Quantium data analysis: Rd 3, vital numbers to beat the best

• SQUAD BREAKDOWN: Round 3 SuperCoach teams analysis
• BACK-ROW: Top five picks to replace Fifi and Crichton

Week 2 was another tough week for most Supercoaches. Only 13 players scored more than 80 and only three of those were owned by at least 10% of teams – Nicho Hynes, Harry Grant and James Tedesco.

A number of players who performed well in round 1 regressed to normal in round 2 – and in many positions, the highest scoring players so far are very lowly owned. 

On one hand that could create an opportunity (who thought Reuben Garrick or Isaiah Papali’i would be must owned players this time last year) – but on the other they could be traps. Only time will tell!

Without further ado, let’s get into our analysis of the top 100,000 teams.

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Fullback

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback. 

Not surprisingly, with Teddy posting a very solid 84, the table has settled from last week such that 43% of the top 1,000 teams own Teddy vs 44% of the top 100,000.

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The main noticeable stat at fullback is Turbo. With so much debate pre-season as to whether he was worth spending so much money on, after two rounds he has hurt his owners. 

Whilst 20% of the top 100,000 teams own Tom – only 3% of the top 1,000 own him.  In fact, to answer a question on Twitter, the highest ranked team with Turbo after 2 weeks is 128th.   Now that could all change this week with one huge score against the Bulldogs – but with a BE of 307, it is not surprising to see him the third most sold player this week. 

CTW

Without labouring every player, the table below hopefully shows pretty clearly which CTWs have outperformed vs expectations in the first two weeks of the competition. 

It’s a strange looking list – and I suspect that many of us are trying to work out whether the results regress back to what we expect or there are players we should be buying now.

In fact, none of the top 9 CTWs through two rounds have an overall ownership beyond 3.9% (and that is Dominic Young) so it’s a bizarre start to the year. Thankfully Izack Tago rounds out the top 10 and he’s the most popular CTW, so we got one right!

Dane Gagai has been superb in the first two weeks at Newcastle – and he is the highest scoring player overall after 2 rounds. 

Only 2% of teams own him, but 6% of the top 1,000 own him. Is he a must own CTW in 2022?  It’s not like he’s a rookie player we are seeing for the first time.  He also has a tough drawing coming up and then a likely Origin campaign so I personally will be passing – but I could well be wrong!

Conversely, Kotoni Staggs has underperformed through two rounds in a Brisbane side that looks pretty good.  One dropped ball cost him a bag of points though so I’m not sure he is worth sacking just yet? 

Anyone who forked out the big bucks for Brian To’o took a hit when poor Brian went down with a knee injury.

Five-eighth

As mentioned last week, I personally think five-eighth is the most difficult position this year.  After two rounds, the highest scoring players are Clifford, Wighton, Dearden, Moylan, Lachlan Croker and Will Smith.  I went early on Clifford last week when SJ had to make way, but I’m not expecting him to remain the top five-eighth.   

Supercoach aside, Matt Burton is going to be a very special player. Yes, I’m a biased Bulldogs supporter but wow – what a player.  He will post some big scores throughout this year.

Halfback

The stand out performer at halfback in round two was Nico Hynes and he is now the highest scoring player overall. Hynes may well prove to be the top halfback this year. 

He has a great attacking game (in a team that looks like it will go well), solid defence, kicks goals and won’t play Origin. He ticks a lot of boxes. I’m kind of stuck with Sam Walker and Brad Schneider but those with Hynes owners would be pretty happy at this point.

2RF

The big question at 2RF would be what to do with guns David Fifita and Angus Crichton.

Both have started slow, and Angus is now benched.  In saying that, both are proven Supercoach weapons with high ceilings. Perhaps now is not the time to panic.

Viliame Kikau has started on fire, but we know he has those games in him. He also has a low score in him. He’s not going to keep scoring doubles..

The top 11 2RFs through two rounds are owned by 10.1% of teams or less. 

FRF

Payne Haas remains the highest scoring and most popular FRF after two rounds.

In saying that, his game in Round 2 showed why I don’t think he’s a MUST own. He played well – and decent minutes – but his score of 67 was very solid without putting fear into teams without him. Tevita Pangai score 68 and he looked short of a gallop.

HOK

Harry Grant – what a player and what a Supercoach gun. If it wasn’t for COVID, I suspect Harry would be the most traded in player. But alas, we get another week to plan for that. 

In the meantime, 23% of the top 20,000 are stuck with him as an NPR this week. 

Round 2 Captaincy Choices

Not surprisingly, choice of captain once again had a huge bearing on ranking this week.  Again, there was actually a huge amount of variation in captaincy selections this week. 

Payne Haas was the most popular captain, followed by Turbo, Paps, Fifita and Teddy. None really killed it though – with Teddy scoring best with 84. Nicho Hynes rewarded those brave enough to captain him.

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