Final Word: Captains, weather, super PODs, Rd 5

SuperCoach round 4 is in the history books, and as quick as it was written in, round 5 is knocking on our door step.

The Cooma Stallions have had a terrific start to the season, sitting in 10^th place overall.

While I’m thrilled to sit high up the rankings a third of the way through the season, I’m even happier that my cash generation has been fairly substantial which should set up the rest of the tournament for my squad nicely.

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I haven’t missed too many of the main cheapies outside of Paddy Dooley, while a number of my mid-range players such as Jhye Richardson have sky-rocketed in value.

Normally around this stage I’ll look to cash in a top dollar player like Richardson or Matt Short, but as a result of the early fortunes I won’t require either to leave my side.

We all know how volatile SuperCoach BBL is, and I’m very aware that a hot start can come crumbling down in the space of one match, so I’ll enjoy it while it lasts, and hopefully that’s for the rest of the season!

Note that the only dual position player added with positional updates after round 4 was Beau Webster gaining dual BAT/BWL positioning which is huge for his credentials, and which makes him more of a purchase option this round with his -55 breakeven.

A shout out the the SC Playbook in-house league who remain first position out of every league in Supercoach!

We went back-to-back the past two NRL Supercoach seasons from over 20,000 leagues, and finished 7th in SC BBL last year, so hopefully another top gong is on the way.

Let’s take a look at Supercoach BBL Round 5.

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Weather Watch

All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Wednesday, 12PM. All times are in AEDT. Forecasts are subject to change.

Wednesday

7:15PM: Sixers v Renegades, SCG, Sydney

Forecast: Mostly sunny, 29 degrees, 0% chance of rain.

Verdict: Looking all clear.

Thursday

6:05PM: Heat v Thunder, Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast

Forecast: Possible shower, 27 degrees, 40% chance of 0-1mm of rain.

Verdict: Looking fairly clear, but monitor for showers leading into the clash.

9:15PM: Scorchers v Stars, Optus Stadium, Perth

Forecast: Sunny, 35 degrees, 0% chance of rain.

Verdict: All clear.

Friday

6:30PM: Renegades v Sixers, GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

Forecast: Partly cloudy, 25 degrees, 10% chance of rain.

Verdict: Looking all clear.

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Looking Ahead

Looking ahead to Round 5 we have the Sydney Sixers and Melbourne Renegades playing on the double, so it looks the move to target those two sides who boast plenty of great options.

The Renegades are on fire with three wins and a draw, while the Sixers have several falling guns ready to be picked up at a discount.

The Strikers and Hurricanes have the bye, so you may need to move on a player or two from those sides.

However, if you have a full side regardless and can hold onto say Shadab Khan, Matt Short or Rashid Khan, it seems wise to do so.

We then have two consecutive weeks with no byes or double game weeks, exciting!

After this round we can really start to target out and out guns for our squad, regardless of double game weeks.

Following that, the draw goes bonkers with five teams on the double in the space of two weeks. I advise saving at least one booster to use prior to this period.

Super PODs

In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 5% ownership (or around about) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.

They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.

As ownerships of double game week players will likely soar above 10% for most of those options closer to game time once trades are made, I’ll look towards single game week players.

Last week, Gurinder Sandhu flunked hard with 6 points! Not cool Gurinder.

Normally I don’t put a double game week player in here for the reason listed above, however I’m going to go with Shaun Marsh this week despite being on the ‘Gades double.

Marsh is at 3.2% ownership at the time of writing.

The reason for this is that I suspect with so many great buys available this week, and Marsh playing his first game back from injury in months, at an awkward price of $121k, not many people will flock to him.

The risk is obvious in that he’s underdone, however he’s also one of the classiest cricketers in Australia with a proven BBL record.

He may just be the flyer to make some substantial jumps this week.

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Breakevens

Each week we’ll list the top players with both the highest and lowest breakevens, plus a few additional players worth noting, to help track your cash movement.

The breakeven number is the score required in the upcoming round for a player to make or lose money.

Lowest breakeven (Money-makers)

Beau Webster -55

Alex Hales -36

David Moody -20

Matt Gilkes -19

Thomas Kelly -19

Campbell Kellaway -9

Ollie Davies -7

Luke Wood -3

Jimmy Neesham -3

Shadab Khan -2

Will Sutherland -2

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Highest breakeven (Likely price drop)

Note that the substantially high Sixers and Renegades breakevens are the scores across both games of their double.

Ben Dwarshuis 149

Nic Maddinson 147

Henry Thornton 146

Sean Abbott 144

Kane Richardson 134

Hayden Kerr 133

Jhye Richardson 131

Tom Rogers 131

Ben McDermott 126

Xavier Bartlett 123

Aaron Finch 121

Akeal Hosein 120

Josh Philippe 120

Trent Boult 113

Matt Short 103

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Skippers

Last week, Shadab Khan was top pick as vice-captain playing in game one where he delivered with 111 points! I didn’t own, so I went with Akeal Hosein who notched 98 points.

Daniel Sams was the pick of the straight captaincy options playing later in the round, he was solid with 59 points, but didn’t get close to striking the willow as the Thunder trounced the Heat by 10 wickets!

This week, it’s basically all eyes on game one with the Renegades and Sixers on the double taking each other on in the opener.

Take your pick…

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I’m leaning to what I think may be a semi-POD move in Sean Abbott, although I could be completely wrong.

I suspect people will flock to Akeal Hosein for obvious reasons off the back of a 102 point average, and there’s no way I’ll knock that.

But it presents the option to lock in Abbott who is an all-time great of SuperCoach BBL, despite his slower start to the season averaging just 48.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned in Supercoach over the years is that more often than not, class is permanent, form is temporary, so I can see Abbott bouncing back in big fashion.

While it’s often a play that if your VC on the double goes low you can then move to a POD skipper on a single game week, this week you’d really need your VC to go sub 15-20 to consider going elsewhere.