Final Word: Trades, tactics, tips, Round 2

• SPY TALK: Tackling the week’s big questions
• CAPTAIN’S CHALLENGE: Skippers to target and avoid

It was a very interesting first week in 2022 NRL Supercoach to say the least. 

The tweaking of the six-again rule with penalties now given for infringements in the attacking team’s own 40 metres, coupled with some clear interpretation changes of the rules, has brought Supercoach scoring down significantly. 

Is Round 1 an aberration or are we seeing the new normal? 

Like most things it’s probably somewhere in between. It makes Round 2 this week one of the most interesting weeks in Supercoach for a long time. 

If scoring is down across the board that will mean a lot of marquee players dropping significantly in price possibly.

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Strategy 

2022 saw me go into the season with a clear strategy of stacking my team with what I refer to as VP’s – Value propositions. 

Basically a Value Proposition player is one that I feel is underpriced and represents good to great value and will average better than their priced average to start the season (reflected as their Rd 1 breakeven). 

12 out of the 25 players I chose in my squad scored better than their breakeven and when I looked at the differential with points scored vs breakevens my squad scored +46. 

To give some context of how dire last weekend was for Supercoach scoring compared to last year, I looked at the average of the top 20 averaging players from 2021. 

Out of the 20 top averaging Supercoach players there were 15 who played in Round 1. 

Cleary and Douehi missed due to injury and Latrell, Munster and Harry Grant were out due to suspensions. 

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One out of the 15 players scored better than their breakeven. The differential with points scored vs breakevens for those 15 marquee players in Round 1 was -441, an average of 29.4 Supercoach points per player down on their average. 

Given that, I am pretty happy with the side I’ve picked despite scoring only 889 in Round 1 and now sitting in 46,386^th place. 

In saying that, I am bucking the trend of my SC Playbook colleagues who are keen to save trades for another look and then make some changes next week. 

My plan in the past and this year has always been to trade hard and fast early to try to rectify any mistakes I may have made with my original side. 

Therefore I’m looking at the following trades this round: 

Trade-1         Connor Watson to Harry Grant 

Trade-2        Billy Smith or Sean Russell to Jeremiah Nanai (through duels) 

Trade-3        AFB to Ethan Bullemor

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I Got it Wrong 

As a Supercoach analyst and student of the game of NRL I often make predictions and have strong opinions on teams chances and players prospects. 

This segment is where I am going to “fess up” that I may have made a wrong read on something. 

This week I’m looking back on my call during the pre-season SC Playbook podcasts and how dismissive I was of the Newcastle Knights team. 

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Sure it’s only one game, but behind defending champions Penrith Panthers I was most impressed and surprised by the Knights effort in Round 1. 

They appeared to be well balanced and disciplined and appear to have corrected their clunky attack that seemed to play away from the strengths of their marquee player Kalyn Ponga. 

One game doesn’t make a season, but I saw enough to say that the Knights are going to be relevant both in NRL and in SuperCoach this season, so yeah, I got that one wrong!

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PODs & Super PODS 

Here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and Super PODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar. 

I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on: 

PODs (My top 6 ranked) 

1.    Toby Sexton – I started with this young lad in my side as a POD for the HFB position and I wasn’t disappointed. He played extremely well in a depleted Titans side against one of the best sides in the comp in the Parramatta Eels. Goal-kicking for a Titans side that has plenty of points in them is icing on the top.   

2.   Josh Curran – Josh Curran was just about the best player on the field for both teams in the Warriors vs Dragons game on Saturday. He’s picked up where he left off and at just over 5% ownership is a definite POD option.     

3.   Harry Grant – At 8% ownership and sure to rise some this week, but how much is the question? How many Supercoaches will trade straight away for the Melbourne dummy half? I’m one of them, so I’d say there will be a few joining me. 

4.   Tyson Frizell – 2.4% owned and scoring 77 with pure base and base attack points. If he can keep that up Frizell could be a must-have. The Knights new attacking structure suits his Supercoach scoring prospects down to a tee.  

