Quantium data analysis: Rd 4, vital numbers to beat the best

• SQUAD BREAKDOWN: Round 4 SuperCoach teams analysis
• SIT v START: Who to play in your 17, Round 4

Week 3 saw a return to higher scoring, with 10 players posting tonnes including popular players such as Nicho Hynes, Cameron Murray, Cameron Munster, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Jeremiah Nanai – all owned by at least 10% of teams.

Those who captained (or looped) Nicho Hynes surged up the rankings and I suspect everyone else started making plans for calling Hynes up this week. 

It’s no surprise that he is the second most popular player trade in this week. The challenge of course is how to bring him in?

Let’s get into our analysis of the top 100,000 teams.

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Fullback

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback. 

One of the biggest pre-season questions was to Turbo or not to Turbo. Interestingly, approximately 50% of the teams who did start with Turbo, sold him last week. 

With a break-even of 307 (and eventual price drop of $173k I guess they had no choice).  He’s a HUGE POD for team #96 who is the highest ranked team who owns him though.  There are now only two teams in the top 400 who own Turbo.

I’ve added Nicho Hynes to the FLB table this week. Given his form and ownership, he is suddenly a very viable FLB option – even in front of say Teddy. 40% of the top 100,000 teams own Nicho – but a massive 94 of the top 100 teams own him!

CTW

Izack Tago is a very popular guy amongst Supercoaches so far. He’s the most owned player in the game and has duly delivered with the second highest tally to date at CTW. He looks a very handy player.

Are the rule changes shifting us back towards second rowers available for selection at CTW being the way to go? Guys like Beau Fermor, Jack Bird and Euan Aitken are all performing strongly and look very solid.

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I have none of them unfortunately. In contrast, the top 100 teams so far are all heavily overweight in these three guys relative to the top 100,000 teams.

What to do with Kotoni Staggs?  I’m a Staggs fan but he’s seriously testing my patience now and with Taylan May waiting in the wings, I think it might be time to take some cash while I can and upgrade elsewhere. It feels sideways, but cash is important early in the season, and I’m just not convinced by Staggs yet. 

Those who went for the cash with Peta Hiku (and Viliame Kikau at 2RF) were reminded that he has never really been a proven Supercoach keeper.

Five-eighth

After commenting last week how difficult five-eighth is, Cameron Munster and Dylan Brown both looked superb on the weekend. Both have such Supercoach friendly games when they are at their best and they looked sharp.

Jake Clifford came back to earth in an undermanned Knights side against the Panthers but there is no shame in that. With trades to be made elsewhere, he will survive at least another week in my side.

Luke Keary has been a huge disappointment so far. 28% of the top 100,000 teams own Keary, but only 5 of the top 100 – that pretty much sums it up.

Neither Lachlan Ilias nor Talatau Amone are inspiring confidence to be able to start them yet.

Halfback

The standout performer at halfback in round three was once again Nicho Hynes and he is easily the highest scoring halfback through three rounds.  He looks a must-have to me. 

Nathan Cleary’s imminent return will pique plenty of interest – it’s worth remembering that he has been an absolute standout at half back in recent years. Surely he won’t end up being a POD?

Brad Schneider did the job for the 47% of teams in the top 100,000. His 79 should lead to some nice price changes over the next couple of weeks.

Toby Sexton is providing a very handy POD for the top 100 teams so far.

2RF

Cameron Murray, you little beauty. I love this bloke as a player (and human being), and I love him as a Supercoach player. Just so solid.

In contrast, Angus Crichton’s benching proved a nightmare for owners. Approximately half of his owners in the top 100,000 sold him last week – and the rest probably wish they did.  At his current price, he looks a clear sell.

The big question at 2RF for me remains what to do with David Fifita? At his best, we know he’s a weapon – but he is killing me to watch. 

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He managed to squeeze out 72 last week but I thought he was a bit lucky to score that many. He needs tries to justify his price tag and I’m not sure they are coming at the rate of last year. 

There were several sets of six where the Titans had the ball for a whole set inside the 20m and Fifita didn’t touch it.  A trade to Jeremiah Nanai could generate $300k and he looks to have a very Supercoach friendly game. 

Sure he won’t score a hat-trick every week, but with a reasonable draw and forecast price rise of $100k+ that is tempting.

FRF

Sometimes you get lucky with trades. Last week I bit the bullet and made one trade – Stefano Utoikamanu to Josh King. Fair to say that one worked out beautifully. King had a blinder for the Storm and poor Stefano had a syndesmosis injury.

Max King owners have no reason to panic. His minutes were down last week since he was carrying an injury, but he is going to be a very solid cash cow in my opinion. He’s played really well, has a great work rate and plenty of offloads. Hold!

HOK

Harry Grant is back – and with a game against the Bulldogs it’s no surprise to see him as the fifth most popular player traded in this week. My Bulldogs are defending superbly – but Grant’s game looks bombproof against any opposition to me.

Round 3 Captaincy Choices

Not surprisingly, Nicho Hynes dominated the captaincy amongst the leading teams last week. In particular, 40 of the top 100 captained Hynes – and a further 29 looped him. That’s a huge loop number in Round 3. 

Payne Haas was actually the most popular captain overall, followed by Nicho, Teddy, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Turbo. 

Good luck again to everyone in Round 3.