Squad Breakdown: Analysing the Round 12 teams

We’re drawing ever so close to the all-important first bye round that begins in two weeks’ time.

Hopefully everyone’s bye-planning has them well placed heading into Round 13.

It’s a tough proposition, with very few guns playing, making it a difficult decision to go hard or maintain a stronger squad whilst running with fewer numbers.

The way I see it, anywhere from say 12-15 players will be fine, anything more may be going a little too hard.

At this stage I’ll have 14/15, pending Jason Taumalolo’s availability with injury.

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The Cooma Stallions have had a disappointing few rounds, scoring just 983 points last week to drop to 2,300 overall.

Certainly a fall from a few weeks back, but I have managed to hold onto four boosts and set myself up well for the bye, so hopefully some green arrows are on the horizon.

As per recent write ups, planning for the bye/Origin period should be in full swing and will become a staple of this article in coming months.

Head-to-head focused players need not worry too much about the bye period; just plan to get the best 17 you can as quick as possible, while saving trades for finals time in the back end of the season.

Let’s take a look at the Round 12 Indigenous Round squads, with squad lists courtesy of ESPN.

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STORM v SEA EAGLES

Thursday, 7.50pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Dean Ieremia 3. Marion Seve 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Harry Grant 10. Tui Kamikamica 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenny Bromwich 13. Josh King

Bench: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Tyran Wishart 16. Trent Loiero 17. Alec MacDonald

Reserves: 18. Chris Lewis 19. Jayden Nikorima 20. Jordan Grant 21. Tom Eisenhuth 22. William Warbrick 23. Bronson Garlick 24. Jack Howarth

Analysis: I’ve seen a few questions around from people who still own Ryan Papenhuyzen, I believe he’s due back Round 14, so if you’ve held this long I’d probably just stick strong pending further injury news.

Not a heap to add to the Storm despite two poor outings, with the likes of Harry Grant and Cam Munster both holds, and Xavier Coates a sell with a likely Origin call-up looming + stacks of cash to be dropped.

I’d also look to move Josh King on prior to Round 13 having done an excellent job to date.

Melbourne don’t play Round 13.

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Sea Eagles: 1. Reuben Garrick 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Morgan Harper 4. Tolutau Koula 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Toafofoa Sipley 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Andrew Davey 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Josh Schuster 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Sean Keppie

Reserves: 18. Kurt De Luis 19. Jason Saab 20. Kaeo Weekes 21. Viliami Fifita 22. Alec Tuitavake 23. Jamie Humphreys 24. Jacob Sykes

Analysis: The likely season-ending injury to Tom Trbojevic changes the SuperCoach credentials of this entire side that do play Round 13.

Basically it reduces the scoring potential of every backline player substantially, including Koula, Tuipulotu and Garrick.

All remain hold for Rounds 13, with the first two being likely sells come Round 14.

Garrick scored a ton against Parramatta to hold value heading into the first bye round, and will shift to fullback in Turbo’s absence.

He’s a guy I’m keen on next week after this tough match, likely to play as a fifth CTW – based on match up – each round for the rest of the season.

That being said, with Turbo out, he moves from a near must-have to a decent option only. Foregoing him is fine, and with a breakeven of 99 and a Storm match-up looming, I’ll be waiting till next week if investing.

Haumole Olakau’atu has had a disappointing few weeks – and this week will be another slog -, but I do think he’s a season-long keeper in a relatively weak 2RF position this season.

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PANTHERS v COWBOYS

Friday, 6pm, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith

Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Taylan May 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Mitch Kenny 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon

Reserves: 18. Robert Jennings 19. Chris Smith 20. J’maine Hopgood 21. Sean O’Sullivan 22. Matt Eisenhuth 23. Soni Luke 24. Charlie Staines

Analysis: With Round 13 coverage, Penrith remain very relevant, although they are going to lose a host of SuperCoach guns to Origin which doesn’t help.

With a three round average of 71PPG, Viliame Kikau remains a nice pick up for the first bye round.

