Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
2020 NRL SuperCoach runner-up Tim Williams analyses every squad dropped on team list Tuesday.
NRLWe’re eight rounds into the NRL season, and our SuperCoach squads are firmly starting to take shape.
Squad depth is increasing, as is value, making sit v start decisions each week even harder, while we’re at the point of stacking our side with guns rather than grabbing every cheapie coming to the table.
Incredibly last week five of the top seven scorers were Melbourne Storm players, showing the need to bank at least a few of their contingent in your side.
It’s also time to put the Origin period firmly on your radar when considering trades, particularly when buying or selling cheapies who will be vital numbers come Round 13 and 17.
The Cooma Stallions are in a nice little patch of form, knocking out 1,283 points to move into 803rd overall.
We’ve still just used the one trade boost, and saved three trades, so I feel well placed a third of the way into the season and in striking distance of top spot.
Let’s take a look at the round 9 SuperCoach teams analysis, squads courtesy of ESPN.
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Embed from Getty ImagesThursday, 7.50pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney
Rabbitohs: 1. Blake Taaffe 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Josh Mansour 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Cameron Murray
Interchange: 14. Siliva Havili 15. Hame Sele 16. Liam Knight 17. Jaxson Paulo
Reserves: 18. Trent Peoples 19. Taane Milne 20. Richard Kennar 21. Peter Mamouzelos 22. Dean Hawkins 23. Josiah Karapani 24. Davvy Moale
Analysis: A vital late try saw Blake Taaffe score 66 points to ensure he wasn’t an underwhelming cheapie purchase a few weeks back.
With a breakeven of 11, there’s a fair bit more money to be made, however, I’ll be selling this week for Nicho Hynes.
He’s a hold for the majority of SuperCoaches, but that points potential over a bit of extra cash is a no brainer as I look to strengthen my line-up.
Isaiah Tass is pretty close to a must-have at $175k with a breakeven of -69 with an 84 in his rolling average.
I have a strong starting CTW, and reserves of Suaalii, Vailea and Koula on my bench so I really don’t want to sell any of them, big decisions to be made…
Cody Walker looks a quality buy this week with a breakeven of -8 following a 99 against Manly.
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He’s definitely a good purchase, however, he’s far from a must. He’s been a little lacklustre this season by his lofty standards, and was very fortunate to be taking on a 12-man Sea Eagles outfit for 72 minutes.
While there may be more money to be made down the track, Lachlan Ilias has fairly well peaked at $302k with a breakeven of 25.
You can wait and hope he scores well this week to generate another run of cash rises, but a move to Te Maire Martin looks a decent trade.
Despite Origin looming, Cam Murray is a great replacement for David Fifita.
Jai Arrow has been okay this season averaging 55 points, and while he’s a long way from being an urgent sell, I will be moving him on before Origin.
While his 48 base per game is outstanding, he can’t jag an attacking stat to save himself to push his scores into genuine keeper territory.
Embed from Getty ImagesBroncos: 1. Te Maire Martin 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Patrick Carrigan 11. TC Robati 12. Jordan Riki 13. Kobe Hetherington
Interchange: 14. Cory Paix 15. Rhys Kennedy 16. Thomas Flegler 17. Keenan Palasia
Reserves: 18. Brenko Lee 19. Jordan Pereira 20. Ryan James 21. Ezra Mam 22. Ethan Quai-Ward 23. Logan Bayliss-Brow 24. Jake Turpin
Analysis: Payne Haas is out in a huge blow for owners. With Origin looming, some may be tempted to sell.
However, front-row stocks aren’t great, and he’s clearly second pick to Isaiah Papali’i, so I think I’d just stick strong for the season.
Provided he’s healthy, Brisbane aren’t really in a position to reduce his minutes too significantly over Origin, so I wouldn’t be too concerned.
Kotoni Staggs put in a masterful performance on Siosifa Talakai and remains a hold. He’ll have the odd low weeks, like most CTWs, but the highs are worth waiting around for. Even more so with Brisbane showing some decent form.
Te Maire Martin is $205k with a breakeven of -22, with dual 5/8-FLB positioning.
While job security is an issue, I think he’s a class act and will hold onto the fullback role, or shift to 5/8 when Tesi Niu returns.
