Sit v start: Who to play in your final 17, Rd 22?

After a hiatus due to work & family commitments, I’m back for a look at start/sit. It’s a great time of year for it, with squads deeper and trades scarce. Getting these calls right could make a huge difference for the run home.

Below are my thoughts for this week, with plays listed in priority order.  

A general note to keep an eye on the weather leading into the round and across the weekend. For rain-affected matches I’d slightly favour forwards over backs.

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Start

Ranking	Player	Avg	3RA	Base + Power – Negs	PPM	Avg Minutes	Exp Minutes	Ground	Vs	Matchup PPM	Projected score
1	Cherry-Evans	66	36	33	0.83	80	80	Away	Titans	0.78	64
2	Lane	64	93	52	0.87	77	80	Home	Rabbitohs	0.85	69
3	Cook	75	77	54	0.96	78	80	Away	Eels	0.82	71
4	Fifita, D	64	58	49	0.89	72	80	Home	Sea Eagles	0.87	70
5	Crichton, A	61	74	51	0.82	74	80	Home	Cowboys	0.83	66
6	Koloamatangi	66	95	53	0.85	78	80	Away	Eels	0.83	67
7	Brown, D	72	80	42	0.9	80	80	Home	Rabbitohs	0.65	62
8	Haas	65	76	63	1.06	62	65	Home	Knights	1.03	68
9	Olakau’atu	67	52	51	0.91	73	70	Away	Titans	0.82	61

Despite recent form, I have DCE atop this chart. His ceiling vs the Titans is too high to ignore. The rest of the picks are based on form and projected scores.

Olakau’atu’s form and minutes haven’t been great (perhaps an injury niggle), but I think he’s a great chance for a pie or two vs the Titans.

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Consider

Ranking	Player	Avg	3RA	Base + Power – Negs	PPM	Avg Minutes	Exp Minutes	Ground	Vs	Matchup PPM	Projected score
10	Kikau	66	69	42	0.87	76	80	Home	Storm	0.81	67
11	Robson	62	66	49	0.83	74	80	Away	Roosters	0.78	64
12	Mam	60	53	27	0.77	79	80	Home	Knights	0.7	59
13	Matterson	68	56	62	1.19	57	60	Home	Rabbitohs	0.94	64
14	Drinkwater	73	81	30	0.94	77	80	Away	Roosters	0.52	58
15	Koroisau	51	59	43	0.88	72	75	Home	Storm	0.71	60
16	Talakai	62	62	44	0.83	75	80	Away	Tigers	0.69	61
17	Mulitalo	61	38	31	0.78	78	80	Away	Tigers	0.69	59
18	Holmes	66	82	33	0.82	80	80	Away	Roosters	0.59	56
19	Taumalolo	61	61	53	1.08	56	56	Away	Roosters	0.93	56
20	Lomax	60	49	36	0.76	79	80	Away	Raiders	0.6	54
21	Johnston	69	67	27	0.85	81	80	Away	Eels	0.7	62
22	To’o	59	59	42	0.76	77	80	Home	Storm	0.62	55
23	Tago	61	57	37	0.77	80	80	Home	Storm	0.62	56

A tough week for players in this bracket. I think a few gut calls will need to be made. Mam, Talakai and Mulitalo all have decent matchups. However, it’s hard to trust them based on their floor.

For some reason Doueihi dropped off my stats table, but I’d have him above Mam, based on a higher floor.

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Sit

Ranking	Player	Avg	3RA	Base + Power – Negs	PPM	Avg Minutes	Exp Minutes	Ground	Vs	Matchup PPM	Projected score
24	May	62	43	38	0.78	80	80	Home	Storm	0.62	56
25	Tass	52	52	36	0.7	74	80	Away	Eels	0.7	56
26	Klemmer	64	59	60	1.08	59	50	Away	Broncos	1.07	54
27	McInnes	56	63	52	1.02	55	55	Away	Tigers	0.94	54
28	King	51	53	50	1.12	45	50	Away	Warriors	1	53

This lot all have question marks over minutes/injuries/matchup/form. I’d avoid playing if you can!

*Projected points = ((Player PPM x expected minutes) + (Matchup PPM x expected minutes)