Squad Breakdown: Melbourne Storm SC roster analysis

Melbourne will again be a premiership force and as a result will be hot property in SuperCoach.

However, with Cameron Munster, Brandon Smith and Harry Grant all suspended for Round 1 it makes them a very awkward prospect to kick-off the season.

All at top dollar, starting with two of those three makes for a difficult opening round, however, it’s likely to keep many away which should keep their ownership levels relatively low by their lofty standards.

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With an opening five rounds against the Tigers (A), Rabbitohs (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (H) and Raiders (A), it’s a relatively inviting start to the season, however, with the aforementioned guns missing that enticing Tigers clash is not as nice as it appears for their SC buy credentials.

Further, they’ll be a new-look side for that opening game with half their spine missing.

With our predicted teams, for SuperCoach purposes we’ve included any players returning from injury/suspension in the first three rounds in the starting line-up.

This combines both the likely starting teams and best 17s, as initial price changes occur after Round 3.

Let’s take a look at the Storm’s SuperCoach prospects to begin the new season.

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Predicted team

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. George Jennings 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Brandon Smith

Bench: 14. Nick Meaney 15. Tom Eisenhuth 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Tepai Moeroa

Injuries/suspensions: Cameron Munster (suspension, Round 2), Harry Grant (suspension, Round 2), Chris Lewis (suspension, Round 2), Tui Kamikamica (stood down, indefinite)

Analysis: Another fairly settled line-up, from Round 2 at least, with Cameron Munster and Harry Grant to miss round 1 due to suspension. Cooper Johns will likely deputise for Munster in the opener, however he’s a fresh injury concerns following the trial win over the Knights and is in doubt too.

With Dale Finucane now departed, it’s uncertain how Craig Bellamy will opt to utilise Harry Grant and Smith this season.

I’m hoping Grant will start at hooker with Smith shifting to Finucane’s starting lock role, but we’ll hopefully get a better idea when the trial teams role out.

The alternate option is obviously as per last year with Grant playing 55-60 off the bench, and Smith shifting to lock when he comes on.

Having had the All Star clash included in his suspension, Smith is now available for Round 1.

If this eventuated, any of the three bench middles could start at lock, but I’m not a fan of that personally.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Nick Meaney start ahead of George Jennings on the wing either, the pair will fight for the spot.

Coates is expected to slot onto Josh Addo-Carr’s vacant left edge spot outside of Cam Munster… Lovely.

Doubt grows over Ryan Papenhuyzen’s fitness every day, I’m leaning towards thinking he’ll miss at least the opening round.

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Guns

Cameron Munster // $649,700 // 5/8 // 2021 Ave: 74.1

Taking out Nathan Cleary, I think Cam Munster and Cody Walker are the pick of the halves options by a country mile.

With plenty avoiding Tom Turbo and Cleary, it’ll free up cash for premium options elsewhere, and you’ll want to spend that at fullback and in the halves.

It felt like Munster semi-effortlessly put together a 74 point average last season, failing to really go large at all with a top score of just 115.

Historically he’s not actually had the enormous ceiling we expect – at least on a regular basis like other elite options – but his consistency is supreme.

Last season he had 16 of 18 scores over 50 points, with lows of just 30 and 41, good going that.

While perhaps we need to taper our expectations of his ceiling a touch, I think he has some larger tonnes in him this season.

He’ll be out to repay the club’s faith after some off-field shenanigans.

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Ryan Papenhuyzen // $694,700 // FLB // 2021 Ave: 79.2

I think every SuperCoach needs to be starting with two of Turbo/Teddy/Papy.

Of those three, I’d argue Papy is the best of the lot in terms of value to start the season.

A 14^th minute concussion saw him miss an extensive period of games last year, before returning off the bench in his upcoming four games where he played sub 45 minutes.

This left him with an average season minutes of just 60, and it really took him time to come back from the knock.

Prior to sustaining it, he averaged an outrageous 117.4 points, including a memorable 197 against the Broncos.

He’s one of the most undervalued players to begin the year and will be slotting straight into my team, possibly as skipper in Round 1 against the Tigers.

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Harry Grant // $644,700 // HOK // 2021 Ave: 73.5

At this early stage of the pre-season I find it hard to see myself starting with a hooking combo other than Harry Grant and Chris Randall.

Plenty can change of course, but it seems the savvy option for mine.

Erin Clark may emerge as an option, but only if playing 80 minutes and we have it confirmed before round 1.

Grant is clearly the best option in the position, and due to limited minutes off the bench last season he’s just $70k more than any other genuine option in Smith/Cook/Mahoney.

What role will he play this season exactly? For that we’ll have to find out, but as mentioned above, I can see Brandon Smith shifting to lock, and Grant finally starting at hooker.

He played 59 minutes per game last season, which he hopefully ups this year. If he plays 80, which is possible, he could average onwards of 100.

His game is progressing at such a rapid rate and I’d be terrified not to own him to start the season (or should I say round 2 when he returns).

