Quantium data analysis: Rd 18, vital numbers to beat the best

As expected, the Round 17 bye round had a huge impact on overall scores and rankings. 

Several POD players going big (most notably Mitch Moses, Cody Walker and Kotoni Staggs) meant some teams surged up the ladder, whilst many teams were forced to play well short.

One of the notable movers was defending champion, Tim Moodie, whose Villi Army has surged to 37^th place after Round 17.  That is some title defence.  Our very own Tim Williams, second in 2020, is also well placed, now up to 107^th.  Nicely done boys.

With Round 17 done and dusted, Origin has thrown another challenge with multiple big names not even included in the extended squads this week. Ivan Cleary in particular has thrown us a curveball by resting his Origin contingent.  That hurts!

At the time of writing…before Origin 3…many teams are already struggling to field a strong team. 

I’ve done a quick analysis and the top 100 teams for example are already missing 5.5 players on average – no doubt with some more Origin damage to come. 

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One team in the top 100 (coming 97^th) is already down at least 10 players. Supercoaches will be torn between taking a hit this week in terms of team quality and burning valuable trades that could be critical in the run home. Good luck with that choice!

Not surprisingly, round 17 saw some huge changes in player ownership in each position.  I won’t comment on all these changes as we go through each position – but instead will focus on PODs and the biggest moves that jump out at me.

Fullback

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback. 

The most notable changes at fullback are the massive increases in ownership for Ryan Papenhuyzen and Latrell Mitchell.  Latrell is now owned by over 50% of the top 100!

Conversely, James Tedesco is now a genuine POD for those who held – just 10% of the top 100 and 17% of the top 10,000 own Teddy.

CTW

There is actually a reasonable amount of variation in CTW ownership post Round 17.  There are 12 CTWs owned by at least 20% of the top 100 – including Maika Sivo, Jed Cartwright and Brian To’o. 

Popular 2022 cash cows Penisini, Koula and Kiraz are now each owned by 15% or less of the top 100.

Five-eighth

After a tough season owning Cody Walker, he finally delivered in Round 17, posting a delightful 119 in a week when many other teams either started Dylan Brown (57) or had Cameron Munster or Scott Drinkwater on the bench.

Five-eighth ownership is now spread amongst five players – Mam, Munster, Brown, Drinky and Cody. 

No doubt Munster’s ownership will increase post Origin, but that will require teams to burn a trade. In saying that, I suspect most teams will use at least one trade to upgrade Ezra Mam in coming weeks.  Ezra has done a very solid job in his time – well done son.

Halfback

Mitchell Moses is another player who chose the best possible week to punch out a lovely 115 (with the arm band for some of us!).

The challenge, of course, is what HFB, FLB and FE combo to target for the run home. 

As a Moses owner, I might need to stick solid as opposed to burning a trade to bring in the likes of Teddy or Latrell (via Nicho)… as tempting as those trades would be.

Nathan Cleary’s resting is a massive blow for teams – see later in this article.

2RF

2RF ownership makes for some interesting reading post Round 17. 

Check out Shaun Lane…owned by 7% of teams overall but 40% of the top 100. 

Similarly, the likes of Cameron McInnes, Brandon Smith, Keaon Koloamatangi, Jed Cartwright and Zac Hosking are owned by a large number of teams – despite none of them being keepers.

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Ryan Matterson must be really frustrating his owners.  We’ve seen this with Matto and the Eels in the past – always being “one week away” only to miss long stints (this time with ribs versus concussion historically). 

That is a lot of cash to have sitting on the pine with no fixed return date.  

I’m surprised 14% of the top 100 have been that patient with Matto. In saying that, the 14% of the top 100 who have held Reuben Cotter have been even more patient!

FRF

The form FRF in Supercoach is Joseph Tapine – with a 5RA a full 11 points clear of the next best player (Big Tino) and 16 clear of Joe Ofahengaue. As much as I think Tapine is in form, he is a luxury I won’t be able to afford (in terms of trades). The 39% of the top 100 who do have him will love that POD though.

44% of the top 100 welcomed rookie Fonua Pole last week. This kid looks a goer – and a handy guy for depth in case we get absolutely desperate come the end of the season.

Around 20% of teams now own David Klemmer. 

HOK

Hooker is another position where ownership is nicely spread post Round 17.

Personally I will be using one of my remaining trades this week to bring Harry Grant in for Apisai Koroisau. 

The trade should strengthen my starting side this week and Harry is a guy I want in my starting 17 for the run home.  Api has done a wonderful job over the past month or so though!

Results – Players unavailable for Round 18

The mass outs combined with various other injuries and nuffs mean that many teams are scrambling for a quality starting side this week.

At the time of writing (pre-Origin), the table below sets out the most owned players who are not available this week – with Nathan Cleary leading the way. It’s a tough read! I will update post-Origin if we see lots more players ruled out.

The final row in the table shows the average number of players unavailable for selection by ranking zone.  On average, the top 100 teams are missing 5.5 players already.  This increases to closer to 6 players for the top 20,000 teams. 

The table below shows the distribution of the number of players unavailable by rank. 

So as an example, 1 team in the top 100 (team 97) already has 10 players unavailable.  21% of the top 100 already have 7 or more players unavailable. 

Given the players available include the likes of Pole, Mam etc, trades will need to be burnt to be comfortable fielding a strong squad.

Leading teams with only 4-5 unavailable may take the opportunity to save trades and hope the carnage unfolds in future weeks.

Good luck to everyone in Round 18!  More importantly, go the Blues on Wednesday night and go the Dogs on Sunday!

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