Seeing Double: SC prospects with double lives, Stars, Gades

• SC PLAYBOOK PODCAST: Round 11/12 preview, tactics, trades
• SPY TALK: Attacking revised SC draw, trade/skipper plans

Don’t you love it when the team on the DGW fires!

That’s exactly what we got from the Thunder and Hurricanes in round 10, with both clubs and many popular players delivering in spades.

With only three rounds remaining we now have an all Melbourne DGW and potentially the second last DGW of the year, pending the announcement of the rescheduled Sixers and Heat game.

With five trades, there’s plenty of chances to fix your team and load up on the club you think may deliver, but before we dive into the fixtures for this round, here’s some quick thinking on the strategy for using the five trades each week.

This is just how I’m tackling it but it may help you navigate what is essentially a brand new tactic for BBL SuperCoach.

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Five trades: Thoughts

• Plug the holes – first priority is to use the trades for their intended purpose, which is plugging the holes in your side. If you’ve got a player with COVID for example, swap them out and make sure you have AT LEAST one spare batter and bowler on your bench that you can get into the game if needed.
• Attack the DGW – if you’ve planned ahead, you may already own one or two players from the clubs on the double, but five trades should allow you to maneuverer at least three and potentially four people on the DGW into your side.
• Play the match-ups – the bonus trades gives us the luxury to have a closer look at match-ups and go after someone who others may overlook whose opposition you like the look of. We know for example that clubs like the Renegades, Stars, Strikers and Heat are giving up the most SuperCoach points to opposition, so if you see something you like in the fixtures, consider swinging in a player from the favoured club even if they’re not from the DGW. By the same logic, if one of your keepers has a tough match-up, and maybe even a huge BE, consider flicking them for a round rather than benching them. I personally like the Perth draw for the next three rounds so despite not having the DGW, I will look closely at investing in a Scorchers bowler.
• Set up your loops – yes, you could try make cash with your final trade, but just as useful is having the security of a guaranteed loop for your skipper and potentially a batter too. Consider which clubs play the latest in rounds – personally Josh Kann and Nathan McSweeney look appealing – and ensure you’ve got the ability to use the loopholes.
• Keep one up your sleeve – this may be a conservative tactic that you don’t need if your bench is already full, but keeping a trade up your sleeve for the final three matches could help you out of a pickle. We’ve seen four players – Abbott, Henriques, Green, Munro – get pulled out of lineups on game day due to COVID, so keeping one in your pocket could ensure you’re not playing short on troops.

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Fixtures

• The Melbourne Stars play the Scorchers in Geelong in game 1 and the Renegades at Marvel in game 5. Your vice-captain should come from this team.
• The Melbourne Renegades play the Sixers in Geelong in game 2 and the Stars in game 5. Your skipper could come from this team if your VC doesn’t fire in Game 1.
• The Stars are having a really really poor season in SuperCoach, scoring the lowest amount of points per game and conceding the most. Even when you remove the two COVID-affected games played by ring-ins, plus round 1 with a similarly poor squad, they’re averaging just 430 points scored per game which would be the third least amount of points. Despite the big names, they’re a bad team in poor form, and we also do not know how they’re likely to play given the interruptions they’ve faced.
• The Melbourne Stars opposition for the DGW is mixed, with the Scorchers the best SuperCoach team (most points scored, least conceded) and Renegades the worst (least points scored, most conceded). They could conceivable get smashed in game 1 and score well in the second match, but it’s still a lottery.
• The Melbourne Renegades are similarly poor, with a difficult draw. The Sixers are the = 2nd best team in SuperCoach (second most points scored, third lowest conceded) which will make for a tough match-up in Game 1. Per the above the Stars are also as poor, but someone will have to win in their second match-up which makes it difficult to judge.
• Matches in Geelong tend to favour batters, with the average amount of wickets falling matches in BBL09 (the last year games were played) being just 8. When wickets don’t fall, overall SC points are low. It also can take middle-order batters out of the game and favour openers.
• This compared with Marvel Stadium which, for all its reputation for spin this year has favoured pace and batsman, and is averaging 13 wickets falling per match. Marvel has now produced three games with the first innings team scoring over 200 runs, and finding the right batsman could result in a huge windfall for coaches as we saw with Hales and Sams in round 10.

