Quantium stat analysis: Rd 6, true player ownership data

Analysing the top 100,000 AFL Supercoach teams after Round 5

G’day AFL supercoaches.  As outlined in last week’s article, the player ownership stats on the AFL Supercoach site are misleading.  To make better decisions, it is helpful to cut the ownership of each player by ranking zone.

I’m fortunate enough to run a data analytics business so I’ve put my skills to work to calculate the actual ownership of each player. 

The tables below set out the proportion of teams in the top 500, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000, top 50,000 and top 100,000 that own each player by position.   

Without further ado, let’s get into this week’s data.

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DEF

Last week, Nathan O’Driscoll was owned by just over 20% of teams. Now he is owned by 80% of the top 5,000 teams, 70% of the top 50,000 and 60% of the top 100,000 teams – versus 45% overall according to the Supercoach website. 

With a breakeven of -69 that ownership is only going to increase further this week.

Jack Sinclair is now owned by 6% of the top 100,000 and 16% of the top 500.

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Similarly, Sam Docherty is owned by 15% of the top 100,000 and 22% of the top 500.

At the other end, Mitchell Hinge is now owned by just 37% of the top 100,000 and 27% of the top 500 – down from 57% and 58% respectively last week.

Ownership of Joshua Gibcus is down around 10% across the board.

MID

30% of teams in the top 100,000 sold Patrick Cripps last week. 46% of the top 100,000 teams now own Cripps – but just 35% of the top 500.

Similarly, 7% of teams sold Dylan Stephens and 5% sold Matt Rowell.

A number of players are skewed towards the leading teams, most notably Lachie Neale, George Hewett, Jack Macrae, Will Brodie, Nathan O’Driscoll, Tom Green, Andrew Brayshaw, Jack Sinclair and Bailey Smith.

At the other end, Lachie Whitfield is owned by 35% of the top 100,000 but only 25% of the top 500. 

Other players heavily skewed away from the leading teams include Joshua Rachele, Dylan Stephens, Josh Ward, Patrick Cripps, Adam Treloar, Josh Sinn, Tim Taranto, Finn Maginness, Marcus Bontempelli, Charlie Parker and Zac Bailey.

RUC

As per previous weeks, the leading teams are heavily skewed towards owning Tim English, Jarrod Witts and Braydon Preuss.  Each are owned by roughly twice the proportion of teams within the top 500 versus the top 100,000.

Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn are both skewed towards lower ranked teams, although Gawn has closed the gap after his past two weeks.

FWD

Isaac Heeney is owned by 50% of the top 100,000 but 69% of the top 500. 

Charlie Curnow is owned by 7% of the top 100,000 teams but just 1% of the top 500.

Similarly, Corey Durdin is owned by 16% of the top 100,000 teams but just 11% of the top 500.

Round 5 Captaincy Choices

The table below sets out what percentage of teams in the top 100, top 500, top 1,000 etc captained each player last week.

Jack Macrae dominated captaincy selections amongst leading teams.  42% of the top 100,000 teams and over 60% of the top 20,000 teams captained Macrae last week.  This contrasts with the 28% overall figure on the Supercoach website.

10% of the top 100,000 but just 1% of the top 100 and 2% of the top 10,000 captained Lachie Neale.

Almost 17% of the top 100 teams employed the VC loop – the majority of whom vice captained Macrae.

Good luck to everyone in Round 6. 

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