Embed from Getty ImagesFriday, 6pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra
Raiders: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Nick Cotric 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Matt Frawley 7. Brad Schneider 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Adam Elliott 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Ryan Sutton
Interchange: 14. Tom Starling 15. Corey Harawira-Naera 16. Sebastian Kris 17. Corey Horsburgh
Reserves: 18. Harry Rushton 19. Emre Guler 20. Xavier Savage 21. Trey Mooney 22. Sam Williams 23. James Schiller 24. Peter Hola
Analysis: Not too much relevance at my poor old Raiders with Brad Schneider certainly a sell for anyone who still owns.
He has a breakeven of 54 and should be turned into an elite halfback.
Ricky Stuart has clearly shown his desire for Tommy Starling to play a 60-65 minute role off the bench.
He can still score well in that time, but he’s far from a keeper. I would suggest as a sell, but I’d just lock him in for Round 13 which Canberra play, then sell afterwards.
Embed from Getty ImagesBulldogs: 1. Matt Dufty 2. Brent Naden 3. Aaron Schoupp 4. Jake Averillo 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Luke Thompson 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Corey Waddell 12. Tevita Pangai Junior 13. Josh Jackson
Interchange: 14. Bailey Biondi-Odo 15. Joe Stimson 16. Max King 17. Ava Seumanufagai
Reserves: 19. Josh Cook 20. Jackson Topine 21. Brandon Wakeham 22. Reece Hoffman 23. Jayden Okunbor 24. Paul Alamoti 25. Chris Patolo
Analysis: Despite an inspiring win over the Roosters, the Bulldogs still lack much SuperCoach relevance.
Even more so now with Max King likely peaking at $389k, with a breakeven of 36.
The starting role in the absence of Josh Jackson Didn’t impact minutes too significantly.
While missing the Roosters win, Jackson was on fire with a three round average of 65 points per game, almost entirely in base.
Despite the strong form, he doesn’t have the attacking upside to warrant buying at over $500k.
TPJ remains a decent POD buy at FRF-2RF, but he isn’t exactly setting the world alight with a solid 60 point average.
With his injury/suspension history, I’d want to see greater output to warrant investing.
Embed from Getty ImagesFriday, 7.55pm, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith
Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Charlie Staines 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Taylan May 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Matt Eisenhuth 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Soni Luke 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon
Reserves: 18. Robert Jennings 19. Chris Smith 20. J’maine Hopgood 21. Sean O’Sullivan 22. Moses Leota 23. Mitch Kenny 24. Brian To’o
Analysis: Brian To’o returns on the extended bench, will he play, and will Taylan May retain his spot over Charlie Staines?
May and Tago are both certain holds until at least Round 13, provided May plays over Staines, where they’ll play the first major bye round.
If you don’t own Nathan Cleary, just find a way already.
Liam Martin has been rock solid averaging 59 points and making $106k. He’s done his job and can be moved on anytime before Round 13 as he’ll likely play Origin, but there’s no urgency, and we can potentially even wait until then just in case he does miss out.
Embed from Getty ImagesEels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Hayze Perham 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown
Interchange: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Bryce Cartwright
Reserves: 18. Wiremu Greig 19. Jakob Arthur 20. Mitch Rein 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Samuel Loizou 23. Elie El Zakhem 24. Sean Russell
Analysis: Despite the controversial move to centre, Dylan Brown managed to score well in the past two weeks.
He hasn’t scored under 56 since Round 1!
While he can, and probably will, continue to score well, I think with upcoming games against the Panthers, Roosters, Sea Eagles and Raiders followed by the bye, I’d be happy to cash him in for Cody Walker (as I did last week), or upgrade to Cam Munster.
Ditto Mitch Moses for anyone who still owns following his 8 point stinker against the Cowboys which has left him with a breakeven of 130.
For all the same reasons as above, Will Penisini can be cashed in at $462k having done an outstanding job as both cash cow and consistent scorer for owners.
With a breakeven of 32 it can wait, but a move to one of the cheapie CTWs available this week looks a savy move.
Despite his second lowest score of the season with 59 (lowest 58), Isaiah Papali’i will be a top replacement option for David Fifita.
