Data Analysis: Round 20, who decides it from here?

Not long to go now. Like me, you’re probably a few moves short of the team you’d like and don’t have the trades to get there. We can still check in on this year’s most relevant players to guide our last trade or try and learn something for next year.

Round 19 gave us a mixed bag of scores with many of the same underperformers (looking at you Crisp, Short, Petracca and Dunkley) as recent weeks and strong scoring from those not in your team (hello Laird and Sinclair). Stewart is looking a tempting trade in this week and could give you the edge you need for that last push up the rankings or league final.

Let’s take a similar view to last week and see how the most selected players by the top 1,000 have been faring line by line.

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Defence

• The back six would appear to be fairly generic across the top 1,000 with high ownership numbers across the top seven players. The key decision looks to be whether you trade in Stewart (at an achievable $562k) – if you have the trades.
• Sinclair, also known as the sixth highest scoring player of the year, is the clear standout amongst the highly owned. If you don’t have him, you are falling behind.
• Anyone with Nick Daicos (113 3Rd avg) or Himmelberg (120 3Rd avg) – well done.
• Hewett is out again and is no guarantee for next week. I think you have to move him on if you can.

Player Name	Avg	Top 1000 Own %	3Rd Avg	Form
James Sicily	114	93.7%	101.0	cold
Jack Sinclair	114	84.9%	120.0	steady
Jayden Short	100	83.4%	90.3	steady
Jack Crisp	99	67.8%	83.0	cold
Sam Docherty	108	65.5%	99.0	steady
George Hewett	111	60.2%	101.3	cold
Jordan Dawson	109	55.8%	88.3	cold
Nick Daicos	92	20.9%	113.7	hot
Bailey Dale	106	14.0%	99.7	steady
Harry Himmelberg	91	13.1%	120.0	hot
Dan Houston	100	9.2%	84.3	cold
Tom Stewart	115	5.0%	98.3	cold

*Form: cold equals 3 RD avg 10 points less than season, hot equals 3 RD avg 10 points more than season

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Midfield

• Neale, Macrae and Miller are in the majority of top 1,000 teams so won’t help or hurt your ranking too much.
• Laird (140 3Rd avg) and Merrett (139 3Rd avg) have been the best recent performers of the comparatively lesser owned players – so whether you own both or not is likely a big reason for how your rankings have moved over the past few weeks.
• Steele (128 3Rd avg) could be a nice trade in at $587k if you are looking for a cheaper or lesser owned option. You could even look at a sideways trade if you have lost faith in the likes of Brayshaw or Petracca.

Player Name	Avg	Top 1000 Own %	3Rd Avg	Form
Lachie Neale	126	99.5%	111.0	cold
Jack Macrae	119	97.0%	107.7	cold
Touk Miller	120	96.6%	134.0	hot
Clayton Oliver	129	85.1%	132.0	steady
Rory Laird	127	76.9%	139.7	hot
Patrick Cripps	109	73.1%	98.0	cold
Christian Petracca	110	48.1%	104.3	steady
Zach Merrett	113	44.1%	138.7	hot
Andrew Brayshaw	112	40.3%	102.3	steady
Callum Mills	118	38.6%	117.0	steady
Sam Walsh	114	35.3%	108.3	steady
Jack Steele	114	33.1%	128.3	hot

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Ruck

• I would have thought the ruck scoring would be zero-sum to some extent in that if a few were down in scoring someone else should be up – but it seems that is not the case. At least we are all in the same boat.
• There doesn’t look to be a clear trade in option based on recent form so it would seem most sensible to hold for now.

Player Name	Avg	Top 1000 Own%	3Rd Avg	Form
Jarrod Witts	111	91.3%	93.7	cold
Sean Darcy	103	56.3%	99.3	steady
Tim English	112	17.5%	90.0	cold
Darcy Cameron	86	10.2%	80.7	steady
Todd Goldstein	96	6.4%	110.0	hot
Reilly O’Brien	103	6.2%	86.7	cold
Max Gawn	113	5.7%	98.3	cold

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Forwards

• We are fairly similar for the top 1,000 across the forwards with a clear top five in particular.
• Is anyone going to be game enough to jump off Dunkley (70 3Rd avg)? He looks to still have the role based on his AFL fantasy score of 102 points last round so could turn it around. Nevertheless, one to look at moving on if you are looking to make a high risk, high reward trade.

Player Name	Avg	Top 1000 Ownership	3Rd Avg	Form
Josh Dunkley	105	95.6%	69.7	cold
M. Bontempelli	119	87.9%	147.7	hot
Will Brodie	103	87.3%	89.0	cold
Stephen Coniglio	102	86.0%	104.7	steady
Luke Parker	103	78.6%	101.0	steady
Tim English	112	48.0%	90.0	cold
Isaac Heeney	99	21.5%	107.3	steady
Tom Liberatore	107	17.9%	108.7	steady
Darcy Cameron	86	16.0%	80.7	steady
Harry Himmelberg	91	14.4%	120.0	hot