His 37 base per game last season is only solid, but when you consider the minutes it’s pretty decent.

He based 50 in his only 80 minute game last season.

It’s his significant attacking upside that makes him such a potent SuperCoach option anyway.

Jahrome Hughes // $640,000 // HFB // 2021 Ave: 73

Hughes is an interesting POD option to start the year.

As mentioned above, I have a few ahead of him in the pecking order, but he did average 73 last season.

This included four tonnes, with a top score of 141. He started last season slowly against difficult opposition in the Rabbitohs, Eels and Storm, producing scores of 40, 36 and 38.

Following that, his lowest score in his next 19 games was just 49.

I think he’s priced around his peak, and I do worry that there’s so many attacking options in the team, but he has runs on the board so I won’t knock anyone looking a little left field.

Round 1 against the Tigers without Munster is promising too.

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Mid-rangers

Xavier Coates // $358,400 // CTW // 2021 Ave: 40.9

At the time of writing, Coates is 33% ownership which is a little higher than I’d have hoped as I have him earmarked as a POD to start the season.

It doesn’t appear I’ll get him in that range at this stage, but I love him as a buy, despite the associated risk.

We reference the old rugby league ‘eye test’ a bit, and Coates passes it rather comfortably as we all know.

He did so in what you could only describe as a shambolic Brisbane outfit in recent years, where he scored 11 tries in 17 games in 2021.

He moves to premiership heavyweight Melbourne, outside Cameron Munster, and I don’t see how he can’t significantly increase his 41 point average from last season.

The risk is that if the tries don’t fall early, he has very low scores in his game due to his very poor base of just 18 per game.

However, at just 20-years-old he’s growing into a physical specimen and is sure to increase his workload out of the backend of the field in search of yardage as he develops.

In a gruelling Storm system under Craig Bellamy, he’ll be eager to show his willingness to get involved in the dirty work, and I think his base can increase.

Tries should fall into his lap in this side, and I think 100+ scores are inevitable.

While I think there’s keeper potential in him, realistically I’m aiming to earn around $200k off him before upgrading to a fallen gun.

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Bargain buys

Tepai Moeroa // 205,100 // 2RF-FRF // 2021 Ave: 16.3

I think this is scrapping the barrel a touch, but the Storm don’t appear at this stage to have too many cheapies on the horizon.

With the departure of Dale Finucane and uncertain future of Tui Kamikamica there’s minutes available, 20 of which could go straight to Grant if he goes the distance.

Moeroa has competition for a bench spot, even then minutes will be limited, but at just $205k he’ll warrant consideration if named in round 1.

I do believe the cheapie stocks will have to be pretty slim to consider him, but there is certainly a case to be made.

It feels like he’s been around a long time, but he’s just 26-years-old.

Some stats to consider:

2021

Minutes: 16

Points: 16.3

Points per minute: 1.1

2019

Minutes: 33

Points: 30.8

Points per minute: 0.94

2018

Minutes: 62

Points: 47

Points per minute: 0.75

2017

Minutes: 59

Points: 47

Points per minute: 0.79

So what can we ascertain from this? Not heaps, but we can try.

Realistically 30 minutes per game at 1.1 per minute would see him average 33 points, seeing him make approximately $85k.

On this, I’d want to see him playing at an absolute minimum 35 minutes to consider him (barring a dearth of cheapies available) which is relatively unlikely.

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Avoids

Brandon Smith // $596,600 // HOK-2RF // 2021 Ave: 68

Firstly, I’m not entirely against anyone who wants to start with Smith, but of the popular options at the club I can’t knock too many, so Smith is the unlucky man out.

As mentioned, Grant is a must for me at hooker, so you’d be picking Smith in the 2RF position which is fine.

However, you’re then starting round 1 with two top dollar players who aren’t available, plus it’d mean you’ve probably put a line through Cam Munster.

He’s leaving the club next season and had a few off-season misdemeanours of late.

Generally starting at hooker before shifting to lock, he averaged 60 minutes last season.

If he does start at lock which I’m tipping, he might play a few more minutes, but I also see him getting a decent spell still.

He’ll run more, and probably up him PPM in terms of workrate, but try-scoring opportunities may be slightly fewer.

The big knock is that he scored 11 tries last season which is pretty substantial for a forward, so can he emulate the feats?

Possible, because he’s a genuine weapon in a gun side, but history is against him. That being said, under the new rules introduced last year with rapid ruck speed it wouldn’t surprise me.

There’s some really nice 2RF options at a similar price, so for me I’ll hold off and reassess his minutes on return from suspension.

UPDATE: Having had the All Star clash included in his suspension, Smith is now available for Round 1. This helps his buy credentials immensely.

Others:

Paying a premium price for Christian Welch with minimal upside doesn’t interest me, while Justin Olam is also awkwardly priced and can’t seem to put together string of quality scores despite being a weapon.