With coverage of the second major bye round, and no Origin to worry about, he’s a great purchase, but we knew that a long time ago.
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday, 3pm, 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Christian Tuipulotu 3. Ben Trbojevic 4. Tolutau Koula 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Sean Keppie 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Martin Taupau 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Josh Schuster 13. Jake Trbojevic
Interchange: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Ethan Bullemor 16. Josh Aloiai 17. Toafofoa Sipley
Bench: 18. Kurt De Luis 19. Morgan Harper 20. Kaeo Weekes 21. James Roumanos 22. Viliami Fifita 23. Jamie Humphreys 24. Jacob Sykes
Analysis: Tommy Turbo hopefully returns this week and that enhances the credentials of all Manly’s SuperCoach contingent.
While the Tigers match up is extremely enticing, I won’t consider Turbo at $970k with a breakeven of 162.
Wait a week, then decide whether or not we want him before Origin 1. A low score isn’t a concern, or even really a big price drop, I just want to see his body play 80 before jumping on.
Tolutau Koula, breakeven 30, can wait till next week with a host of other strong buy options this week.
Christian Tuipulotu has snuck under the radar to rise to $292k. He now has a breakeven of -44 and has an 84 in his three round average.
Injuries to Brad Parker and Jason Saab have cemented his job security.
He looks a great buy, especially with Turbo back. However, with points becoming more of a priority and Tass available at $175k I’d lean that way.
Do consider though that Tuipulotu will play round 13 which is a fairly significant bonus.
Josh Schuster was outstanding on return from injury in 69 minutes and will be a huge watch in coming weeks.
Embed from Getty ImagesTigers: 1. Starford To’a 2. Asu Kepaoa 3. Oliver Gildart 4. Luke Garner 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jackson Hastings 8. James Tamou 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Zane Musgrove 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Alex Seyfarth 13. Joe Ofahengaue
Interchange: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Alex Twal 16. Thomas Mikaele 17. Stefano Utoikamanu
Reserves: 18. Jacob Liddle 19. Jock Madden 20. Junior Tupou 21. Tukimihia Simpkins 22. Austin Dias 23. Junior Pauga 24. Fonua Pole
Analysis: Despite the vastly improved form, I still don’t have much interest at the Tigers outside of Kelma Tuilagi who is starting to generate some cash.
For very patient owners, he’s risen almost $70k, and with a breakeven of 12 there should be more rises to come.
David Nofoaluma hasn’t been named this week, but is worth noting as we plan our trades.
He has been a big benefactor of the improved form, returning to some of his past SuperCoach prowess with a three round average of 86 points! He scored 67 on the weekend with 37 in base which is a joy to see.
However, it’s the first time he’s eclipsed 30 in base this season, so I’m still wary. For context, he’d be 30+ most games in previous years.
He’s $560k with a breakeven of 14 and is definitely worth a look, however my approach of attacking CTWs in the better attacking teams rules him out for the Stallions for the time being.
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday, 5.30pm, BB Print Stadium, Mackay
Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Paul Momirovski 4. Joseph Manu 5. Joseph Suaalii 6. Sam Walker 7. Luke Keary 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Sam Verrills 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victor Radley
Interchange: 14. Drew Hutchison 15. Fletcher Baker 16. Nat Butcher 17. Siosiua Taukeiaho
Bench: 18. Lachlan Lam 19. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 20. Ben Marschke 21. Naufahu Whyte 22. Kevin Naiqama 23. Billy Smith 24. Renouf Atoni
Analysis: Despite some very ordinary recent form for the Roosters, they still maintain plenty of SuperCoach relevance.
James Tedesco has rewarded patient owners the past fortnight with back-to-back scores of 94 and 76.
He’s had a ridiculous 42 and 41 in base in those games, with 22 and 23 runs in those clashes.
On top of that, he’s busted 20 tackles in the past two weeks! Much better mate…
Angus Crichton had his best game of the season with 80 points, including a massive 60 in base.
He’s played three consecutive 80 minute matches and is still very cheap at $514k based on his pedigree.
But will the minutes continue, and will he get rests over Origin? While he may not sit matches, bench moves seem likely.
Not for me, but he could be a proven gun at a steal of a price.
