Final Word: Trades, tactics, tips, Round 4

• SPY TALK: Tackling the week’s big questions
• DATA ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best

Just when we thought it was going to be all low scoring, we see a round that was supposed to be wet and miserable and full of more low scoring encounters. 

Instead every game of the round goes over 40 points except for the Tigers v Warriors and Sea Eagles v Bulldogs. 

This in turn led to ten players scoring 100+ Supercoach points. Phenomenal really. A few key things were confirmed or materialised after Round 3 in my opinion: 

–       Nicho Hynes is a bonifide must-have gun of Supercoach. 

–       The NQ Cowboys, Newcastle Knights, Canterbury Bulldogs and Cronulla Sharks are substantially improved teams from 2021. 

–       Cash generation is going to be so important with so many fallen guns hitting their straps leading into State of Origin. Players like Tom Trbojevic, Cody Walker and Cam McInnes due to tough draws to start the season, slow starts from their team and/or return from injury are going to drop significantly in price and when they start to hit form (and they will) they will be great pick ups for Supercoaches. 

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Strategy 

A much improved score of 1,183 on the weekend saw me jump about 16,000 spots to 6,736^th place and more importantly my side is looking solid to me with not too many holes to plug and just under $360k in the bank to attack some opportunities. 

I followed through with my plan of trading in Payne Haas, Josh Curran and Peta Hiku who I see as strong VP’s (Value Propositions) for Angus Crichton, David Fifita and Kotoni Staggs. 

Crichton, Fifita and Staggs combined for an underwhelming 141 points and leaked $130,000 in price combined.  

Conversely even though Hiku, Curran and Haas only had solid to mediocre rounds by their standards they combined for 151 points (+10 net gain) and increased in price by $74,000 ($204,000 net gain). 

The true value of the trades will only materialise in the fullness of time but I’m happy with where it currently sits at the moment. 

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Probably against the trend of the masses again, I am seriously considering using my trade boost and three trades to make some big moves this week. 

The target trade-outs I am considering include E Bullemor, C Randall, L Ilias and J Tedesco. That’s right I am seriously considering Teddy out of my side. The trade-in targets include C Munster, T May, B. Brailey and N Hynes. 

It sounds crazy for an experienced Supercoach to even be considering trading out James Tedesco in Round-3 even after his shaky start. 

The Roosters on paper have a really kind upcoming draw that starts with the Cowboys who in his last two games v the Cowboys Teddy has scored 131 and 178 supercoach points. 

But I’ve seen enough in the opening three rounds of the NRL to tell me the Roosters are not where everyone thought they’d be and the NQ Cowboys are vastly improved on the expectation of where they would be. 

Most importantly, the Cowboys look like a team that won’t lay down and even if they are being beaten on the scoreboard or are up against it they appear as though they have developed some grit and resilience under the offseason with Todd Payten as coach and Dean Young as defensive coach. 

Yeh sure you could argue the Roosters showed glimpses against Manly, although the Sea Eagles game results haven’t exactly franked the form of that win. 

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Bottom line is I wouldn’t be selling Teddy if I could fit Nicho Hynes into my side without abandoning my strategy. 

I can’t part with my halves duo of Sexton and Schneider, although I feel an upgrade to Cleary and Hynes as halves is probably in the future if I can generate the cash and make the right moves. 

Teddy is a bit like Dave Fifita for me in that I’m not saying goodbye for the season, but maybe just see ya later! 

If I change my mind and decide I can live without Nicho Hynes then Chris Randall will make way for Blayke Brailey. 

I’m not fully committed to these, but this is what I’m considering at the moment for my three trades this weekend:

Trade-1         Lachlan Ilias to Cam Munster 

Trade-2        Hiku/Russell/B Smith/V Vailea to Taylan May  

Trade-3        James Tedesco to Nicho Hynes or C Randall to Blayke Brailey

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PODs & Super PODS 

Here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and Super PODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar. I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on: 

PODs (My top-5 ranked) 

1.    Thomas Dearden – Flourishing under the tutelage of Todd Payten and in partnership with Chad Townsend. I don’t want to get too carried away with the Cowboys as they have had a somewhat soft draw to start the season, but Dearden couldn’t have been more impressive with his running and kicking game. I’m getting Munster, but I’d be lying if I said I hadn’t seriously considered Dearden.  

