Quantium data analysis: Rd 7, vital numbers to beat the best

Round 6 from a Supercoach perspective was all about Nathan Cleary. The SC gun is back and suddenly every team will be planning how to bring him into their side ASAP. 

Eight players tonned up including several with high levels of ownership. Unfortunately the only one I owned is David Fifita, so I copped a red arrow for the second consecutive week.

Let’s get into our analysis of the top 100,000 teams.

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Fullback

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback. 

Are we seeing a changing of the guard at FLB?  James Tedesco has been a set and forget mainstay in Supercoach teams for years, but that is not the case this year. 

Only 51% of the top 100 teams own him and with limited options and flexibility at FLB and HFB, that number is going to go down further this week as teams look to bring in Blake Taaffe and Nathan Cleary.  It feels weird selling Teddy, but you have to learn fast in this game!

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After six weeks, only 2 of the top 10 highest scoring players are FLBs – Ryan Papenhuyzen (1) and Nicho Hynes (2). Poor old Teddy is back in 36^th overall and is just the 7^th highest scoring FLB through six rounds.

Last week saw 6% of teams sell Teddy, 4% of teams sell Peta Hiku and 3% of teams sell Latrell Mitchell.  At the other end, 10% of teams went early on Blake Taaffe.  

CTW

There were some decent movements in player ownership by ranking at CTW this week.

15% of teams brought in Tolutau Koula, 5% brought in Taylan May (better late than never I guess), 5% brought in Joseph Manu and 2% brought in each of Kotoni Staggs and Campbell Graham.

At the other end each of Xavier Coates (-4%), Pete Hiku (-4%), Billy Smith (-3%), Talatau Amone (-2%), Cody Ramsey (-2%) Oliver Gildart (-2%) and Viliami Vailea (-2%) were traded out.

Joey Manu’s new owners must be particularly disappointed. After consecutive tonnes, Manu scored just 27 meaning just 5% of the top 100 teams own Manu in contrast to 20% of the top 100,000.  In contrast, after consecutive tonnes, Kotoni Staggs is now owned by 18 of the top 100 teams.

With scores of 18 and 15 in consecutive weeks, Xavier Coates is severely testing the patience of his owners. Coates is currently owned by 45% of teams but just 24% of the top 100 and 33% of the top 5,000.

Five-eighth

With a score of 96, Cameron Munster was once again the highest scoring five-eighth and is now owned by 68% of the top 100 teams (versus 32% overall).

My POD move of bringing in Cody Walker prior to the Dragons game has flopped badly – with scores of 10 and 44 against the Dragons and Bulldogs. It’s one thing watching your team get flogged – it’s another watching them get flogged and your SC POD not even score well in the process!

Halfback

So much for a projected $150k price drop in a fortnight. Last week was about one halfback – Nathan Cleary.

With a score of 151 (and most likely double that for anyone who owned him), Cleary outscored the next highest scoring halfback by 70 and could easily increase in price this week.

Put simply he is a must own – the challenge for most teams is how to achieve that.

2RF

After owning him last year, Siosifa Talakai was placed firmly on my “never to own again” list. 

I’d arguably have made him one of my five captains of that list. Talakai 2022, however, is proving to be a beast with soft hands, making a mockery of me. 

It’s painful to watch him not only post massive scores, but also know that the 44% of teams who own him in the top 10,000 are all picking up several hundred thousand dollars in cash at the same time. Well done. 

Talakai aside, 2RF has actually been reasonably kind to me. With a starting 2RF slate of Fifita, Murray and Taumalolo, each are performing very well and skewed towards leading teams. With Haumole Olakau’atu also performing well for owners and Isaiah Papali’i on fire, there is plenty of depth a 2RF.

The main issue most teams would be having would be in relation to cash cows. The likes of Tuilagi, Bullemor and Momoisea have all been disappointing meaning many teams have jumped on Brodie Jones and Reuben Cotter in the past fortnight in search of cash. 

FRF

Surprisingly, 5% of teams sold Payne Haas last week. Sure it was tough to see the big man sitting on the bench, but I would have thought most teams had bigger issues to solve. 

7% of teams sold Ethan Bullemor and 3% sold Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. 7% of teams brought in Papali’i, 6% of teams brought in Josh King and 2% brought in Jai Arrow.

HOK

71% of the top 1,000 teams now own Harry Grant. Whilst Damien Cook outscored Harry this week, Grant is just so consistent he is the clear number one hooker. Origin period aside, a Grant-Cook combo will be in the sights of many teams.

Round 6 Captaincy Choices

What a bizarre week for captaincy choices. If you’d have told me that I’d be captaining a 4-game rookie winger as captain in round 6 I would have laughed at you, but Taylan May it was for me. 

Without the option of a Mitchell Moses or Nathan Cleary, and keen to avoid Papenhuyzen, Hynes and Harry in their match up, I was left with little choice but to roll the dice.  It’s funny how similar all those players ended up scoring in the end.

Nathan Cleary and David Fifita delivered BIG TIME for their owners.

14% of the top 100 teams used the VC loop to great effect this week.  Of those 14, 10 had Damien Cook as VC, 2 had Nathan Cleary and 2 had David Fifita.

With many of the leading teams playing lesser ranked teams in Round 6, captaincy choice looms as a big decision for most teams once again.

Good luck again to everyone in Round 7.