Strategy Playbook: Predicting top 44 run home scorers

SPY TALK: Head-to-head finals tactics to give you an edge
STAT ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best, Round 23

Position vs Team analysis – the Run Home

The injury crisis put an abrupt end to most of our start/sit decisions. So, I’ve broadened this analysis to look at the best players for the run home, based on position vs team analysis.

If you’ve still got trades left, well done! This table will help you identify the key targets. If you’re looking to make up ground in your groups or the overall race, be sure to also check out Quantium’s[i] stat analysis, which will help you identify the best ‘point-of-difference’ players.

Also be sure to keep an eye on ‘3 Wise Draftmen’[ii] on Twitter, who look at point scoring vs position for each side of the field / player position. It’s a fantastic resource!

A massive thanks again also to nrlsupercoachstats.com[iii], whose incredible stats I’ve utilised for the below analysis.

FINALS PRICE DROP!!! Sign up to SC Playbook for just $10 for extra premium articles every round, including access to our subscriber special question and answer podcast.

Embed from Getty Images

I’ll let the stats speak for themselves. I’ve calculated my estimates based on the formula below.

ESTIMATED POINTS CALCULATION = (Player Points Per Minute (PPM) x Player’s Est. Minutes) + (Opponent PPM x Player’s Est. Minutes)

I’ve exercised a bit of discretion to determine estimated minutes, by taking into consideration player’s average minutes this season, as well as the potential for ‘early showers’ in the last few rounds.

Note that the estimated points are relatively conservative for the highest ranked players, who generally have much higher scoring potential than the rest of the competition.

Hope you all enjoy the last few rounds of the regular season!

*If viewing on mobile, scroll across for full table.

Ranking	Name	Team	Posn	Est. Mins	AvgScore	PPM	Total Est Pts
1	Trbojevic, Tom	MNL	FLB	75	135	1.77	296
2	Cleary, Nathan	PTH	HFB	75	112	1.43	241
3	Ponga, Kalyn	NEW	FLB	80	72	0.97	238
4	Papenhuyzen, Ryan	MEL	FLB	70	73	1.35	224
5	Walsh, Reece	NZL	FLB	80	69	0.94	221
6	Garrick, Reuben	MNL	CTW	80	89	1.11	219
7	Grant, Harry	MEL	HOK	65	71	1.3	212
8	Doueihi, Adam	WST	FLB	80	79	1.01	212
9	Tedesco, James	SYD	FLB	75	84	1.09	210
10	Fifita, David	GCT	2RF	65	88	1.31	209
11	Schuster, Josh	MNL	2RF	80	64	0.8	204
12	Walker, Cody	STH	FE	80	84	1.06	204
13	Leilua, Luciano	WST	2RF	80	64	0.82	204
14	Walker, Sam	SYD	HFB	80	67	0.85	202
15	Papalii, Isaiah	PAR	FRF	60	80	1.18	202
16	Curran, Joshua	NZL	2RF	70	71	1.01	201
17	Haas, Payne	BRO	FRF	60	69	1.11	199
18	Gutherson, Clint	PAR	FLB	80	76	0.96	196
19	Frizell, Tyson	NEW	2RF	75	65	0.83	195
20	Mitchell, Latrell	STH	FLB	75	82	1.04	195
21	Kennedy, William	SHA	FLB	80	63	0.81	193
22	Cherry-Evans, Daly	MNL	HFB	80	73	0.91	193
23	Jackson, Josh	BUL	2RF	75	62	0.85	193
24	Holmes, Valentine	NQC	FLB	80	68	0.85	192
25	Barnett, Mitchell	NEW	2RF	70	64	0.91	191
26	Munster, Cameron	MEL	FE	80	72	0.9	189
27	Thompson, Luke	BUL	FRF	55	67	1.18	188
28	Brailey, Jayden	NEW	HOK	75	61	0.77	186
29	Young, Hudson	CBR	2RF	70	60	0.92	186
30	Edwards, Dylan	PTH	FLB	80	62	0.8	184
31	Cook, Damien	STH	HOK	75	64	0.83	183
32	Murray, Cameron	STH	2RF	60	70	1.14	179
33	Johnston, Alex	STH	CTW	80	72	0.93	179
34	Ramien, Jesse	SHA	CTW	80	63	0.83	177
35	Koloamatangi, Keaon	STH	2RF	70	60	0.83	177
36	Burton, Matt	PTH	CTW	80	66	0.83	176
37	Thompson, Corey	GCT	CTW	80	62	0.81	176
38	Mansour, Josh	STH	CTW	80	69	0.88	173
39	Kelly, Brian	GCT	CTW	80	60	0.77	171
40	Gagai, Dane	STH	CTW	80	68	0.86	170
41	Fisher-Harris, James	PTH	FRF	50	64	1.21	170
42	Manu, Joseph	SYD	CTW	80	62	0.77	166
43	Rapana, Jordan	CBR	CTW	80	63	0.78	164
44	Pangai, Tevita*	PTH	FRF	45	67	1.2	153