He’s averaging a huge 74 minutes per game this season which should continue with the likes of Isaah Yeo and Liam Martin to take part in the Origin series.

The additional minutes don’t exactly lift his rubbish 32 base per game, but it is more time for him to produce attacking stats which we all certainly know he’s capable of.

Jarome Luai is a little tempting as a super POD at just 6% ownership off the back of scores of 102 and 86 against heavyweights Melbourne and the Roosters, but the reading elsewhere is fairly bleak.

In the five rounds prior to that he had four scores under 35 and a top of 53. With a breakeven of -27 you’d probably have to go this week, and the tough Cowboys match up isn’t ideal. Not for me, but worth a look.

While the move to the right edge hasn’t been ideal, Brian To’o could be my first player purchased in Round 14 post Origin at around $550k. Bargain!

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Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Reuben Cotter 11. Tom Gilbert 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Coen Hess

Bench: 14. Jake Granville 15. Heilum Luki 16. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 17. Griffin Neame

Reserves: 18. Taniela Sadrugu 19. Ben Hampton 20. Ben Condon 21. Connelly Lemuelu 22. Riley Price 23. Brendan Elliot 24. Brendan Frei

Analysis: The Cowboys continue to blast their way into premiership contention with a big win over Melbourne, but Penrith at home will be the real test of their credentials.

They’ve become extremely SuperCoach relevant as such, and with up to four trades available next week they’ll be hot property.

I’ll avoid this week due to the Penrith match up, then pounce next week for the Round 13 coverage, followed by a nice draw going forward.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is hot on my radar at just $283k with a breakeven of 56. With Kyle Feldt out long-term he’s a serious option for next week having been named on the wing, but the tough match up and the fact that he’s an outside chance for Origin make him a definite wait.

The Feldt injury isn’t ideal for Reece Robson who is popular this week, as Jake Granville returns to the bench which very well may see Robson return to a 60 minute role.

I think he’s only a buy if playing 70+ minutes, particularly now at $566k, so I’m going to wait a week and assess his time with Granville back.

With the exceptional form he’s been in, they may find another way to inject Granville while maintaining Robson’s minutes.

Reuben Cotter has played back-to-back minutes of just 57 and 63 the past fortnight which is very concerning considering Origin selection is possibly looming, then the Cowboys play the Friday after Origin one and three, so fewer minutes are likely.

He’s still a solid bye in that game time, but if he does get the Origin call up I’ll be avoiding. If he misses, which is a decent chance, I’ll lock him in next round.

With a breakeven of 114, Scott Drinkwater should be priced at around $600k next week and will be yet another Cowboys option with games against the Titans, Dragons and Sea Eagles.

Jason Taumalolo is a HOLD until at least until next week to see if named which is expected.

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BRONCOS v TITANS

Friday, 7.55pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Broncos: 1. Te Maire Martin 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Ezra Mam 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan

Bench: 14. Cory Paix 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Thomas Flegler 17. Keenan Palasia

Reserves: 18. Brenko Lee 19. TC Robati 20. Rhys Kennedy 21. Delouise Hoeter 22. Jordan Pereira 23. Xavier Willison 24. David Mead

Analysis: Selwyn Cobbo is on an absolute tear with a 3RA of 98 points. What a turnaround for a bloke who in eight games prior had one score over 50, and four under 27!

While both he and the Broncos are clearly improving with every game, it’s that ability to go very low that has me wary of investing $574k for a non-Round 13 player.

With a breakeven of -17 there’s more money to come, but I’ll be avoiding, Brisbane face the Titans this week, followed by a bye, then the rejuvenated Raiders, Storm and Cowboys.

Kotoni Staggs continued his rollercoaster season with 82 against the Knights, predicting his score each week is near impossible.

He remains a semi reluctant hold for me for the season, but this can change any week with him, while an Origin call up next week would also impact.

Te Maire Martin knocked out 47 points to hopefully generate a few more price rises.

