Quantium data analysis: Rd 12, vital numbers to beat the best

Analysing the top 100,000 NRL Supercoach teams after Round 11

Welcome back to our article analysing NRL Supercoach player ownership. 

With the bye rounds approaching and some massive injury news, now is a critical time for those teams seeking overall glory. 

Understanding which players are genuine PODs and how you are positioned for the bye rounds relative to other teams is a key element in that.

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Round 11 saw me finally arrest the slump of consecutive red arrows. I feel like my beloved Bulldogs right now. 

So much hope at the start of the year snuffed out so quickly – and suddenly playing for nothing but pride.

Like the Bulldogs, key positions have killed me (in particular five-eighth) and my timing on players like Staggs, Talakai and Olakau’atu couldn’t have been worse if I’d tried. Enough about me though – let’s get into our analysis of the top 100,000 teams.

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Fullback

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback. 

What a nightmare FLB is proving. Two weeks after Ryan Papenhuyzen went down, 42% of the top 100, 28% of the top 5,000 and 12% of the top 100,000 teams own Tommy Turbo (including me). 

Since that time, Tommy’s value has plummeted over $150k and the poor guy is now gone for the season – a tragedy both for his owners but more importantly himself and the game.  He is going to be cheap next year!

James Tedesco would ordinarily be a logical replacement, but with the Origin period looming I suspect we will see some big POD moves at FLB.

CTW

The last fortnight has seen some significant changes at CTW.

Over 50% of teams now own Ben Trbojevic and over 50% of the top 100 own Reuben Garrick (versus just 16% of the top 100,000). Other players who have surged in ownership include Christian Tuipulotu (now owned by over 25% of the top 20,000 teams) and Joseph Manu.

In contrast, a large number of Xavier Coates’ owners cashed in and each of Will Penisini, Isaiah Tass and Kotoni Staggs have been sold down.

Selwyn Cobbo is on a complete tear yet funnily enough his ownership is inversely correlated with ranking. No doubt his 3% of owners in the top 100 are happy to own him right now and are enjoying the cash increases!

The most popular trade in target this week will no doubt be Jacob Kiraz. This kid can play. 

He has a high work rate combined with tackle busting ability and an offload – which should hopefully offset the fact he’s on the end of a Bulldogs backline not exactly piling on the points. 

As a Bulldogs fan I brought him in after his first game (I needed cash!) knowing he would return to the side as soon as he was available for selection again in Round 11.  And he plays round 13…if only he wasn’t such a standout that every team will bring him in!

Five-eighth

Cameron Munster is now owned by 100% of the top 100 teams – and 82% of the top 20,000. Perhaps that explains why I’m just outside the top 20,000…

As a reminder of how misleading the overall ownership stats can be – look at the difference in ownership between Jackson Hastings, Talatau Amone and Cody Walker. Each are owned by roughly 15% of the top 100,000, yet the ownership amongst leadership teams is completely different!

Halfback

Not surprisingly, ownership of Nicho Hynes and Nathan Cleary has further consolidated over the past fortnight such that almost all leading teams have both Nicho Hynes and Nathan Cleary (potentially with Blake Taaffe or Lachlan Ilias depending on dual starting positions).

2RF

Injuries over the past month have seen huge consolidation in 2RF ownership – to the point where 100% of the top 100 teams now own Isaiah Papali’i and over 80% own each of Taumalolo, Talakai and Tago.

Lolo’s injury (and successive low scores and cash drop) could potentially throw many teams’ Round 13 bye planning into chaos.

A number of players have surged in ownership over the past fortnight. Reuben Cotter, Ryan Matterson, Nat Butcher, Trent Peoples, Viliame Kikau, Cameron McInnes and TPJ have all increased significantly – particularly amongst the leading teams.

FRF

Isaiah Papali’i is now the most popular player available at FRF.  What a two-year period he has had – and what a signing for the Wests Tigers next year.

David Klemmer is now owned by 6% of teams.

HOK

Beyond Harry Grant, we’ve seen some subtle changes at HOK over the past fortnight.  13% of teams have moved Chad Randall on and replaced him with one of Reuben Cotter, Cameron McInnes or Reece Robson.

Round 11 Captaincy Choices

Round 11 saw most teams captain either Nicho Hynes or Nathan Cleary and as a result we saw little movement as a result of captaincy selection. Hats off to one team in the top 100 who went with Joseph Suaalii!  Too bad he only posted a score of 25.

Good luck again to everyone in Round 12. 

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