Final Word: Trades, tactics, tips, Round 11

Magic Round saw some low scoring across the board for Supercoaches with a few letdowns and a few surprises. 

I have scoured every player in Supercoach and have narrowed down my Watchlist to just 62. 

Barring some player coming up out of nowhere to enter calculations, I believe my final 25 will be made up from these 62 players. 

It’s actually a worthwhile exercise I would recommend to Supercoaches as it helps you to take into consideration all players and opens your eyes to a few that might otherwise slip through the cracks.  

Round 11 is upon us and it feels like we are in a bit of a holding pattern for two weeks until the Rd-13 bye round. 

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If you haven’t already you should be looking to have at least 9-10 fit bye players after Round 12 with trades in hand and a boost.

I think the number to aim at having for the bye round in Round-13 is 13-14 players. 

If you are a bit behind where you want to be and are looking to make up significant ground overall you could be aggressive and try to field 16 or 17.

Again if you are going to utilise this tactic then hopefully you’ve saved plenty of trades and boosts early on in the season. 

Currently I have 11 players in my squad that could play the Round 13 bye round. 

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It is probably more realistically 9 or 10 because I have Reuben Cotter and he is looking increasingly more likely to play State of Origin, and I also have held Josh Curran as a POD play in the hope he returns from injury in Round 13. 

Viliame Vailea is testing my patience with his low scoring and his spot in the Warriors side may come under scrutiny also, so he is probably the only one of those Round-13 bye players I may look to sell. 

Those who bought Tommy Turbo copped themselves a low score and more troubling was he looked injured and must be in serious doubt to play this week. 

I thought Ben Trbojevic looked pretty good and was unlucky to pick up an AC joint injury. 

Surely Koula gets a crack at fullback? I hope so as he’s such an exciting ball runner, but to be fair his defence is that good they probably don’t want to move him out of the front line. 

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Strategy 

I took my off the ball with my reserves and it cost me badly as has been the case the last few rounds. 

I’ve had some competing priorities the last month that have affected my starts and sits and I feel if I can tune that up I will start to move up the rankings.

A score of 1,005 saw me drop 73 rankings to 1,211^th place overall. 

I’m still well and truly close enough if good enough. 600 points off the lead is not insurmountable with plenty of rounds left and plenty of twists and turns to take place in Supercoach yet!

I pulled the trigger on a late trade to Cam McInnes who was solid with 57, but I was probably a bit dirty I didn’t get my other target in Ryan Matterson after he crashed over for his second try in as many weeks. 

Matterson is in supreme form and I am considering him this week as a trade target also. 

Jai Arrow was better and will get a reprieve at least until Origin starts. 

There are some decent targets this week but not as many quality ones playing the bye. 

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PODs & Super PODS 

Here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and Super PODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar. 

I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on: 

PODs (My top-3 ranked) 

1.    David Klemmer – 76,72,70 in the last three weeks. Those are elite FRF keeper numbers. There’s troops to come back for the Knights, but surely the way Klemmer is playing he keeps his minutes.  

2.   Adam Reynolds – Fallen asleep a bit on this one. Reynolds has been ultra consistent this year and while he doesn’t appear to have a huge 120+ ceiling, he does have a floor of 50-55 which is impressive.   

3.   Tom Deardon – Has had a great season and the Cowboys are on fire. Melbourne with their current outs is not as hard a match up as it looks and then they get the reigning premiers and then the Titans. 

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Super PODs (Top-5) 

1.     Ryan Matterson – I should’ve listened to my own advice and grabbed Matto last week. Instead I went for Cam McInnes. I probably will make some moves to get him this week. He could well play Origin though and doesn’t play Round-13 

2.    Jazz Tevaga – A few players returning might put some doubt over this selection, however NZ coach Nathan Brown has been ultra impressd with Tevaga. His last two scores have been 58 and 85. Serious consideration. 

3.    Murray Taulagi – Being touted for State of Origin, but I can’t see how he would make it. I feel the Hammer could possibly be a better chance of the left wing spot or even Selwyn Cobbo. BE of -11 and Cowboys are red hot at the moment. Tough draw upcoming though. 

4.    Reece Walsh – Has been outstanding for the Warriors this year even in some badly beaten games. As soft as the draw probably gets for a side like the Warriors and their next two are day games which suits Walsh’s attacking game. 

5.    Reece Robson – Posting decent numbers and plays Rd-13 

CLOSE WATCH

This segment will list the players to keep a close watch on over the next month for their Supercoach prospects:

1.     Tohu Harris – 37 Supercoach points in 30mins. Licking my lips for the return of Harris to 80 minutes. Could be a super pick up for Rd-13.  

2.    Anthony Milford – I’m interested to see if Milf can unlock the Knights attack bringing himself and Ponga into Supercoach relevance for the run home. 

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ROUND 11 MATCH-UPS 

Parramatta Eels match up against Manly Friday night and appear to have a definite edge in the forwards and their physicality. Shaun Lane (running at DCE), Pensini, I.Pap, Dylan Brown and Mitchell Moses are solid plays. 

The Dragons v Warriors is a decent match up for both teams particularly being a day game. Expect Zac Lomax to hit back from a down game along with Moses Suli and Ben Hunt. For the Warriors, Marcelo Montoya, Reece Walsh and the returning Euan Aitken are all solid plays. 

Surely the Sharks make the necessary adjustments and get back on track against the Titans at the Gold Coast. Talakai is due for a big game and the Titans edges aren’t exactly defensively sound. Nicho Hynes moving to fullback saw him running way to laterally but I’m sure the Sharks are smart enough to adjust. They really need to use straight runners and penetrate in the middle. 

Finucane is a big loss and so is Braden Hamlin-Uele for that punch and drawing players into the middle. Royce Hunt must play more minutes and they need to find some finesse in the forwards. Cam McInnes could benefit from more minutes possibly with Finucane out. 

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CAPTAIN

The more favourable options definitely come up later in the round with Nathan Cleary and Nicho Hynes sure to be popularand probably the safest options. 

If you wanted to take a risk then I.Pap, Lomax and even Reece Walsh if you have them could be in for high scores. 

Most likely I’ll play a straight bat to this one and work around Cleary and Hynes. 

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TOPSPORT BETs of the WEEK

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Round-10 Recap

The lock of the week went down again with all three legs losing. Shocking! Been a very tough start to the season for the Bets of the Week segment but hopefully we can turn it around over the next few weeks.   

Round-11 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of TopSport) – Total Bets $75

Lock of the Week 

Knights +7.5/Eels win/Sharks win @ $3.90 (TopUp) x $50

To score a try Multi’s 

Reece Walsh/Dylan Brown/K Ponga @ $34 (TopUp) x $10

Roughie Multi

Knights/Warriors/Raiders @ $21 (TopUp) x $15