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Titans: 1. Jayden Campbell 2. Corey Thompson 3. Brian Kelly 4. Esan Marsters 5. Jamayne Isaako 6. AJ Brimson 7. Toby Sexton 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Erin Clark 10. Jarrod Wallace 11. Isaac Liu 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui

Bench: 14. Tanah Boyd 15. Jaimin Jolliffe 16. Sam McIntyre 17. Sam Lisone

Reserves: 18. Paul Turner 19. Herman Ese’ese 20. Greg Marzhew 21. Aaron Booth 22. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 23. David Fifita 24. Patrick Herbert

Analysis: Despite offering Round 13 coverage, I can’t entertain any Titans players at the moment barring a huge reversal in form this week.

David Fifita has been named on the extended bench.

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WARRIORS v KNIGHTS

Saturday, 3pm, Moreton Daily Stadium, Redcliffe

Warriors: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Viliami Vailea 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Ben Murdoch-Masila 9. Freddy Lussick 10. Jazz Tevaga 11. Euan Aitken 12. Tohu Harris 13. Jack Murchie

Bench: 14. Taniela Otukolo 15. Aaron Pene 16. Bunty Afoa 17. Eliesa Katoa

Reserves: 18. Jesse Arthars 20. Rocco Berry 21. Dunamis Lui 22. Daejarn Asi 23. Pride Petterson-Robati 24. Ronald Volkman 25. Jackson Frei

Analysis: Tohu Harris played 70 minutes for 56 points in his second game back from injury, amassing an outstanding 54 in base.

He’s $601k with a breakeven of 109 and will be an excellent pick up for the Warriors Round 13 bye coverage and well beyond.

Viliame Vailea need a pair of tries to record his first score over 35 this season, which means patient owners will at least get some cash out of him.

I’m still very nervous he won’t be a part of the side next week, but those tries will help, hang in there mate, one more week!

Shaun Johnson – yep, SJ is back in the SuperCoach frame – has back-to-back scores of 96 and 56, leaving him at $368k with a breakeven of -28.

A few are jumping on this week, but his five scores prior to that were sub 35, including three under 25.

Unless he really delivers something special this week, I can entertain it despite my admiration for the bloke.

I’m not overly keen on anyone else at the Warriors, possibly Jazz Tevaga next week who may pick up some extra minutes with Addin Fonua-Blake and Matt Lodge now out of action.

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Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Edrick Lee 3. Dane Gagai 4. Enari Tuala 5. Dominic Young 6. Anthony Milford 7. Jake Clifford 8. David Klemmer 9. Chris Randall 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Mitchell Barnett

Bench: 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Leo Thompson 17. Mathew Croker

Reserves: 18. Simi Sasagi 19. Brodie Jones 20. Tex Hoy 21. Sauaso Sue 22. Pasami Saulo 23. Krystian Mapapalangi 24. Brayden Musgrove

Analysis: With no Round 13 coverage and some horrific form I don’t have any interest in Newcastle at the moment.

I’m not ruling them out from Round 14, but there’s no one worth going early on in my opinion that’d be better than an early bye coverage purchase.

David Klemmer and Mitch Barnett have both looked terrific and will come into consideration in a couple of weeks.

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RABBITOHS v TIGERS

Saturday, 5.30pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney

Rabbitohs: 1. Blake Taaffe 2. Alex Johnston 3. Jaxson Paulo 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Hame Sele

Bench: 14. Liam Knight 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Siliva Havili 17. Kodi Nikorima

Reserves: 18. Josh Mansour 19. Isaiah Tass 20. Trent Peoples 21. Shaq Mitchell 22. Dean Hawkins 23. Izaac Thompson 24. Cameron Murray

Analysis: South Sydney are making life difficult for owners of their contingent.

With many having heavily invested for a dream run of fixtures, they’ve been extremely underwhelming, making a host of players once considered keepers now potential sells.

Campbell Graham has been rock solid with a season average of 61, thanks largely to his tremendous base of 38 per game. Hold.

Cody Walker has been dishing out rock and diamonds, more so rocks, for a season average of 50.

He does have five round average of 69, but geez he’s look out of sorts.

With a few more nice match ups against the Tigers, bye, Titans and Dragons along with Round 17 coverage I’ll hold, but it’s very reluctant.