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Team factors to consider:

Melbourne Stars

• Who is fit to play? Paying attention to the round 10 game between the Stars and Strikers is critical to understanding who from the Stars is actually fit and available. COVID is not a straight forward illness and players are responding differently while in recovery from it. We may expect those that play on Monday night are fit for round 11 but it’s not a certainty. We saw a 19-man squad named for round 10 for this reason.
• The club plays two games in under 24-hours between round 10 and 11. Yes, it’s only T20, but after a week in isolation that’s a lot of cricket for these teams to play. If you’re favouring Stars, wait until you see the final XI before making your trades.
• The price is right for several big names. Zampa, Stoinis and even Rauf might make you money if you trade them in to your side.
• NCN has a soft tissue injury and is unlikely to be available.
• Glenn Maxwell may miss game 1 of the DGW and would be ‘locked out’ from being traded in for the second game which may be the higher scoring of the two. Do you run the risk of missing out on Maxwell in the rivalry game?
• The Stars have back-to-back DGWs with another two games in round 12 against the Strikers and Heat. Playing four games in two rounds is a huge advantage if they deliver, but four shockers in a row could also wipe off immense value.

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Melbourne Renegades

• The Renegades have an unsettled line-up which changes game to game. Who can you bank on to feature in both matches of the DGW?
• The ‘Gades have played more matches at Geelong than any other club and know the conditions well. 
• The club has only reported one player with COVID so far this season, so they may be a slightly safer bet.

The Players

• Glenn Maxwell –  the obvious VC choice in a Stars DGW, but is he even available for game 1? It appears unlikely but watch for the team to be named in game 1 of the round. His BE is likely to be over 150 for the round.
• Marcus Stoinis –  averaging just 13 for the season and available for around $80k. Do you take a punt on Big Papi? The ‘fallen gun’ strategy paid off for Hales owners in round 10 but who knows how much practice Stoin has even had in the last week.
• Adam Zampa – another ‘fallen gun’, we expected Zampa to benefit from the inclusion of Haris Rauf in the side but have not seen much promise from the leggie so far this year. Too cheap to ignore? Without NCN, he may still play the attacking role which has seen him score poorly this season.
• Hilton Cartwright – here’s a stat, they’ve played the same amount of games but Cartwright is averaging 10 more points per game than Maxi. He started the season $80k cheaper and will probably cost more than him after the round. Scoring well despite not having the charmed role. Already in 16% of teams.
• Brody Couch – one of the better cheapies this year. Bowls death and with no NCN this round is expected to shoulder the big role.
• Haris Rauf – averaging 52 from his two matches so far this season. A reliable operator with a good role despite the carnage which has gone on since he arrived. A decent VC option.
• Qais Ahmed – a 3RA of 73, the leg-spinner has been a quiet achiever this season and has looked good in a weak side the last couple of games. Has three scores over 80 including a huge 122 against Brisbane in round 6.
• Joe Clarke – seriously hot form with three half-centuries in a row prior to COVID. Can he keep it going? Is he even available? Watch for the naming of the team.

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• Kane Richardson – the obvious C option this round. Averaging a very respectable 67 this season which is what he’ll cost to acquire this round. The best bowler in the side and bowls well on both grounds.
• Shaun Marsh/Aaron Finch – grouping these two given they’re the same player; openers who don’t bowl or field in hot spots. One will cost you more than the other, and both have had one decent score so far this series. It’s a real dealers choice selection on who you get, if you get one at all.
• Nic Maddinson – the new Renegades Skipper has been a surprising SuperCoach hit this season, thanks in large part to his willingness to bowl himself consistently. Only Kane, Zahir and Reece Topley have more wickets, but frustratingly it’s hard to predict when those overs will come. Also batting at number 3 and 4 and taking catches consistently which is helping – the parallels between him and D’Arcy Short are immense. Will be over $160k but only in 4% of teams to-date.
• Zahir Khan – a man who I owned from rounds 2-6, Zahir has had a rollercoaster of a season. He has four scores over 48, including a 92 against the Strikers. He also has four scores under 31 including two single-figure efforts. Conditions may suit him in Geelong and the price is compelling, but is he trustworthy?
• Sam Harper – reasonably consistent, but does have a low score in him. At a higher price than Marsh and Finch too.

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Summary

Is this a good DGW? No, no it’s not. Both teams have struggled to score well all year and face imposing match-ups in their first match. The only saving grace may be the fact that someone will have to come out on top when they play each other at Marvel.

Geelong looked like a good ground for the spinners when the Renegades played the Heat. It also was fruitful for batters, as is Marvel. I’ll trade as such, considering that finding the right batting POD might be a way to see green arrows. Five trades does create a lot of similarities between sides, so PODs are more relevant than ever.

I already own Clarke, Qais and Kane for this DGW and am interested in Rauf (reliability), Maddinson (POD with upside) and Stoinis (price and role). Zampa also interests me but will need to bowl well against the Strikers tonight otherwise I’m happy to miss. I’m likely to VC Rauf or Clarke and put the C on Kane. 

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Trading in Scorchers for their strong draw also interests me given they’ve got three good games in a row. Next week’s DGW also sees the Stars backing up, with the Strikers joining them again.

The Stars DGW next round looks more promising so I’ll monitor form and BEs but otherwise use my final trade to switch Cooper Connolly to a NPR loop like Kann or McSweeney.