Final Word: Captains, weather, super PODs, Rd 7

The single game round saw flops to a major contingent of Supercoach stars, making it a difficult round of scoring across the board.

Don’t lose faith in the likes of Dan Sams, Matt Short and Jhye Richardson who will bounce back and once again reinforce the notion that form is temporary, class is permanent.

Maybe that’s just me trying to boost my own confidence after a horror week.

I wrote in recent articles that Supercoach BBL is full of highs and lows, and there’d been very little of the latter so far in BBL12 for the Stals, so I knew it was coming…

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The Cooma Stallions managed a mediocre 478 points in Round 6, with Marcus Stoinis on the bench, a cruel blow.

My team was very well set up and it was sitting him, Hayden Kerr or Matt Short, and it’s safe to say I made the wrong call as Big Stoin finally returned to form which was welcomed by all, well almost all…

I dropped from 11^th overall to 33^rd overall, which to be frank I thought was going to be a lot worse, so I got away with it okay.

The beauty of BBL Supercoach is that a new round is always just a day away, so a new opportunity to bounce back never takes long.

Let’s take a look at Supercoach BBL Round 7, with some threatening weather causing some concerns.

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Weather Watch

All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Monday, 4PM. All times are in AEDT. Forecasts are subject to change.

Monday

7.15PM: Hurricanes v Strikers, Blundstone Arena, Hobart

Forecast: Shower or two, possible storm. 70% chance of 0-8mm of rain, the chance of a thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening, possibly severe with damaging winds and large hail. Possible heavy rain falls.

Verdict: MONITOR LIKE A HAWK! Thunderstorms are by nature extremely unpredictable (Tim Bailey, eat your heart out), so it may be enough to end the entire game, or pass by and get in all overs.

With the Hurricanes on the double next round, it’s even more vital as they’re major trade targets. If looking threatening, it may be worth waiting until next round to trade in. At the very least, make sure you have your auto-emergency on a few players from this game in case little action is had.

Tuesday

7:15PM: Stars v Renegades, MCG, Melbourne

Forecast: Cloudy, 16, 30% chance of 0-0.4mm of rain.

Verdict: Looking fairly well clear at this stage, with the brief shower due in the morning.

Wednesday

6:05PM: Sixers v Heat, North Sydney Oval, Sydney

Forecast: Shower or two, possible storm. 70% chance of 0-10mm of rain.

Verdict: Much like the above with the Strikers v Hurricanes, employ similar tactics as there’s a chance of storms. They don’t appear as severe as that game so hopefully it’ll be clear, but monitor the updates in coming days to aid decisions.

9:15PM: Scorchers v Thunder, Optus Stadium, Perth

Forecast: Sunny, 37 degrees, 0% chance of rain.

Verdict: Looking like the only game without any rain threat at all!

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Looking Ahead

Essentially the same here as last round, it’s very straight forward this week for Round 7, there’s no teams on the double or on the bye.

From there, things get hectic. We have two teams on the double game week in Round 8 in the Sixers and Hurricanes.

Two things here, don’t look to sell your Sixers players as a result, hold until then unless you really don’t want them.

Secondly, the Hurricanes play in game one of Round 7, so it looks a good play to target their players with trades to use as auto-emergency loop options.

If they fire, they’ll slot into your starting team (with the right loops utilised of course), if they flop, no worries, and you’re ahead of the pack for Round 8.

Note that if you’re after any auto-emergency options, the Sydney Thunder play late in every round for the rest of the season.

Super PODs

In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 5% ownership (or around about) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.

They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.

As ownerships of double game week players will likely soar above 10% for most of those options closer to game time once trades are made, I’ll look towards single game week players.

Last week, Henry Thornton was first pick with 49 points in a decent return. He remains a strong pick this week (weather pending) at a $22k discount.

I also made mention of Colin de Grandhomme who didn’t exactly excel with 23 points, I traded him in myself and despite the score I was thrilled with his role.

He batted at 5 (13 off 8) and bowled his four overs but couldn’t take a wicket. I honestly think he remains a terrific purchase at small ownership, again, weather pending tonight.

This week, I was going to say Mark Steketee at 3% ownership (how quickly that changed!) due to his death bowling role and drop in price, but the game at the batsmen friendly North Sydney Oval and potential storms around scared me off.

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So this week, I’m going with Baxter Holt. Yep, you read right, I’m going with a non-active player.

Experienced Supercoaches will know exactly what I’m on about, non-experienced players will be thinking I’ve lost the plot.

But Holt is actually a player I’m trading in myself as it stands.

I should preface by saying that if tonight’s Strikers v Canes game looks to get washed out it’d change plans as bringing in another auto-emergency player wouldn’t be wise if there was already multiple not playing in Round 7.

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But all going to plan, I want Holt to allow me to access the auto-emergency loophole play in the WKP position.

Owning Josh Philippe, and soon to be Matty Wade, I want ideally to be able to play both each round, while also having a crack at the loophole if one plays early and flops. Holt will allow this.

Holt is the reserve wicket-keeper for the Sydney Thunder who play in last game or second last game of the round in almost every round for the rest of the season, making him perfect for this AE loop role.

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Breakevens

Each week we’ll list the top players with both the highest and lowest breakevens, plus a few additional players worth noting, to help track your cash movement.

The breakeven number is the score required in the upcoming round for a player to make or lose money.

Lowest breakeven (Money-makers)

Nathan McSweeney -69

Marcus Stoinis -63

David Moody -51

Josh Brown -49

Will Sutherland -41

Ollie Davies -23

Nathan Ellis -23

Wes Agar -20

Brendan Doggett -19

Tom Rogers -19

James Bazley -17

Riley Meredith -9

James Vince -9

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Highest breakeven (Likely price drop)

Matt Short 160

Beau Webster 136

Ben McDermott 122

Akeal Hosein 121

Xavier Bartlett 118

Martin Guptill 113

Gurinder Sandhu 108

Nathan Coulter-Nile 105

Tom Rogers 103

Luke Wood 99

Nic Maddinson 97

Aaron Hardie 95

Henry Thornton 91

Mark Steketee 90

Jhye Richardson 88

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Skippers

Last week, it was a flop, which is probably indicative of my poor round.

After a string of strong calls, it hit the skids with my top vice-captain pick Dan Sams scoring 1 point, not a typo!

With that travesty I turned to my skipper play, Jhye Richardson, who despite bowling outstanding as he invariably does, managed just 28 points.

The saving grace was that all the major choices, including Matt Short, Akeal Hosein, Sean Abbott and Shadab Khan all went terribly. What a crazy week it was. Congratulations to anyone who went elsewhere with any success.

The looming rain in Hobart tonight scares me, so I’m looking toward the Stars v Renegades clash at the MCG for my vice-captain.

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Marcus Stoinis found form with the willow, and bowled two overs, down from four the game prior.

Regardless, it’s a pretty great role for a bloke with his upside now he’s found some touch. Especially as you still have your skipper if he doesn’t produce.

For skippers, I’m a little torn as North Sydney Oval for the Sixers v Heat is so batter friendly it may be the week to risk a batsmen like Josh Philippe in that game, but I don’t think I have it in me to do it. Add in the storm threat and there are a few red flags.

So I suppose it’s onto the Scorchers v Thunder in Perth, and while the Thunder have improved a lot of late, we know they’re prone to a collapse.

I’m doubling down on Jhye Richardson to bounce back on home turf.