Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
Squad Breakdown: Sea Eagles SC roster analysis
We take an in-depth look at the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles SuperCoach credentials heading into the 2022 NRL season.
NRL Pre Season Squad Breakdown
February 16, 2022
- SQUAD ANNOUNCEMENT: SC Spy drops his 2022 team
- BREAKDOWN: How the 2021 title was won and lost
Off the back of the pure brilliance of ‘You Know Who’, Manly are building into a genuine premiership threat with an abundance of X-factor.
Their squad is very similar to last year which bodes well for them, however a horrid opening to the season clouds their SuperCoach credentials to begin the year.
The Sea Eagles have one of the toughest draws to start the competition, before opening up, with games against the Panthers (A), Roosters (A), Bulldogs (H), Raiders (Mudgee) and Knights (A.
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Embed from Getty ImagesWith our predicted teams, for SuperCoach purposes we’ve included any players returning from injury/suspension in the first three rounds in the starting line-up.
This combines both the likely starting teams and best 17s, as initial price changes occur after Round 3.
Let’s take a look at the Sea Eagles SuperCoach prospects to begin the new season.
Embed from Getty ImagesPredicted Team
1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Martin Taupau 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Ethan Bullemor 16. Sean Keppie 17. Toafofoa Sipley
Injuries/suspensions: Josh Aloiai (suspension, Round 4), Josh Schuster (Round 4-6), Haumole Olakau’atu (arm, indefinite), Dylan Walker, Morgan Harper.
Analysis: An extremely settled line-up, with Josh Aloiai to come into the mix for a bench spot on return from suspension in round 4.
Josh Schuster suffered a pre-season ankle injury and may miss up to six weeks.
Andrew Davey is a quality footballer and will come into consideration for the bench role on return from a lengthy injury layoff, however not being named for either trial suggests he’ll be eased back through NSW Cup.
Brisbane recruit Ethan Bullemor is firming and may even start ahead of Lawton. The Schuster injury helps these two significantly.
Haumole Olakau’atu may miss the start of the season due to injury, which would likely see Bullemor and Lawton start.
It’ll also help the credentials of popular dual position cheapie Ben Trbojevic who will be considered for a bench role with Schuster out, and Walker in doubt for Round 1.
19-year-old Tolutau Koula is a truly enticing prospect with blistering speed.
He’s every chance at getting a run at some stage this season, and with Morgan Harper in doubt, round 1 wouldn’t be a shock.
GUNS
Tom Trbojevic // $1,256,100 // FLB // 2021 Ave: 143.3
Put simply, I don’t think you can have Tommy in your team to start the season.
I just think he’s priced at his peak, surely he can’t match that average again?
I just think the speed of the game has to slow down at some point, with refs to start being a little more lenient on things like the six again rule which led to so many blow out score lines last year.
That’s a personal belief, there’s no record saying it’ll happen, so take it as you will, but I don’t see PVL letting 50-0 score lines continue. We’ll wait and see…
At $1.25m you’re just decimating your squad elsewhere. Even if Tommy does go big, I think with the extra $600k you save by going elsewhere you will balance out the points missed, and set up money making potential significantly better.
There are two major factors in Turbo’s favour at the price. Firstly, he’s 10% owned, meaning you’ve got the best player in the game with an obscene ceiling almost all to yourself.
Secondly, you can skipper him each week and double up on those 150-200+ scores.
I don’t see him hitting 150+ in the opening rounds against the Panthers and Roosters, while it’ll be a hard watch in round 3 against the Dogs.
If he does obliterate the first two rounds, I’ll happily sit back and applaud the magic as it unfolds.
I’m pencilling him in for a round 5 purchase at this stage, but that’s based on a price drop, so we’ll see.
Embed from Getty ImagesHaumole Olakau’atu // $512,400 // 2RF // 2021 Ave: 58.4
Olakau’atu does somewhat tempt me at a reasonable price.
After mixing his minutes last season, he averaged 66.9 points per game across his final 12 fixtures where he played 70+ minutes in each.
The fact he scored eight tries in that period is alarming and you’d argue he can’t replicate that, but the man can play footy, so it’s possible…
I also still think he’s finding his feet as a 23-year-old, with further improvement likely.
His 37 base last season wasn’t great, but his attacking upside fairly well balances that out compared to the bigger working forwards.
I do think he’s undervalued to begin the season and worth consideration.
