Final Word: Trades, tactics, tips, Round 14

It’s fair to say this six to seven week period during the State of Origin series will make or break many a Supercoach’s season. 

Managing dwindling trade and boost numbers along with the need to field some good numbers in the second bye round in Rd-17 and also set up your team for the run home makes it a delicate juggling act. 

No amount of planning can account for good or bad luck, and player injuries and health and restings will also play a huge part in Supercoach scoring in this critical period. 

I don’t watch any games on Channel Nine mainly because I don’t like ads while the game is going. 

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Pre-game, halftime and after the game sure go for it. I understand the game has to be paid for by advertsisers. 

Anyway so I’m watching State of Origin 1 and Channel Nine bring up this stat I’ve never seen before which was how many metres per minute the players were running in the game. 

What caught my eye was just how much quicker the game was on the players in State of Origin. 

The average for an NRL game was 80 and most of the players on the graphics were up around 110+. 

That’s like a 38% increase in intensity to a normal NRL game (the best rugby league competition in the world). 

Plenty of factors contribute to this including minimal stoppages because of altered refereeing interpretations, probably 34 of the top 45-50 players in the game playing on the field at the one time and of course the mystique and legend of State of Origin football. 

Anyway, how does this relate to Supercoach you might be wondering? 

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Well it got me thinking that these players like Munster, Cleary, Tedesco and Cook who are punching out 80 minutes are playing the equivalent of a 100+ minute NRL game. 

This clearly has a cumulative effect and hence why they are a massive chance of being rested or having reduced minutes in club games. 

With only two spots to fill in the FLB, 5/8 and HFB positions in Supercoach does it therefore make your secondary player so much more important over this month and a half period?

For instance, let’s say you have held Tedesco or maybe Cook. Most Supercoaches up there will have a Munster or Cleary and most likely both. 

What back up do you have? Because there is a huge difference between a Dylan Brown and a Blake Taaffe, a Nicho Hynes and a Lachlan Ilias. 

I think you’re probably catching my drift by now. Depth in those positions with only two spots available and the best scoring players affected by Origin is going to be critical. 

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Strategy 

It’s about now or probably more so a week or so ago I started to question why was I so aggressive with my trades and boosts early in the season. 

Sitting in 1,325^th place I’m starting to question whether I have the arsenal at my disposal to make up the 768 point deficit that currently exists between my team and the leading team in the comp, Roosters Pack. 

400 points deficit to a spot in the top 100 seems measurably more achievable. 

Either way I’m going to go down swinging I think. Before trading this round I have 15 trades left and a boost. 

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I have 7 players for the Round-17 bye but that is more realistically like 4 because I am counting Peoples (might not even make Souths side), Papenhuyzen (likely to play Origin 3) and Sasagi (highly likely I’ll trade out of my side before 17). 

The maximum trades I can use prior to Rd-17 is 9, so the absolute most players I could field in Rd-17 is probably 13-15. 

That’d be quite acceptable and in fact I think I’ll aim for more like 11-12 and hopefully savee an extra trade or two for the run home. 

To a large extent my value proposition strategy has worked in gaining me a valuable team. 

My current team value is $13,781,200, one of the higher valued teams I’ve come across. Now it remains to be seen whether all this value can be converted into plenty of points in the run home. 

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Trades 

Trades I’m considering this week are bringing in Ezra Mam, Ronaldo Mulitalo and maybe even Brandon Smith for Sasagi, Tuipulotu and Cotter. 

I’m not sold on the last trade so I will certainly let things play out over the weekend and be dynamic and flexible with my trades. 

PODs & Super PODS 

Here’s the players I’ve identified as PODs (Point of Difference players – less than 10% owned) and Super PODS (less than 2% owned) that should be on your radar. 

I’ve listed them in ranking order of who I believe is the best to take the risk on: 

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PODs (My top-5 ranked) 

1.    Cam McInnes – Shockingly only 4.7% own still. Surely that changes this week? He’s a great play for Rd-17 and a keeper in my eyes.  

2.   Ronaldo Multialo – The Sharks draw is juicy as and Mulitalo outside Talakai should be in for a big finish to the season. He comes with some risk as he is reliant on attacking points, but he’s likely coming into my side. 

3.   Brandon Smith – A good handcuff if you are keeping Harry Grant or even a solid trade-in for Grant or Cotter during the Origin period. You won’t get him any cheaper and he is due. 

4.   David Klemmer – A rock Solid option if you are looking to upgrade a Max King or trade out a Payne Haas who is likely to get rested a fair bit over the Origin period. No attacking upside except offloads and great base. 

5.   Xavier Savage – Canberra are playing well. Savage is risky but he is fast and skilful. 

Super PODs (Top-1) 

1.     Maika Sivo – Has a proven pedigree and I just roughly worked out he has averaged over 105+ Supercoach points in his three return games in reserve grade. Huge Super POD!

CAPTAIN

VC might be irrelevant and the C surely must go on Nicho Hynes playing against a Warriors side in disarray. 

I expect a spirited performance from the Warriors but unless you were prepared to take a flyer on Talakai or Mulitalo then Hynes has to be your man. 

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Round-13 Recap

Duck egg for round-13. Had live tickets running into either Davey or Tuipolotou to score but neither did. 

Round-14 Best Bets (Odds courtesy of TopSport) – Total Bets $50

Multi

Dragons +12.5/Raiders +4.5/Sharks/Eels @ $5.20 (TopUp)x $40

To score a try Multi’s 

A Brimson/S Talakai/E Mam @ $29 (TopUp) x $10