Final Word: Captains, weather, super PODs, Rd 10

We’re down to the final four rounds of the Supercoach Big Bash season.

Hopefully everybody survived Round 9 okay, after mass outs turned it into a far more difficult week to navigate than we had anticipated.

I ended up being a player short which hurt, but the Cooma Stallions mustered some fight to score a respectable 1,190.

It was a score I was very happy with, and I thought I may have actually seen some green arrows in the overall rankings, but we dropped four spots to 80^th overall.

A shout out to Nathan Coulter-Nile who delivered for me once again in style, as Maxy Bryden puts it, the King of the double.

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While still in the hunt for the overall title, I’m now just far enough back that I’ll probably need a few POD plays to stay in the hunt.

Fortunately the game has been blown wide open with the returns of the Australian international stars, and two single game weeks on the trot, so there’s ample opportunity to make moves.

It’s actually one of the most exciting trade weeks of the season with Supercoaches going in a multitude of different directions.

Let’s take a look at Supercoach BBL Round 10.

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Weather Watch

All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Saturday, 12PM. All times are in AEDT. Forecasts are subject to change.

Saturday

4PM: Strikers v Heat, Adelaide Oval

Forecast: Sunny, 38 degrees, 0% chance of rain.

Verdict: Hot, so hot.

7.30PM: Renegades v Stars, Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Forecast: Becoming sunny, 37 degrees. 20% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon, evening.

Verdict: Also very hot… Looking fairly clear, but monitor the looming thunderstorms closely as that has the potential to impact the game significantly if it hits.

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Sunday

1.40PM: Hurricanes v Thunder, Blundstone Arena, Hobart

Forecast: Partly cloudy, 20 degrees, 10% chance of rain.

Verdict: Looking all clear.

7.15PM: Sixers v Scorchers, SCG, Sydney

Forecast: Sunny, 29 degrees, 0% chance of rain.

Verdict: I’m not sure there’s been a Sydney forecast in the past two years that’s been 0% chance of rain, you beauty!

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Looking ahead

Round 10 is the first of two straight single game rounds, with no doubles or byes, making the draw pretty simple to navigate for the rest of the season.

The final bye for the tournament will be in Round 13, the last week, which is the Perth Scorchers.

The Scorchers have a double in Round 12, along with the Brisbane Heat, so probably resist trading their players if possible.

Super PODs

In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 5% ownership (or around about) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.

They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.

As ownerships of double game week players will likely soar above 10% for most of those options closer to game time once trades are made, I’ll look towards single game week players.

Last week, going early on Marnus Labuschagne was the play.

He flopped for the Brisbane Heat after failing to fire with the bat, then getting blasted out of the attack when conceding 20 runs from his first over.

This week, Martin Guptill is the pick at a staggeringly low 0.2% ownership among the top 1% ranked Supercoaches overall.

This is one of the best T20 players on the planet, granted he’s in the twilight of his career, with the ability to go on with his scores.

He’s been on the brink of that big score, with a stack of starts in recent games, including a pair of 30s.

He looks a great play this week as he can be looped in game two if he fails, my knock on the buy is that in the following two rounds the Renegades play late meaning he likely won’t be a loop play which invites some risk.

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Breakevens

Each week we’ll list the top players with both the highest and lowest breakevens, plus a few additional players worth noting, to help track your cash movement.

The breakeven number is the score required in the upcoming round for a player to make or lose money.

Lowest breakeven (Money-makers)

Sam Harper -74

Moises Henriques -50

Liam Hatcher -47

Caleb Jewell -38

Joel Davies -34

Sean Abbott -32

Lance Morris -30

Hilton Cartwright -25

Ruwantha Kellapotha -19

David Moody -18

Todd Murphy -13

Ryan Gibson -10

David Payne -9

Will Sutherland -5

Jordan Silk -5

Nathan Coulter-Nile -4

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Highest breakeven (Likely price drop)

Jhye Richardson 138

Michael Neser 134

Cameron Boyce 134

James Bazley 129

Henry Thornton 125

Hayden Kerr 122

Daniel Sams 120

Matthew Wade 116

Marnus Labuschagne 115

Ashton Turner 114

David Warner 107

Gurinder Sandhu 105

Matt Gilkes 105

Tom Rogers 92

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Skippers

Last week, Matty Short delivered once again as skipper with 188 points.

Honestly, this bloke is on another (Supercoach) level to any other player in the game.

He was 20 off 6 in game two of the Strikers double and looked on track to go bonkers before his dismissal.

He then came out in the second innings, took wickets, catches, and everything in between.

He’s averaging 90 points this season, which is 22 clear of the next best in terms of active players, being Caleb Jewell.

Jhye Richo is averaging 80 but is out of action.

The Strikers play game one this week, so he’s your vice-captain, don’t think twice.

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If he fails, well take your pick for skippers because there’s copious quality options, all with risks to consider.

The Strikers face the Heat, which rules Marnus Labuschagne out as an option, ditto Travis Head.

The safety play of Dan Sams is dealing with a groin niggle and is probably too big a concern to go with.

I’m leaning towards Sean Abbott or Hayden Kerr for their blockbuster clash with the Scorchers who have an elite bowling attack, but their batting line-up has frailties, albeit still quite strong.

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The risk is if the Scorchers bowl first and run through the Sixers giving them a small total to chase, I suppose the flip side to that is that Kerr/Abbott would get a decent opportunity with the willow.

If worried about that happening, maybe AJ Tye is the safer play in the same game?

We saw in the clash against the Thunder how valuable his role is bowling at the death for that side, picking up late wickets with ease.

As it stands, I’m leaning towards Abbott.

Let’s just hope Matty Short continues to fire and we don’t have to make this gruelling decision.