Jai Arrow is a sell within the next two rounds, while Damien Cook can be held with the knowledge South Sydney can’t really afford to rest him over the Origin period.

Trent Peoples was very popular this week at $175k with a breakeven of -50. With Cam Murray and Mark Nicholls back, he’s been dropped to the extended bench.

He wasn’t great last round, reflecting in his SC scoring with just 41 points in 80 minutes, granted 43 came in base.

Blake Taaffe has a breakeven of 33 and is likely to be a sell next week with Latrell nearing a return after the bye.

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Tigers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. Asu Kepaoa 3. Starford To’a 4. Brent Naden 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jackson Hastings 8. James Tamou 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Zane Musgrove 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Joe Ofahengaue

Bench: 14. Kelma Tuilagi 15. Alex Twal 16. Fa’amanu Brown 17. Stefano Utoikamanu

Reserves: 18. Alex Seyfarth 19. Jock Madden 20. Jacob Liddle 21. Tyrone Peachey 22. Fonua Pole 23. Junior Tupou 24. David Nofoaluma

Analysis: No interest at the Tigers for me until Round 14, if at all, with Kelma Tuilagi a sell at $332k having played just 16 minutes off the bench against the Bulldogs. With Luke Garner’s outstanding form he’s likely to stay there.

David Nofoaluma has been named on the extended bench and will be a watch on return.

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SHARKS v ROOSTERS

Saturday, 7.35pm, PointsBet Stadium, Cronulla

Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Connor Tracey 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Royce Hunt 11. Briton Nikora 12. Wade Graham 13. Cameron McInnes

Bench: 14. Aiden Tolman 15. Braydon Trindall 16. Teig Wilton 17. Andrew Fifita

Reserves: 18. Lachlan Miller 19. Thomas Hazelton 20. Mawene Hiroti 21. Kade Dykes 22. Jesse Colquhoun 23. Luke Metcalf 24. Kayal Iro

Analysis: No Round 13 coverage for the Sharks, but plenty of relevance regardless with games against the Warriors, Titans, Bulldogs post Round 13, followed by a depleted Storm in the second bye week.

Siosifa Talakai has been named to play after being cleared of a serious injury, he won’t be leaving my time anytime soon as long as he remains starting centre. He also earned dual CTW-2RF status this week.

Ronaldo Mulitalo is a huge play with a large ceiling, but with a breakeven of 75 (not bad) and game against the Roosters into the bye, I’ll wait.

With more minutes under his belt, Cam McInnes is a decent buy as dual 2RF-HOK, but he did only play 50 on the weekend.

He has a five round average of 60 points in mixed game time, so while some are getting now, with a breakeven of 51 he doesn’t scream ‘buy me’ before Round 13.

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Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Paul Momirovski 4. Joseph Manu 5. Joseph Suaalii 6. Sam Walker 7. Luke Keary 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Drew Hutchison 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Nat Butcher 13. Siosiua Taukeiaho

Bench: 14. Connor Watson 15. Fletcher Baker 16. Sitili Tupouniua 17. Terrell May

Reserves: 18. Lachlan Lam 19. Egan Butcher 20. Ben Marschke 21. Billy Smith 22. Kevin Naiqama 23. Adam Keighran 24. Daniel Suluka-Fifita

Analysis: I’m sticking to my guns that I’m not overly keen on attacking players at the Roosters due to the upcoming draw against the Sharks, Raiders, Storm, Eels, Panthers followed with a bye.

This means I wouldn’t invest in Sam Walker or Joseph Suaalii, Joey Manu – who should play fullback against the Raiders – is probably the exception as I think he’s the only genuine season long keeper.

Nat Butcher produced a very strong 69 points in 80 minutes against the Panthers with 67 in base!

That’s brilliant numbers in a well beaten team, leaving him at $400k with a breakeven of 18.

With Victor Radley out for a lengthy period of time he looks a very solid purchase as a round 13 bye number, before being moved on down the track.

