Quantium data analysis: Rd 14, vital numbers to beat the best

The first bye round is behind us, and it proved to be a very high scoring round! 

Most popular players performed very well, and some teams posted huge scores considering the depleted teams. 

Those teams who had more players were likely rewarded with a big bump in rank. In my case, I had 13 players and posted a respectable 986, seeing me rise from 22,000^th to the top 13,000. 

I figure if I can have a change in luck and get the next bye round right, I can get closer to the top 1,000.

With up to four trades last week, player ownership in many positions have seen some huge changes!

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Fullback

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback. 

Some huge changes took place at FLB last week. James Tedesco’s ownership fell from 50% to 31% amongst the top 1,000 teams, whilst Blake Taaffe’s ownership in that group fell from 31% to just 6%. Just 3% of the top 100 teams now own Taaffe.

On the flipside, Joey Manu’s ownership amongst the top 1,000 has increased from 31% a week ago to 77% – and he is owned by a whopping 92% of the top 100!

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Similarly, Reuben Garrick is now owned by 71% of the top 1,000 (vs 37% last week) and 84% of the top 100.

Other players whose ownership amongst the top 1,000 have increased included Scott Drinkwater (15% to 36%), Xavier Savage (1% to 8%), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (0% to 5%), Dylan Edwards (2% to 6%), Reece Walsh (6% to 9%) and Jake Averillo (0% to 1%).

Whilst many of those players are dual position, it does still create some more variety over the next few weeks as we navigate the Origin and bye period.

CTW

As part of the rush to bring in guys like Manu and Garrick, a number of popular CTWs were sold down last week.

Ownership changes amongst the top 1,000 teams included Will Penisini (36% to 17%), Kotoni Staggs (20% to 8%), Ben Trbojevic (50% to 36%), Isaiah Tass (44% to 33%) and Selwyn Cobbo (11% to 7%).

Xavier Coates looked to pick up a serious injury during Origin. Whilst Coates is owned by 19% of the top 100,000, he is actually owned by just 3% of the top 10,000 and none of the top 100. Coates is a classic example of why we do these stats.

With the round 13 bye round behind us, teams will quickly start adjusting their teams for Round 17. The only CTWs whose team plays in round 17 owned by more than 25% of the top 5,000 teams are Siosifa Talakai (owned by 70%) and Isaiah Tass (owned by 38% but no guarantee of even playing). Lots of trades to be made!

Five-eighth

Round 13 saw a couple of five-eighths post very solid scores – most notably Scott Drinkwater and Matt Burton. 

In a week where most teams were running with no halves, that meant that teams who had either of those guys surged up the rankings. 

As a result, our leading teams are now much more skewed towards ownership of Drinkwater compared to last week. 

Whilst Drinkwater’s ownership amongst the top 100,000 teams only increased from 17% to 18% – his ownership amongst the top 100 increased from 10% to 39%.

5% of the top 100 teams brought in Josh Schuster. Not sure about that move – especially as he has been named on the bench again this week.

Halfback

Ownership at halfback is now heavily consolidated with Nicho Hynes and Nathan Cleary – each are owned by over 90% of the top 5,000 teams. 

Each of Blake Taaffe and Lachlan Ilias were sold off heavily last week. Taaffe’s ownership amongst the top 1,000 teams has fallen from 31% to 6%, whilst Ilias’ ownership has fallen from 20% to 13%.

2RF

The bye round has resulted in quite a spread of ownership at 2RF.

Angus Crichton is now owned by 86% of the top 1,000 teams (versus 19% last week) whilst the top 1,000 also saw big ownership increases for Haumole Olakua’atu (+26%), Joseph Tapine (+19%), Jason Taumalolo (+16%), Nat Butcher (+13%) and Viliame Kikau (+8%).  

22% of the top 100 teams now own Tohu Harris versus just 5% of the top 100,000.

In contrast, TPJ’s ownership amongst the top 1,000 fell from 16% to 3%, Ryan Matterson fell from 33% to 23% and we also saw reductions for Isaah Yeo (-14%), Ben Trbojevic (-14%), Jai Arrow (-9%) and Reuben Cotter (-6%).

FRF

FRF ownership amongst the leading teams is heavily concentrated around four players – Isaiah Papali’i, Payne Haas, Max King and Jason Taumalolo.

Papali’i plays round 17 and is a season keeper regardless, whilst Haas and even Taumalolo look like keepers too.  Max King will no doubt be sold down by FRF’s playing round 17 who look thin on the ground.  David Klemmer looks the most obvious target.

HOK

Round 13 saw around 35% of the leading teams sell Harry Grant for a hooker playing last week. The result is that we now have five or six hookers who are fairly well owned amongst the top teams – and many teams will currently have two hookers that are unlikely to be true season keepers. 

Throw in Cameron McInnes (a likely Round 17 target) and I suspect we will see lots more trade activity at hooker over the coming month. 

Round 13 Captaincy Choices

In a week with no clear-cut captain, looping was always going to be important. As it turns out, all of the popular options scored well. In fact, every team in the top 100 scored at least 80 for their captaincy choice (in some cases via the VC loop).

The most popular captaincy choice (or VC loop) proved to be Reuben Garrick who posted a very respectable 99.  Hats off to the 43% of teams who went with either Joey Manu or Scott Drinkwater.

Good luck again to everyone in Round 14! 

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