Joseph Suaalii made owners $31k last week and has a breakeven of -6. While I think there’s probably better buys, that bye coverage maintains his appeal.
I probably wouldn’t jump on with better options available, but I don’t begrudge anyone at all who wants to grab.
Joey Manu has three tonnes and two 27s in his past five games. He’s absolutely a hold until Round 13, and probably the entire season.
Billy Smith has been named on the extended bench.
Embed from Getty ImagesTitans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Greg Marzhew 3. Brian Kelly 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Corey Thompson 6. Will Smith 7. Toby Sexton 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Erin Clark 10. Isaac Liu 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Interchange: 14. Tanah Boyd 15. Sam Lisone 16. Herman Ese’ese 17. Sam McIntyre
Reserves: 18. Jamayne Isaako 19. Paul Turner 20. Esan Marsters 21. Phillip Sami 22. Jayden Campbell 23. Sosefo Fifita 24. Jaimin Jolliffe
Analysis: Back-to-back scores of 42 and 25, along with a month on the sideline, means David Fifita is a sell.
If someone could check on Clementine Cassidy for me it’d be appreciated…
At least he holds good value at $709k, and he was going to be impacted by Origin anyway, so it’s not all doom and gloom.
Despite the Round 13 coverage, I’m not overly interested in anyone at the Titans until they show some better form.
Credit when due though, they did show up against the Panthers, but that doesn’t always translate to SuperCoach points.
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday, 7.35pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Reuben Cotter 11. Tom Gilbert 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Jason Taumalolo
Interchange: 14. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 15. Heilum Luki 16. Coen Hess 17. Griffin Neame
Reserves: 18. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 19. Jake Granville 20. Kane Bradley 21. Ben Condon 22. Emry Pere 23. Taniela Sadrugu 24. Brendan Elliot
Analysis: Crikey, who saw this Cowboys blitz coming? All of a sudden they’re SuperCoach relevant with both defensive and attacking quality.
We always knew Scotty Drinkwater was a SuperCoach weapon, but job security and the occasional utility bench role always made him hard to invest in.
Well, his job security is currently pretty good and he’s averaging 88 points across four games this season.
With a breakeven of -20, it’s not necessarily now or never, but you probably won’t want to pay in excess of $700k for him if he goes big again.
He offers Round 13 coverage with is a huge tick in his favour.
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Upcoming games against the Knights and Tigers look great, before he faces the Panthers and Storm.
I’m avoiding as I like a Cody Walker (proven, price point) and Cam Munster (freak) 5/8 combo, along with Te Maire Martin looking a decent prospect at 5/8 this week.
However, he has done nothing wrong this season to suggest he isn’t worth buying, just be aware he can punch out some very low scores.
Reuben Cotter played the full 80 minutes against the Eels, scoring 80 points with 75 in base, that’s up there with the biggest I’ve seen.
At $482k he’s a decent buy due to that bye coverage and keeper potential if the minutes remain, but with a breakeven of 32 I don’t mind waiting another week to see how his role pans out.
Jason Taumalolo continues to deliver, now averaging 65 points for the season, and 72 in the past three rounds. That dual FRF-2RF positioning makes him so much more valuable too.
Embed from Getty ImagesKnights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Edrick Lee 3. Enari Tuala 4. Bradman Best 5. Dominic Young 6. Tex Hoy 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. David Klemmer 9. Chris Randall 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Leo Thompson
Interchange: 14. Jack Johns 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Mathew Croker 17. Pasami Saulo
Reserves: 18. Simi Sasagi 19. Krystian Mapapalangi 20. Jaron Purcell 21. Brayden Musgrove 22. Dylan Phythian 23. Kobe Rugless 24. Ben Talty
Analysis: It’s hard to have much interest in any Knights players due to their form and lack of early bye coverage.
David Klemmer is generating some interest with a three round average of 73, with base stats of old in that time.
Chris Randall has likely peaked at $409k and a breakeven of 50. However, with the 30 from two weeks back about to drop out of his rolling average he’s not an urgent sell, but he must be moved on before Round 13.