He’s been named to start on the edge again which is encouraging news as he may play 80 minutes, although it may still be a 60-65 minute stint with Sitili Tupouniua named to return from a concussion off the bench.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start at lock, with Tupouniua starting on the edge come game day.

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BULLDOGS v DRAGONS

Sunday, 2pm, Belmore Sports Ground, Sydney

Bulldogs: 1. Matt Dufty 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Aaron Schoupp 4. Jake Averillo 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Luke Thompson 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Corey Waddell 12. Max King 13. Josh Jackson

Bench: 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Tevita Pangai Junior 16. Chris Patolo 17. Raymond Faitala-Mariner

Reserves: 19. Jackson Topine 20. Brandon Wakeham 21. Joe Stimson 22. Declan Casey 23. Jayden Okunbor 24. Paul Alamoti 25. Ava Seumanufagai

Analysis: Jacob Kiraz retains his spot on the wing. At $175k with a breakeven -82 breakeven and Round 13 coverage, this is one of the very few times I’ll invest in an outside back from a bottom four team.

Matt Burton has a strong three round average of 69 points, but I’d much prefer attacking players from strong sides, even with the looming bye coverage.

Tevita Pangai Jnr. remains a decent option having played 56 minutes off the bench, but as previous weeks, I’d be waiting till next week to buy if you are interested.

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Dragons: 1. Cody Ramsey 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Moses Mbye 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Jack Bird 12. Tariq Sims 13. Jack de Belin 14. Andrew McCullough 15. Aaron Woods 16. Michael Molo 17. Tyrell Fuimaono 18. Jack Gosiewski 19. Tautau Moga 20. Jayden Sullivan 21. Tyrell Sloan 22. Josh Kerr 23. Jackson Ford 24. Jaiyden Hunt

Analysis: With no Round 13 coverage I have no interest in the Dragons from a SuperCoach perspective until Round 14 earliest.

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RAIDERS v EELS

Sunday, 4.05pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Raiders: 1. Xavier Savage 2. Nick Cotric 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Adam Elliott

Bench: 14. Tom Starling 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Sebastian Kris 17. Corey Horsburgh

Reserves: 18. Brad Schneider 19. Harry Rushton 20. James Schiller 21. Corey Harawira-Naera 22. Trey Mooney 23. Emre Guler 24. Matt Frawley

Analysis: Jamal Fogarty makes an early return for the Raiders in a major boost to the squad.

The Round 13 coverage, and three wins on the trot, gives the Green Machine some SuperCoach relevance, although I’m still not convinced.

As tipped, Zac Woolford played just 27 minutes last week despite starting the game, scoring just 15 points.

With a breakeven of -19, some may be sucked in, but barring an injury to Tom Starling, he’s a trap.

Further, his 63 from his debut drop out of his three round rolling average after this week and his breakeven is likely to be fairly high.

Joey Tapine again warrants a look, scoring 63 points in an excellent 62 minutes against the Rabbiohs, taking his season average to 58 with dual 2RF-FRF status.

He has genuine attacking upside and could be a sneaky Round 13 POD play, with potential for extra minutes next week with Josh Papalii on Origin duty.

Jordan Rapana will lose the goal-kicking duties to returning skipper Jarrod Croker, putting a line through him as a POD play.

Xavier Savage will start at fullback in place of the injured Charnze Nicoll-Klokstadd (hamstring), and may be a cheeky buy next week, currently at just $214k.

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Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Marata Niukore 13. Isaiah Papali’i

Bench: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Nathan Brown

Reserves: 18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Jakob Arthur 20. Mitch Rein 21. Hayze Perham 22. Sean Russell 23. Ky Rodwell 24. Maika Sivo

Analysis: Ryan Matterson is a popular buy this week off the back of a three round average of 96!

He’s $711k but has again been named to play off the bench as per final teams last week. He played 65 last week so hopefully those minutes continue.

With a breakeven of 41 he shouldn’t rise too much, has the bye next week, and is in Origin contention… So, I’m happy to wait till Round 14.

I’ll do greater analysis on Parramatta from Round 14 when they become extremely relevant.

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