Final Word: Trades, tactics, tips, Round 3

• SPY TALK: Tackling the week’s big questions
• BACK-ROW: Top five picks to replace Fifi and Crichton

After week 2 I think it’s fair to say we are in a new economy with Supercoach this year. 

Scores are down significantly across the board and we may be seeing a return to base-heavy players being very valuable. 

In general I’ve got to say I’m really enjoying the unpredictable nature of the NRL results and also the challenge of adapting my SC team to the new conditions. 

The question still remains whether this a slow start by the marquee players or the slight change in rules and the defensive resolve of some of the previous easy-beat teams means this is the new normal for Supercoach? 

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Strategy 

With a score of 961 on the weekend I’ve made a solid jump to 22,813^th place and I’m feeling reasonably happy with where my team makeup is at. 

My plan is to stick with my 2022 strategy of stacking my team with VP’s – Value Propositions. 

As the first two weeks have played out a number of  Value Proposition players have presented themselves as targets for Trade-ins and a number of my squad also have me considering them as trade out options.  

On my trade out list I have E Bullemor, K Staggs, B Smith, L Ilias and even Angus Crichton and David Fifita. 

On my trade in list I am considering N Hynes, T Frizell, P Haas, P Hiku, J Bromwich, J Curran, H Ola’kuatu, M Mbye and Cam Munster. 

Despite using my first trade boost last week I am very likely to use another one this week to get my side as close to the side I want as possible. 

I also believe this week is critical as price rises occur following all the games and I want to maximise my cash generators whilst climbing my way up the ranks. I imagine the majority of Supercoach sides will be using two if not three trades this week!  

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I want Nicho Hynes a lot, but I don’t know where he fits into my side with Sexton and Schneider occupying my HFB position and Teddy and Papi in the FLB slots. 

I’m not sure I’m keen to trade any of those at this stage, so I may have to just sit and watch Nicho for the time being. Possibly therein lies the answer. 

Fifita and Staggs have come in for a lot of criticism from Supercoaches for their output but they have excuses. Both come into the season off significant injuries and they are both power athletes.

So often you hear supercoaches asking why do Fifita/Staggs have such limited involvement and why are they so gassed with what on paper is a small workrate? 

I believe the answer lies within those injury layoffs and both of them still returning to full fitness and the fact that they expend so much powerful energy on each effort. 

The explosive output is what allows them to break tackles, make linebreaks and score and set up tries. 

Tevita Pangai Jnr is in a similar boat for mine and that’s why the Bulldogs use him in three separate stints in games. 

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Maybe the scrutiny should be more on Ryan Papenhuyzen (BE 104) and James Tedesco (BE 131) who have both had fairly tardy Supercoach starts to the season? 

If the economy has changed than can we really expect Papi to average 79 and Teddy to average 87? 

If your answer is no then maybe they’re your trade outs as risky as it may seem! 

I’m not fully committed to these, but this is what I’m considering at the moment for my three trades this weekend:

Trade-1      Angus Crichton to Payne Haas (through duals)  

Trade-2      David Fifita to Josh Curran 

$285k in the bank after those two trades 

Option of 3^rd trade – Staggs/Russell/B Smith to Mbye or Peta Hiku  

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PODs & Super PODS 

Here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and Super PODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar. 

I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on: 

PODs (My top-6 ranked) 

1.    Josh Curran – Josh Curran was great again for the Warriors in a losing side. In absolutely no danger of losing his spot and despite the Warriors poor start they have a fairly good draw coming up.      

2.   Haumole Olakau’atu – Tough name to spell so I hope I got it right. This kid is a flat out baller. Scores of 51 and 77 with 18 tacklebreaks over two weeks and they played the Panthers and Roosters. Set to wreak havoc on this competition when Manly find form and expect it to be reflected in his Supercoach scoring!

3.   Tyson Frizell – 2.4% owned last week and now up to 3%. Expect his ownership numbers to stay low and expect him to keep churning out the 65+ scores. This might be the cheapest you get him in 2022.   

4.   Toby Sexton – Started with this young lad in my side as a POD for the HFB position and I wasn’t disappointed. Played extremely well in a depleted Titans side against one of the best sides in the comp in Parramatta Eels. Backed it up with a solid performance vs the Warriors. Goalkicking for a Titans side that has plenty of points in them is icing on the top.   