5.   Kurt Capewell – I had a very close look at Capewell in the pre-season but decided against him. He is on my Watchlist however and should be on plenty of Supercoaches because he has points in him and is locked in for 80 minutes every week on the edge for the rejuvenated Broncos. 

6.   Jeremiah Nanai – the hype is real – get the kid in!

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Super PODs (My top-5 ranked)

1.     Matt Timoko – I heard Timmy wrapping this lad up all pre-season and to be honest I was questioning the hype because he didn’t really make it onto my radar last year, but he certainly made an impression on the weekend. Super tackle busting ability and definitely a Super POD!

2.    Trent Loiero – With Cheese out for over a month with a broken hand and Christian Welch out for the season expect Loiero to be banking some serious minutes for the Storm. He has significant upside at that price.    

3.    Tom Gilbert – Priced at a 41 avg and looks like he has won the favour of coach Todd Payten. Does come with some job security risk with Luki looming on the bench, but to be honest Gilbert looks good and is very hard working. 

4.    Dominic Young – Looked a lot more solid than last year and with the clear improvement in the Knights attacking structure he could be in for a huge season.  

5.    Latrell Mitchell – With a weekend like the marquee fullbacks in SC had I couldn’t leave Latrell off this list at 2% ownership. Of course he comes with significant risk, but the fact the Rabbitohs were so ordinary against the Broncos probably means a lot rests on the shoulders of Latrell and Cody. Definite close watch. 

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Close Watch

This segment will list the players to keep a close watch on over the next month for their Supercoach prospects:

1.     Mikaele Ravalawe, Payne Haas and Dane Gagai – Fantastic starts to the season but can they and will they maintain the rage?

2.    Kalyn Ponga – Joey Johns seems to be having an effect on the Knights attack already and although he didn’t quite explode, Kalyn Ponga looked very ominous in the game vs the Roosters. Ponga could be in my side sooner rather than later. 

Round 14 Match-ups

A lot of the defences in the NRL looked good to start the season, however I do see some key match ups that I like this weekend. 

I like Tom Trbojevic matched up against a Roosters side seemingly not in a big hurry to find their feet in 2022. I feel Turbo will tonne up for the first time in 2022 against the Roosters, but certainly not the last. 

The Titans are a side who look to play plenty of attacking footy and with a dry track at CBUS Super Stadium (one of the best playing surfaces in the NRL) I believe the Warriors game will have plenty of points in it. 

Players like Josh Curran, David Fifita, Phillip Sami, Brian Kelly, Reece Walsh and Toby Sexton will all benefit from this.  

I know it was only one game, but I think I might’ve grossly underestimated the Newcastle Knights prospects for 2022. 

Sure the Roosters were underdone, but the Knights were equally ultra impressive. Their new attacking shape was smooth and they are a tough physical side. 

Coming up against the Wests Tigers in a day game looks a juicy prospect for players like Kalyn Ponga, Dominic Young, Tyson Frizell and Dane Gagai. 

Captain

It sort of goes without saying if you are running with Tommy Turbo then you’re captaining him. No Turbo then you’ll have to put your thinking cap on and consider the best option out of David Fifita, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Kalyn Ponga. 

Harry Grant is a left field option for those confident he will play big minutes. Probably only consider this if Tyron Wishart drops out of the 17. 

PLAYER PERFORMANCE MARKETS ARE HERE! Topsport are offering markets based on fantasy NRL scoring, we’ll be previewing them all season long. Check them out, and use the code ‘SCPLAYBOOK’ when signing up.

Topsport Bets of the Week

Please Gamble Responsibly, 18+ only.

2022 – Starting with $1000 bank  

Round-1 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of TopSport) – Total Bets $60

Lock of the Week –  Warriors v Titans Over 8.5 tries @ $2.11 x $20

To score a try Multi – K Ponga/D Fifita/R Papenhuyzen @ $12 x $10

Multi– Storm/Eels/Raiders/Knights all win @ $5.70 (TopUp Token) x $20

First Tryscorer – AJ Brimson (Titans) @ $23 x $10