Embed from Getty ImagesSunday, 2pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne
Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Nick Meaney 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Harry Grant 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenny Bromwich 13. Josh King
Interchange: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Tyran Wishart 16. Trent Loiero 17. Jordan Grant
Bench: 18. Chris Lewis 19. Bronson Garlick 20. Jayden Nikorima 21. Cooper Johns 22. Tom Eisenhuth 23. Dean Ieremia 24. Alec MacDonald
Analysis: Apologies for the lazy Storm analysis, but there’s not enough hours in the day to cover them properly following 120 points in two weeks.
Do note they won’t play Round 13.
So….
Papenhuyzen = Must-have, obviously.
Coates = Sizzling, potential sell at $700k odd prior to Round 13 bye? Monitor…
Munster = Freak, Cody still arguably still a better buy at price point, but can also choose to just lock in the likely top scoring 5/8 for the season.
Grant = Must-have, obviously.
Josh King = 212m v Knights, 63 minutes, legend. Make a plan to sell anytime between now and Round 13.
Brandon Smith = Sub 51 minutes four of past five weeks, no interest now. Round 14 over Origin when likely playing bigger time for Grant, bottomed out, huge play.
Embed from Getty ImagesDragons: 1. Moses Mbye 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Jack Bird 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Andrew McCullough 10. George Burgess 11. Tariq Sims 12. Josh Mcguire 13. Jack de Belin
Interchange: 14. Talatau Amone 15. Blake Lawrie 16. Aaron Woods 17. Tyrell Fuimaono
Reserves: 18. Jayden Sullivan 19. Cody Ramsey 20. Jack Gosiewski 21. Tyrell Sloan 22. Josh Kerr 23. Jackson Ford 24. Tautau Moga
Analysis: Three on the trot for the Red V, it’s great to see, but another club I don’t have SuperCoach interest in.
Zac Lomax remains the sole SC focus and is a fair buy despite producing his first sub 50 score of the season against the Tigers. No Round 13 coverage is a blow.
Embed from Getty ImagesSunday, 4.05pm, PointsBet Stadium, Sydney
Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Aiden Tolman 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Dale Finucane
Interchange: 14. Jack Williams 15. Cameron McInnes 16. Wade Graham 17. Royce Hunt
Reserves: 18. Braydon Trindall 19. Andrew Fifita 20. Luke Metcalf 21. Mawene Hiroti 22. Connor Tracey 23. Matt Ikuvalu 24. Franklin Pele
Analysis: Nicho Hynes will FINALLY be welcomed into the Cooma Stallions line-up in Round 9.
The last three weeks in particular were a terrifying watch, but with a three round average of just 67 I consider myself to have escaped as a very lucky non-owner.
Cronulla have a very soft draw over the next few months and will bounce back from that Broncos defeat.
With Dale Finucane back, the minutes of Cam McIness will be a massive watch. If he plays 70+ he could be a great upgrade from Chris Randall.
Let’s see if he starts come game day which is possible.
The entire backline remain genuine options with the upcoming run of games.
Embed from Getty ImagesWarriors: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Viliami Vailea 4. Rocco Berry 5. Adam Pompey 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Matt Lodge 11. Euan Aitken 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Jazz Tevaga
Interchange: 14. Jack Murchie 15. Ben Murdoch-Masila 16. Bunty Afoa 17. Aaron Pene
Reserves: 18. Bayley Sironen 20. Taniela Otukolo 21. Edward Kosi 22. Junior Ratuva 23. Pride Petterson-Robati 24. Jayden Corrigan 25. Jackson Frei
Analysis: After a string of solid scores, Euan Aitken finally repaid faith of owners with a big outing with a tonne against the Raiders.
He’s a hold until Round 13 where the Warriors play the first bye. I suspect he’ll be an upgrade to a genuine gun after that, but he could just be one of those players that plugs away in your side all season with invaluable dual CTW-2RF status.
Tohu Harris is another to keep a close on ahead of Round 13.
With reduced minutes when he returns, he could bottom out beautifully in time for the first bye round.
Addin Fonua-Blake owners have held this long, you may as well stick strong for bye coverage than sell in Round 14.
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Hey fellas,
Am I crazy for considering Adam Elliott given his new role (20min at hooker then 35-40 in the middle)?
I have no idea who to trade fifita to so could end up holding. I’m downgrading hammer and illias to tass and tmm this week and bringing in schuster and ola/lolo next week. not keen on murray with origin looming