Embed from Getty ImagesMID-RANGERS
Jason Saab // $414,600 // CTW // 2021 Ave: 47.3
Initially I had Saab in my avoids, and while I won’t start with him due to Manly’s opening draw, there’s a case to be made.
Last season when playing alongside Tom Trbojevic, Saab averaged 64 points per game, while he’s currently priced on a 47 point average.
That’s a significant jump for a player who has a ceiling we should be aiming for with our CTWs in 2022, highlighted by a top score of 162 last season.
If he emulated that 64PPG he’d rise to $560k, while a big score could see him well eclipse that $600k barrier.
His 18 base per game is horrific, but honestly, as long as Turbo is on deck, he’ll be scoring tries.
The issue is that if Turbo were to miss games for any reason, particularly a lengthy stint, it’s basically two trades because you’d have to get rid of Saab too, whereas Garrick in the same situation would at least move to fullback where he scores well.
Embed from Getty ImagesBARGAIN BUYS
Andrew Davey // $266,500 // 2RF // 2021 Ave: 20.5
Davey is a class footballer and will benefit with the injury to Josh Schuster.
He should play off the bench and may start in round 1, that being said, he’s coming back from an ACL injury so it’ll all depend on his recovery. This makes him a big watch in pre-season trials.
If Schuster is confirmed out for an extended period as expected, and Davey starts, I’ll get him.
If he’s off the bench, it’ll depend on both the Manly bench make-up and SuperCoach cheapie crop that’ll make the decision.
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Ben Trbojevic // $188,700 // 2RF-CTW // 2021 Ave: 9.0
It’s a fairly similar write up to the above.
If Burbo jags a bench spot he’ll be worth consideration at the price.
The dual 2RF-CTW status alongside Izack Tago is extremely handy, and Euan Aitken for anyone nabbing him.
Let’s reassess his credential in a few weeks when we know a bit more.
Embed from Getty ImagesAVOIDS
Daly Cherry-Evans // $695,400 // HFB // 2021 Ave: 79.3
If it weren’t for the draw I’d be really keen on DCE as an alternative to Cleary (should he miss round 1).
But he is capable of throwing out low scores as evidenced by seven under 41 last season.
Ideally he goes low early on, before picking him up at a significant discount at a similar stage to Turbo.
Reuben Garrick // $767,500 // CTW // 2021 Ave: 87.5
Not that it should impact things too significantly, but surely Garrick is hard done by not getting dual CTW-FLB status?
You could argue that Garrick scored better with Turbo last season, so why wouldn’t he be above with Saab?
But the obvious difference is approximately $340k worth of salary cap space.
As per 2021, I think the money will be made this year in nailing the timing of CTWs who sky-rocket, that you can sell off at a rapid and hefty profit.
Garrick for me is already at his peak price, throw in Manly’s opening draw and I can’t consider him.
Let’s hope for a price drop early on where we can snare him for sub $650k in a month or so.
With Tommy priced out of the market, it means I can go without any players from the Filth, and it kind of makes me happy. Up Up Cronulla….
I feel like this is a little harsh on Garrick. Averaged 97 once Turbo came back, so even a 10% regression has him breaking even. Even averaging 80 would be a reduction of 20 points per game and still put him top 5-6 players in the game and be well clear of the next best CTW other than To’o. I still feel Manly will be a top 4 team and score plenty points so pretty confident of him being top few CTWs at the end of the year which will save trades. Plays round 13 and will also play fullback when Turbo is on Origin duties. May be the only way to get a piece of Turbo for a long time.
As for the first few rounds, Penrith may be without Cleary in Round 1 and both Penrith and the Roosters have new combinations to form with younger players coming in on the edge and he managed to score hundreds against Melbourne and the Eels last year and 87 in a losing prelim final. If they jam on Turbo, Garrick could be the big winner.
Love Turbo at only 10%.
Fair shout on Garrick mate, certainly not an obscene price and will be fairly low-ownership.
Just personally not looking to pay up that money for a CTW, but his base is excellent so not entirely base reliant.
Two games to start without tries and that breakeven will soar.
Fair point, I suppose I was looking at on the basis of pure output rather than position, points are points. Those first two scores will drop out very quickly, so if he scores well in Round 3 he may not actually drop that much. A risky play though I will admit.
Risky, but it’d be a play for the ages! You’ll feel like a God if it does and nobody can afford him haha