Quantium stat analysis: Rd 4, true player ownership data

Analysing the top 100,000 AFL Supercoach teams after Round 3

G’day AFL supercoaches.  As outlined in last week’s article, the player ownership stats on the AFL Supercoach site are misleading.  To make better decisions, it is helpful to cut the ownership of each player by ranking zone.

I’m fortunate enough to run a data analytics business so I decided to put a few skills to work to calculate the actual ownership of each player. 

The tables below set out the proportion of teams in the top 500, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000, top 50,000 and top 100,000 that own each player by position.   

Just to recap, let’s look at the ownership of Jade Gresham and Tim English at the end of Round 3. According to the AFL Supercoach website, Gresham was owned by 16% of all teams and English was owned by 14% of teams.  When we cut the ownership by ranking, however, the stats look dramatically different.

Now we see for example, that 53% of the top 500 teams own English versus just 8% for Gresham.  So depending on where you are ranked, English may or may not be a POD versus those teams around you.

Without further ado, let’s get into this week’s data.

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DEF

Not surprisingly, there were some big movements in player ownership at DEF over the last week.

Lachie Whitfield was heavily sold and is now owned by 38% of the top 100,000 and 33% of the top 500 (versus 67% and 60% respectively last week).  That’s a huge sell down.

A third of Heath Chapman’s owners sold last week and half of Wayne Milera’s owners sold.

On the flipside, George Hewett’s ownership increased to 71% amongst the top 100,000 and 97% amongst the top 500 (versus 51% and 93% respectively last week).

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Jack Bowey is now owned by 26% of the top 100,000 and 45% of the top 500 – versus the 22% overall according to the AFL Supercoach site.

Similarly, Aaron Hall is now owned by 9% of the top 100,000 and 15% of the top 500 – versus the 8% overall according to the AFL Supercoach site.  No doubt his new owners would have been disappointed with his 70-point return – and associated price reduction.

Josh Sinn is owned by 13% of overall teams but just 2% of the top 500.

MID

Midfield sees some equally pronounced differences in ownership by ranking.

Stephen Coniglio is as popular as any player I’ve seen in Supercoach before. 9,965 of the top 10,000 teams own Coniglio!  999 of the top 1,000 teams own him!  This contrasts with the AFL Supercoach site stating that 75% of teams overall own him.

A number of players are skewed towards the leading teams, most notably Matt Rowell, Lachie Neale, George Hewett, Will Brodie, Patrick Cripps, Christian Petracca, Jye Caldwell, Josh Kelly, Tom Green and Andrew Brayshaw.

At the other end, Jack Steele is owned by 32% of the top 100,000 but only 10% of the top 500. 

Other players heavily skewed away from the leading teams include Jack Macrae, Jade Gresham, Josh Sinn, Tim Taranto, Nathan O’Driscoll, Jake Soligo, Charlie Parker and Zac Bailey.

Not surprisingly, Dustin Martin was heavily sold off last week. 

RUC

As per last week, the leading teams are heavily skewed towards owning Tim English, Jarrod Witts and Braydon Preuss.  English, in particular, is owned by 14% of teams overall but by 53% of the top 500 and 34% of the top 5,000.

Max Gawn was sold by 15% of teams and is now owned by just 21% of the top 1,000 teams versus 49% of the top 100,000.  Interestingly, Luke Jackson is owned by 19% of the top 100,000 but just 9% of the top 500 – despite being the fourth highest scoring ruck to date.

Rowan Marshall is owned by 10% of the top 100,000 but just 4% of the top 1,000 teams.

FWD

Tristan Xerri almost doubled in ownership in the past week.  Xerri is now owned by 32% of teams (17% last week) – yet we can see that 44% of the top 100,000 teams, 69% of the top 10,000 and 77% of the top 1,000 teams own him. 

Kaine Baldwin is owned by 18% of the top 100,000 but just 6% of the top 500.  He is the second most sold player this week.

Cam Rayner is owned by 9% of the top 100,000 teams but 0% of the top 1,000.

Round 3 Captaincy Choices

As mentioned last week, unfortunately, the most misleading stats of all on the Supercoach website are the captaincy stats.  Trust them at your peril. 

The table below sets out what percentage of teams in the top 100, top 500, top 1,000 etc captained each player last week.

Lachie Neale was a very popular captaincy choice, with 48% of the top 100,000 and 60% of the top 1,000 teams giving him the armband.

Patrick Cripps and Jack Macrae were each captained by 11% of the top 100,000.

20% of the top 100 teams employed the VC loop – versus just 5% of the top 100,000.

Good luck to everyone in Round 4.  Hopefully the Swans can hit back 🙂