Steven Nikolovski
2021 AFL SuperCoach runner-up
Money movers: Players to trade/target to up cap value, Rd 3
2021 AFL SuperCoach runner-up Steve Nikolovski assesses all the key players set to make big cash, and those set to plummet in value.
AFL
March 29, 2022
It’s here, bubble week!
One of the most important times in the season where you can correct your errors with your starting team.
For those new to the game, players who have played two games are on the bubble and their price will fluctuate depending on their on-field performance in the previous two matches and the upcoming match.
Their breakeven is the score they need to get to keep their price the same. We obviously want to target people with very low breakevens (BE) so we can make money, or even better negative BE’s!
Let’s have a look to see what’s on offer for us coaches this week, there’s a bit to unpack as most players in the league have now played two matches.
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Embed from Getty ImagesPlayers to consider trading IN:
| Player | BE | Price | Projected Score | Proj $ Change |
| Jack Hayes | -135 | $102,400 | 98 | $104.2k |
| Tristan Xerri | -77 | $208,200 | 58 | $60.4k |
| Joshua Rachele | -68 | $184,800 | 88 | $69.6k |
| Jack Ginnivan | -66 | $199,900 | 61 | $56.8k |
| Patrick McCartin | -58 | $157,800 | 75 | $59.3k |
| Dylan Stephens | -56 | $167,800 | 49 | $46.8k |
| Jake Bowey | -54 | $265,600 | 78 | $58.9k |
| Jason Horne-Francis | -52 | $207,300 | 87 | $62k |
| Beau McCreery | -50 | $210,900 | 58 | $48.2k |
| Will Brodie | -46 | $224,300 | 67 | $50.4k |
| Patrick Naish | -42 | $189,600 | 77 | $53.2k |
| Willie Rioli | -41 | $225,300 | 78 | $53.3k |
| Alex Davies | -38 | $202,500 | 68 | $47.2k |
| Nick Daicos | -38 | $193,800 | 76 | $50.8k |
| Jai Newcombe | -34 | $261,300 | 69 | $46.1k |
| Connor MacDonald | -34 | $117,300 | 52 | $38.6k |
| Patrick Cripps | -28 | $454,800 | 113 | $63k |
| Mitch Hinge | -28 | $180,900 | 45 | $32.7k |
| Matt Rowell | -27 | $342,900 | 86 | $50.7k |
| Stephen Coniglio | -26 | $261,300 | 92 | $52.8k |
| Jye Caldwell | -25 | $266,700 | 78 | $46k |
| Lachie Neale | -20 | $543,200 | 121 | $63.2k |
| Tom Green | -19 | $430,000 | 106 | $55.7k |
| Finn Maginness | -19 | $143,700 | 40 | $26.3k |
| Luke Foley | -18 | $244,900 | 65 | $37k |
| Charlie Curnow | -18 | $224,300 | 61 | $35.2k |
| Lloyd Meek | -17 | $263,700 | 62 | $35.2k |
| Isaac Heeney | -15 | $454,500 | 108 | $55k |
| George Hewett | -15 | $399,000 | 90 | $46.8k |
Top 10 Trade in Targets:
- Jack Hayes – Almost as close to a must-have as you can get, as long as he is definitely playing next round with Paddy Ryder lurking in the VFL. If you don’t have him, and he’s named, get him in and get that potential $100k rise!
- Tristan Xerri – Clearly the #1 ruck now at the Kangaroos with Goldstein playing out of the square. His projected score is quite low too coming off a 120 and averaging 100, so I expect a much bigger price rise than $60k. Another huge trade in target as he’s scoring potential and job security both look great long term.
- Joshua Rachele – Has looked outstanding and should keep his spot in the Crows side all season. Looks a reliable F6 until we reach upgrade season.
- Jason Horne-Francis – A bull and should play most games and continue to score well.
- Lachie Neale – Back to his Brownlow best and should be in everybody’s side.
- Patrick Cripps – Has looked back to best too. I just wonder if he can sustain such a level especially with the number of goals he’s been kicking lately.
- Jake Bowey – Looks the main man coming out of defence in Salem’s absence. His huge score of 151 will be in his breakeven cycle for a few weeks so he will make money fast.
- Patrick McCartin – Has really cemented himself in the Swans back 6 and looks to be a great money maker and reliable player on our field.
- Dylan Stephens – Another who seems to have cemented his spot at the Swans on the wing. Getting the ball and using it well. Should continue to score well.
- Will Brodie – Time on ground is an issue but job security and scoring potential is not. A great forward option if you didn’t start him.
Players to consider trading OUT:
| Player | BE | Price | Projected Score | Proj $ Change |
| Tom Mitchell | 211 | $638,100 | 109 | -$45.6k |
| Bailey Williams | 210 | $419,400 | 47 | -$73k |
| Dayne Zorko | 206 | $595,400 | 94 | -$50.1k |
| Max Gawn | 204 | $657,400 | 104 | -$44.8k |
| Jack Steele | 203 | $685,800 | 103 | -$44.7k |
| Dyson Heppell | 202 | $541,000 | 95 | -$47.9k |
| Jack Henry | 197 | $447,400 | 48 | -$66.4k |
| Chad Wingard | 195 | $501,500 | 75 | -$53.7k |
| Jarryd Lyons | 188 | $640,100 | 128 | -$26.9k |
| David Swallow | 176 | $489,900 | 75 | -$48.4k |
| Cameron Guthrie | 173 | $616,700 | 109 | -$28.5k |
| Joel Selwood | 172 | $549,000 | 94 | -$34.8k |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 171 | $651,700 | 124 | -$31k |
| Tarryn Thomas | 171 | $459,300 | 73 | -$43.6k |
| Ollie Wines | 161 | $612,600 | 102 | -$26.4k |
| Clayton Oliver | 160 | $672,000 | 111 | -$21.9k |
| Lachie Whitfield | 151 | $502,600 | 74 | -$34.3k |
Top 5 Trade out Targets:
- Tarryn Thomas – A failed pick unfortunately. Not scoring well and now has a rib injury. Cut your losses and trade him out to Jordan De Goey or Isaac Heeney.
- Dyson Heppell – You must be a Bombers fan if you have him. With so many good defender options you should sideways trade before it’s too late. A 42 and 72 is not we are looking for at his premium price.
- Tom Mitchell – Doesn’t look his normal self at the moment. Typically he scores well when the Hawks win, so look out if they start losing. He is at a price where you can easily sideways trade to a premium in form option.
- Dayne Zorko – Playing a different role and has some injury concerns. Scored well last week despite his calf issue. There’s better options for us in the middle.
- Lachie Whitfield – He was a bit of a gamble pick at his price coming off his “best pre-season ever”. Owned by 51% and with a breakeven of 151 with two scores in the 70’s. He doesn’t look completely right to me and running around a little one-paced and not getting much ball. I’m moving him on for a player in form.
Final Say
I’ve effectively disregarded the uber premiums in the top 5 trade out section such as Jack Steele and Max Gawn. In my opinion you should not be trading these players out as they will turn things around and make you look a fool for trading.
We need strong hands and to hold firm with these guys! Ride the rollercoaster as they say.
With regards to trade in targets, trust your gut and research. Apart from Jack Hayes the rest should make around the same money so choose someone you like and who fits your team structure.
I have ignored Jack Ginnivan and Beau McCreery as I don’t think they can sustain the level they have been producing in the first two rounds. No issues if you decide to go with Ginnivan as his BE is very tempting.
Finally, don’t be afraid to trade boost. This is an important round where you can establish significant cash generation. Pull the trigger and set yourself up for the long term.
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