Quantium data analysis: Rd 13, vital numbers to beat the best

After many weeks or even months of planning, the first bye week is finally upon us. 

The bye weeks are unquestionably the most important two weeks of the season in determining your overall rank. 

A high score can see you soar up the rankings – but a heavily depleted squad can end your season in terms of overall glory.

Round 13 has looked a nightmare for a long time. No doubt many Supercoaches are panicking due to the state of their squad. 

Let’s take a look at the ownership of each player eligible for Round 13 and then see how the top 100,000 teams are placed in terms of starting numbers pre trades this week – you might not be as badly placed as you think!

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Fullback

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback. 

I’ve only shown fullbacks who are playing in Round 13 and owned by more than 0% of the top 20,000. Note that Matt Dufty looks like he is out now too though – a blow for the team ranked 85^th!

One of the key questions floating around Supercoach circles this week is “Manu or Garrick”? 

As you can see below, it probably depends on where you are ranked and what you are looking to do. 

Manu is twice as owned overall as Garrick, but Garrick is almost twice as owned amongst the top 100. 

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I personally didn’t have a choice – I had just enough cash for Manu and couldn’t quite afford Garrick – but I’m happy with that. The top 100 teams should likely look to own both based on the table below.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow gets a run in the Cowboys starting side this week, albeit at centre.

He’s cheap and is owned by almost no one. Those tempted might want to look at Jake Averillo. If he starts at fullback (as rumoured) he is very cheap and owned by just 216 teams in the top 100,000 – now that is a POD!

CTW

CTW is one of the few positions where most teams likely have 4-5 players this week. Over 70% of the top 100 own each of Tago, May, Koula, Suaalii and Kiraz – and a further 57% own Garrick. 

The only issue of course, is that we all have many of these players – so their scores will just offset one another. I don’t own Suaalii so I’m sweating on a late withdrawal or a dud score there! Sorry Joseph.

Viliami Vailea’s late withdrawal impacted around 50% of the top 20,000 teams – including mine!

Five-eighth

Concerned you don’t have a starting five-eighth or halfback this week?  Fear not – almost all of us are in the same boat!

Halfback

Halfback is an even more barren wasteland than five-eighth! 

Given the lack of options available and the Roosters draw over the next few weeks, I suspect most teams will suck up the zero at halfback and focus on the rest of the season.

The table below suggests that is a perfectly valid strategy – the top 20,000 teams have an average 0.11 players at halfback!

2RF

2RF is arguably the position of most interest this week. Assuming Tago and Lolo are playing at CTW or FRF…between Viliame Kikau, Euan Aitken, Haumole Olakau’atu, Beau Fermor, Angus Crichton, Nat Butcher, Tohu Harris and a few others there are actually plenty of solid options available this week. 

Angus Crichton’s Origin snubbing makes him an ideal pickup this week. Currently owned by 30% of the top 100 and just 12% of the top 20,000, I suspect we will see both of these numbers rise significantly. 

The main challenge at 2RF is how to squeeze these guys in. For what it’s worth, I’m running with Kikau, Olakau’atu, Crichton and Butcher.

TPJ’s injury impacted 13% of the top 20,000 and 19% of the top 100. 

FRF

Around 60% of teams were sweating on Jason Taumalolo being named this week.  Let’s hope he starts! 

Max King has done a tremendous job for both the Bulldogs and Supercoaches and a starting role in Round 13 is a perfect swansong. He will no doubt be traded out by many teams over coming weeks as they start preparing for Round 17.

Beyond King and Taumololo, the only other player owned by more than 5% of leading teams is Joseph Tapine. I’m running with King and Lolo, and I think that is perfectly acceptable.

HOK

Hooker is another position where teams are struggling for options. The average team in the top 20,000 has 0.29 hookers pre trades this week (0.36 for the top 100)!  Those that went early on Tom Starling would also be worried about his minutes after last week.

Results – Players Available in Round 13

The table below sets out the distribution of numbers of players available for selection in Round 13 by rank – prior to any trades this week.  

Note that no team in the top 10,000 has more than 15 players available! In fact, only one team in the top 100 (coming 57^th) has more than 13 players pre trades.

Two teams in the top 100 (including the team coming 11^th) have just 4 players! Not quite sure what they are thinking.

In my case, I’m roughly 20,000^th (yes, rough season) and have 10 players pre trades. 

So looking at the table below, just 18% of teams ranked ahead of me have more players than me – and 68% have less than me.  So hopefully I am well positioned to make a decent jump up the rankings.

The final row in the table shows the average number of players available for selection by ranking zone. 

So, on average, the top 100 teams have 9.6 players available and the top 10,0000 teams have 8.7. 

The chart below sets out the average number of players available for the top 1,000 teams, the next 1,000 teams, the next 1,000 teams again and so on. 

As you can see, teams near the lead are more prepared for the bye – but as the table shows, there are still plenty of teams in poor shape. 

Hence why bye rounds provide the greatest opportunity for ranking moves than any other rounds.

For those in the top 2,000, I’ve further broken down the average ownership in groups of 100 in the chart below. 

Again, almost every group of 100 teams is slightly better placed than the next 100 teams behind them.

Round 12 Captaincy Choices

Round 12 was a tough week at captain, with both Nathan Cleary and Nicho Hynes disappointing. 15% of teams looped Cameron Munster.

With teams short of players, everyone gets a double shot at captaincy this week. 

With no standout captaincy choices, we should hopefully see lots of variation in VC and C selections!

Good luck again to everyone in Round 13! 

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