5.   Blayke Brailey – I truly believe this is Brailey’s breakout season similar to Reed Mahoney last year or the year before. He has the games under his belt and has the confidence and Brailey has maybe the best ruck recognition in the NRL behind Harry Grant. Hard to fit in if your running with Harry and Randall, but is certain to earn some money and keep posting good scores. 

6.   Moses Mbye – An intriguing proposition is Mbye. McCullough out for an extended stint and Dragons seemingly don’t have a hooker replacement although maybe Jaden Sullivan comes into the equation? TLT will tell us all. 

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Super PODs (My top-5 ranked)

1.     Campbell Graham – It’s been a really slow start by the Bunnies, but you could see in the latter stages of the second half last weekend they were starting to get there. It hasn’t affected Campbell Graham’s blistering start to the SC season pumping out a 60 and a 78 in the two games. Priced at just under $500k, expect his ownership to spike significantly.  

2.    Peta Hiku – Has got Supercoach pedigree and appears to have a prominent role in the Cowboys attack generating points in a lot of different ways. Solid value proposition.   

3.    Reece Walsh – Yes it’s gonna take some guts to pick someone at FLB rather than Teddy, Turbo or Papi, but Walsh certainly is an option. You’ll have to ride the rollercoaster though because he is 100 miles an hour and has errors in him. Equally he can be brilliant as they come! Supercoach friendly game with goal-kicking. 

4.    Phillip Sami – Passes the eye test and looks very sharp and motivated in 2022. Some job security concerns possibly with the imminent return of Corey Thompson and the outstanding form of Greg Marzhew, so tread carefully.  

5.    Will Kennedy – Has quietly started the year on fire! Sure Nicho Hynes is getting a lot of the attention, but if you are brave enough to go away from Papi, Teddy and Turbo at FLB then Kennedy might just be your man. 

CLOSE WATCH

This segment will list the players to keep a close watch on over the next month for their Supercoach prospects:

1.     Andrew Davey – Just needs the opportunity and the minutes and Davey has a game built for Supercoach. 

2.    Waqa Blake – Could this be Waqa Blake’s true position as a winger?  I thought he was sensational on the wing for the Eels last weekend.  

3.    Jesse Bromwich – scored 59 SC points in just over 60mins in his first game of season 2022. Stepped up in the absence of Christian Welch. In 2021 he only scored over 59 Supercoach points once the whole season so need to see him back it up before jumping on. 

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ROUND 2 MATCH-UPS 

Last chance saloon for many owners of Tom Trbojevic who gets the favourable match up against the Bulldogs, a team he has torched in previous seasons. But it’s not the same Bulldogs and arguably it’s not the same NRL game as was played last year. 

Maybe a 100+ score is on the cards, but the days of Turbo cracking 200’s seem dead and buried. DCE and Haumole Olakau’atu should be primed for big showings also. 

If you have Josh Curran or Reece Walsh then the match-up against a battered Tigers side might be the best chance they get all season as a captain choice. 

The Sunday afternoon game at Suncorp Stadium between the Cowboys and the Broncos should suit players like Payne Haas, Kotoni Staggs, HTF, Peta Hiku, Jason Taumalolo and Jeremiah Nanai. 

CAPTAIN

Consider the fullbacks in Turbo, Papi and Teddy or if you want to take them on then players like Cam Munster, Payne Haas, Haumole Olakau’atu, Josh Curran and even Reece Walsh present alternate options. 

PLAYER PERFORMANCE MARKETS ARE HERE! Topsport are offering markets based on fantasy NRL scoring, we’ll be previewing them all season long. Check them out, and use the code ‘SCPLAYBOOK’ when signing up.

TOPSPORT BETs of the WEEK

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2022 – Starting with $1000 bank  

Current Balance – $940 (-$60)

Round-1 Recap

Not to be for round-1 bets. Brimson made the break but Fermor scored the first try. Warriors v Titans had six tries in the first half on a hot day at the Gold Coast and looked set to be a high scoring half, but the Warriors lack of execution really hurt them and the bet. 

Round-2 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of TopSport) – Total Bets $60

Lock of the Week –  Warriors and Manly win @ $2.16 x $20

To score a try Multi – J Tapine/H Olakau’atu @ $29 (TopUp) x $5

Multi– Storm v Eels Under 38 points/Panthers v Knights Under 38.5 points @ $3.75 (TopUp) x $20

First Tryscorer

Joseph Tapine (Raiders) @ $41 x $5 

Josh Curran (Warriors) @ $31 x $5

H Olakau’atu (Sea Eagles) @ $20 x $5