

Outside of Melbourne and Parra back-to-back it’s a magic run home! But indeed a tough two weeks. Outside of those, Turbo if healthy will continue to go bananas. Garrick also and Saab could get back amongst it! 

• Round 19: Tigers 
• Round 20: Storm 
• Round 21: Sharks 
• Round 22: Eels 
• Round 23: Raiders 
• Round 24: Bulldogs 
• Round 25: Cowboys 

Gold Coast Titans – 42 

Pretty damn good! Brian Kelly to come home strong again? 

• Round 19: Dragons 
• Round 20: Bulldogs 
• Round 21: Cowboys 
• Round 22: Rabbitohs 
• Round 23: Storm 
• Round 24: Knights 
• Round 25: Warriors 

North Queensland Cowboys – 42 

After this coming round they have three absolute dream matchups to put on points before a slightly tougher finish over the last three weekends. Shame Val is out!

• Round 19: Storm 
• Round 20: Broncos 
• Round 21: Titans 
• Round 22: Tigers 
• Round 23: Eels 
• Round 24: Dragons 
• Round 25: Sea Eagles 

Brisbane Broncos – 39 

A middling run home but not super difficult.

• Round 19: Panthers 
• Round 20: Cowboys 
• Round 21: Knights 
• Round 22: Roosters 
• Round 23: Warriors 
• Round 24: Sharks 
• Round 25: Knights 

Melbourne Storm – 38 

Their run is mixed, but it’s also Melbourne who tend to decimate nearly everyone! Outside of Penrith I’m not sure the run matters all that much but it may slightly cap the guns in their side.

• Round 19: Cowboys 
• Round 20: Panthers 
• Round 21: Sea Eagles 
• Round 22: Raiders 
• Round 23: Titans 
• Round 24: Eels 
• Round 25: Sharks 

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Penrith Panthers – 36 

A bit like Melbourne, they have attack in them in most games when everyone is healthy. Cleary’s absence will of course be critical though to their overall attack.

• Round 19: Broncos 
• Round 20: Storm 
• Round 21: Roosters 
• Round 22: Dragons 
• Round 23: Rabbitohs 
• Round 24: Tigers 
• Round 25: Eels 

South Sydney Rabbitohs – 36 

It’s a mixed run home here. Potentially a tough last two weeks with Penrith and then a Roosters side that is a bit hit and miss, but may well be in form by then. Although Cody put 200 on them the same time last year!

• Round 19: Warriors 
• Round 20: Dragons 
• Round 21: Eels 
• Round 22: Titans 
• Round 23: Panthers 
• Round 24: Roosters 
• Round 25: Dragons 

Sydney Roosters – 36 

Three easier games mixed with three tougher matchups.

• Round 19: Knights 
• Round 20: Eels 
• Round 21: Panthers 
• Round 22: Broncos 
• Round 23: Dragons 
• Round 24: Rabbitohs 
• Round 25: Raiders 

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St George Illawarra Dragons – 36

I’d be avoiding generally.

• Round 19: Titans 
• Round 20: Rabbitohs 
• Round 21: Raiders 
• Round 22: Panthers 
• Round 23: Roosters 
• Round 24: Cowboys 
• Round 25: Rabbitohs 

Canberra Raiders – 31 

Don’t panic Raiders fans, three of the games are very winnable but they are going to have to capitalise on them or cause an upset or two over a Manly/Eels/Roosters type. Supercoach wise it’s not great for backs, but forwards could still be strong enough (CHN).

• Round 19: Eels 
• Round 20: Knights 
• Round 21: Dragons 
• Round 22: Storm 
• Round 23: Sea Eagles 
• Round 24: Warriors 
• Round 25: Roosters 

Parramatta Eels – 28 

Basically their run is very tough after this weekend! It makes Gutho a tough hold and Mahoney a question mark (though at his value and with his workrate he should be super solid!)

• Round 19: Raiders 
• Round 20: Roosters 
• Round 21: Rabbitohs 
• Round 22: Sea Eagles 
• Round 23: Cowboys 
• Round 24: Storm 
• Round 25: Panthers 

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Head-to-Head Finals

Here’s a quick brief of the clubs with the best and worst draws for head-to-head finals which run from Round 23-26. For obvious reasons it’s very similar to the above, with a few little tweaks.

EASY

Knights, Warriors, Bulldogs, Tigers, Sharks, Sea Eagles, Roosters

MEDIUM

Titans, Cowboys, Broncos, Storm, Panthers, Rabbitohs,

HARD

Dragons, Raiders, Eels

Nothing too different here, the Roosters are the biggest movers from the draw above with nice finals games against the Broncos, Dragons, Rabbitohs and Raiders.

Despite a nice overall draw, the Titans face the Rabbitohs and Storm in the opening two weeks of finals, before potentially tricky games against the Knights and Warriors.

While a relatively tough overall draw, the Storm’s fixtures open up for finals with games against the Raiders, Titans, Eels and Sharks. Although players may be given rests at some stage.

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Sum Up 

One thing I note from the above is that the better teams tend to have tougher runs home (better games!) and the teams who have been struggling have good runs home so we could have a nice mix of top of the table clashes alternating with teams fighting for the top 8 playing each other. 

Use the above as a guide and you can update any team weekly by taking out the match they have already played!

As of Round 19, the Eels and Canberra have by far the worst draw in terms of scoring potential, the Knights and Warriors have by far the best, while the Tigers, Sharks and Manly all have generally decent runs home! 

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Spy’s Plans

I am lucky enough to have all the players I want (outside of my final fullback or Cleary), with four trades remaining. I’ll have a close eye this week on Melbourne and whether Papenhuyzen gets much time and how he looks.

There’ll also be a close Ponga and Walsh watch on the cards. Otherwise I’ll be hoping my PODs can go well – looking at Sammy Walker, Doueihi, Nofoaluma, Grant (hopefully next week) and Lolo!

Turbo will be skipper 198% and I’ll play SJ against the Dogs hoping for a bounce back game.

Good luck troops!!