2.   Blayke Brailey – Maybe Randell is going to be an earlier sell proposition than we all thought? If you feel that’s the case then Brailey looks like shooting well past his current price and settling in the mid to high $500k range. This week could be your last chance to jump on.  

3.   Reuben Cotter – Punched out 62 SC points in 59 minutes and it was all attack and attack base. Serious footballer this lad who’s had a wretched run with injuries, but Payten loves him and it’s not hard to see why. 

4.   Haumole Olakau’atu – Tough game in the wet last week, but still a great POD option with great attacking upside. 

5.   Nathan Cleary – Why 6.5% have him in their side already I couldn’t be sure cos that is a lot of dead money sitting on the pine! However if your opinion and narrative is that Cleary is going to dominate and improve on what he did last year than it could be beneficial to pull the trigger on him straight up. I’ll probably have a close look this week and next and see if I can’t get him at a reduced rate down the track.    

6.   Toby Sexton – Titans have points in them and so does Sexton. Sure you’ll get the bad (2^nd half v Raiders) to go with the good (1^st half v Raiders) but essentially it shouldn’t stop Sexton punching out 45-75s Supercoach scores. Value proposition!   

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Super PODs (My top-3 ranked)

1.     Brodie Jones – Talented footballer and with no Mitch Barnett (suspended six weeks) and no Lachlan Fitzgibbon (injury 8-10 weeks) he’s going to get a fair crack at the left 2RF position if he can remain healthy. Well and truly underpriced if he is set for 60+ mins on that edge. Attacking upside. 

2.    Daniel Suluka-Fifita – Absolutely monstering them in lower grades by all reports and comes into a side with two notable ageing middle forwards in TKO and JWH. Just above bargain basement price. Possible money maker!

3.    Braidon Burns – Has been sneaky good in a Bulldogs side that struggles to score points. Genuine Super POD but appears to have very consistent attacking output. 

CLOSE WATCH

This segment will list the players to keep a close watch on over the next month for their Supercoach prospects:

1.     Tom Starling – Love watching Starling play with his pure speed out of dummy half. Not sold on where he fits Supercoach wise, but does appear to be value for those keen on him. 

2.    Cam McInnes – Keen to monitor his minutes for the next three to four weeks in anticipation of a price plateau and then get him straight in!

3.    Tom Trbojevic – How far will the mighty Turbo fall? Manly only looked slightly better in their first win of the year albeit in atrocious weather conditions. 

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ROUND 4 MATCH-UPS 

Friday night the Titans take on a hapless Tigers, really the only side that has not given any skerrick of hope to it’s loyal supporters this year. The Titans are flaky but they are an attacking juggernaut when on. Shapes up well for Sexton, Brimson, Kelly, Fermor, Marzhew and Fifita. 

Is the Bulldogs defence really that much better in 2022? The acid test is on come Sunday afternoon in Melbourne. Appears a great match up for the likes of Papenhuyzen, Munster, Grant and Coates. 

Sunday night the Eels get a Dragons side that has been a bit unlucky with the sin-bins severely cruelling their chances in a few games this year already. I expect this one to have some points in it. Gutherson, Moses, D Brown, I Papali’i and Waqa Blake could be all set for big ones. 

CAPTAIN

Hard to go past Papi at home vs the Dogs. Equally Harry Grant and Cam Munster could be considerations if you want to pivot off the predictable. For those true believers and loyal David Fifita fans this is probably the best matchup you get all year against a downtrodden and depleted Wests Tigers side. And on Nicho Hynes, he must be a consideration, although the Knights have pretty stiff defence this year seemingly. 

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TOPSPORT BETs of the WEEK

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Round-3 Recap

Lock of the week got up with Warriors and Manly winning bringing home $43 in winnings. Still not a great start to the year, so need something this week. 

Round-4 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of TopSport) – Total Bets $63

Lock of the Week 

Titans, Storm & Eels win @ $2.09 x $28

To score a try Multi 

G Marzhew/X Coates/W Blake/R Garrick @ $11 (TopUp) x $10

D Fifita/H Olakauatu/J Curran @ $61 (TopUp) x $5

Multi

Titans -10.5/Storm -13.5/Parramatta win @ $5.20 (TopUp) x $10

First Tryscorer 

David Fifita (Titans) @ $15 x $10