Ranking	Name	Posn	Rd 23 OPP	RD 23 Est Pts	Rd 24 OPP	RD 24 Est Pts	Rd 25 OPP	RD 25 Est Pts
1	Trbojevic, Tom	FLB	CBR	98	BUL	100	NQC	98
2	Cleary, Nathan	HFB	STH	79	WST	83	PAR	80
3	Ponga, Kalyn	FLB	BUL	86	GCT	73	BRO	79
4	Papenhuyzen, Ryan	FLB	GCT	77	PAR	73	SHA	74
5	Walsh, Reece	FLB	BRO	78	CBR	71	GCT	72
6	Garrick, Reuben	CTW	CBR	70	BUL	75	NQC	75
7	Grant, Harry	HOK	GCT	73	PAR	67	SHA	72
8	Doueihi, Adam	FLB	SHA	71	PTH	64	BUL	76
9	Tedesco, James	FLB	STG	72	STH	65	CBR	72
10	Fifita, David	2RF	MEL	67	NEW	72	NZL	70
11	Schuster, Josh	2RF	CBR	66	BUL	69	NQC	69
12	Walker, Cody	FE	PTH	64	SYD	66	STG	75
13	Leilua, Luciano	2RF	SHA	67	PTH	66	BUL	71
14	Walker, Sam	HFB	STG	63	STH	61	CBR	78
15	Papalii, Isaiah	FRF	NQC	70	MEL	64	PTH	68
16	Curran, Joshua	2RF	BRO	68	CBR	68	GCT	65
17	Haas, Payne	FRF	NZL	67	SHA	65	NEW	67
18	Gutherson, Clint	FLB	NQC	72	MEL	61	PTH	62
19	Frizell, Tyson	2RF	BUL	67	GCT	63	BRO	66
20	Mitchell, Latrell	FLB	PTH	61	SYD	64	STG	70
21	Kennedy, William	FLB	WST	65	BRO	73	MEL	55
22	Cherry-Evans, Daly	HFB	CBR	58	BUL	66	NQC	69
23	Jackson, Josh	2RF	NEW	65	MNL	63	WST	64
24	Holmes, Valentine	FLB	PAR	63	STG	67	MNL	61
25	Barnett, Mitchell	2RF	BUL	65	GCT	61	BRO	64
26	Munster, Cameron	FE	GCT	65	PAR	62	SHA	63
27	Thompson, Luke	FRF	NEW	63	MNL	63	WST	62
28	Brailey, Jayden	HOK	BUL	62	GCT	64	BRO	61
29	Young, Hudson	2RF	MNL	62	NZL	62	SYD	63
30	Edwards, Dylan	FLB	STH	58	WST	65	PAR	61
31	Cook, Damien	HOK	PTH	59	SYD	65	STG	59
32	Murray, Cameron	2RF	PTH	59	SYD	60	STG	60
33	Johnston, Alex	CTW	PTH	58	SYD	58	STG	63
34	Ramien, Jesse	CTW	WST	60	BRO	63	MEL	55
35	Koloamatangi, Keaon	2RF	PTH	58	SYD	60	STG	59
36	Burton, Matt	CTW	STH	56	WST	60	PAR	61
37	Thompson, Corey	CTW	MEL	54	NEW	62	NZL	60
38	Mansour, Josh	CTW	PTH	56	SYD	56	STG	61
39	Kelly, Brian	CTW	MEL	52	NEW	61	NZL	58
40	Gagai, Dane	CTW	PTH	55	SYD	55	STG	60
41	Fisher-Harris, James	FRF	STH	56	WST	57	PAR	58
42	Manu, Joseph	CTW	STG	57	STH	53	CBR	56
43	Rapana, Jordan	CTW	MNL	54	NZL	58	SYD	52
44	Pangai, Tevita*	FRF	STH	50	WST	51	PAR	52