Tim Williams
SC Playbook founder, 2nd NRL 2020, 43rd BBL 21/22'
Final Word: Captains, weather, super PODs, Rd 12
With time ticking down until Round 12, Tim Williams, 147th overall, has the final say on weather, super PODs, skippers and more.
BBL
January 20, 2023
We’re down to the final two rounds of the season.
It looms as a tough week, with two teams on the double, but a few complications around both Perth and Brisbane.
Perth are hot property, but with their high ladder position and immense depth there’s a risk of restings.
The Heat need to win games, so line-up is less of an issue, but there is some rain around the Gabba for tonight’s game which we’ll need to monitor.
The Stallions continued the trend of minor falls down the ladder, dropping 16 spots to 147th overall.
Hardly a bad spot to be, but it’s been a weird middle section to the season without seeing too much green, if any.
A shout out to the absolutely flying SC Playbook unlimited group which boasts seven of the top ranked Supercoaches overall, including the entire top five!
We had defending champion Andrew on the podcast this week, who is second overall and eyeing back-to-back titles.
He gave some outstanding insights, so jump into the podcast to hear his approach to the great game.
Let’s take a look at Supercoach BBL Round 12.
Embed from Getty ImagesWeather Watch
All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Friday, 10:30AM. All times are in AEDT. Forecasts are subject to change.
Friday
4:30PM: Strikers v Scorchers, Adelaide Oval
Forecast: Mostly sunny, 26 degrees, 0% chance of rain.
Verdict: All clear
8PM: Heat v Hurricanes, The Gabba, Brisbane
Forecast: Shower or two, 26 degrees, 70% chance of 0-10mm of rain, the chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon.
Verdict: Rain and possible thunderstorms around that may significantly impact the game. Monitor closely leading in as it may alter trade and skipper plans with the Heat playing the first game of their double.
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Saturday
7:05PM: Sixers v Thunder, SCG, Sydney
Forecast: Possibly shower, 25 degrees, 40% chance of 0-1mm of rain.
Verdict: Looking fairly good, but monitor the updated forecast Saturday morning.
Sunday
1:40PM: Heat v Stars, The Gabba, Brisbane
Forecast: Partly cloudy, 29 degrees, 20% chance of any rain.
Verdict: Looking clear
7:15PM: Scorchers v Renegades, Optus Stadium, Perth
Forecast: Mostly sunny, 33 degrees, 10% chance of any rain.
Verdict: Looking clear, but there is some chance of a thunderstorm, so keep an eye on this on Sunday.
Embed from Getty ImagesLooking ahead
The Scorchers have a double in Round 12, along with the Brisbane Heat, so put them in your trade plans this week.
It may be wise to be patient on the Scorchers quick bowling contingent as the depth is so immense they’re always a risk of rotation.
Especially with their high placing on the ladder, there’s every chance key players sit for game two of the double.
If trading in, wait until final teams as the line-up may chop and change.
The final bye for the tournament will be in Round 13, which is the Perth Scorchers, so don’t invest in too many players and risk playing short next week.
The same round, the Hobart Hurricanes play the double.
Super PODs
In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 5% ownership (or around about) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.
They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.
As ownerships of double game week players will likely soar above 10% for most of those options closer to game time once trades are made, I’ll look towards single game week players.
Last week, Nathan Coulter-Nile got a pass mark with 40 points, but it could have been better.
This week, let’s have a crack at devastating Davey Warner at just 3.4% ownership in the top 1% of overall ranked Supercoaches.
Watching Steve Smith blast a tonne will surely put fire in his belly ahead of the Sydney derby.
Of course there’s substantial risk in going a batter only like Warner, but that’s why he’s at such low ownership.
If you’re looking to consolidate rank he’s probably not your man, but if you want a late throw at the stumps to chase substantial ranks, he could be the go-to guy.
Embed from Getty ImagesBreakevens
Each week we’ll list the top players with both the highest and lowest breakevens, plus a few additional players worth noting, to help track your cash movement.
The breakeven number is the score required in the upcoming round for a player to make or lose money.
Lowest breakeven (Money-makers)
Nick Larkin -56
Matt Renshw -35
Joel Davies -34
Todd Murphy -31
Corey Rocchiccioli -27
Daniel Sams -25
Kurtis Patterson -25
Ruwantha Kellapotha -21
Steve Smith -19
David Moody -18
Harry Conway -17
Matt Gilkes -13
Usman Qadir -12
Beau Webster -11
Highest breakeven (Likely price drop)
Note that the substantially high Scorchers and Heat breakevens are the scores across both games of their double.
Jhye Richardson 166
Marnus Labuschagne 142
Caleb Jewell 138
Matt Kelly 132
Xavier Bartlett 125
Nathan McSweeney 125
Stephen Eskinazi 120
AJ Tye 117
James Bazley 115
Jason Behrendorff 111
Tom Rogers 111
Embed from Getty ImagesSkippers
Last week, Matty Short delivered as vice-captain with 119 points, but then again when hasn’t that bloke delivered this season?
It’s an interesting week for skippers, with Short playing in game one, but the Strikers having the single game.
Do we lock him in as VC, or go with a Scorchers player on the double?
I can’t pass up the double, so I’ll be putting the VC on a Scorchers player, likely a batsmen.
The bowlers scare me due to rotation risk, and hopefully they use the road of a deck on Adelaide Oval that’s seen plenty of runs scored.
Aaron Hardie looks a good play for owners if he can get moving.
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As skipper, this would lead towards a Heat player.
Watch the weather and make sure this has a say in the decision, hopefully it stays dry.
Michael Neser will be highly selected for obvious reasons off the back of a four wicket haul, he looks the safe play.
Depending where you’re ranked and what your goals are, I’m tempted to have a bit of fun and go a little away from the pack with someone like James Bazley or Marnus Labuschagne, despite the latter’s poor BBL form thus far.
Let’s go with Marnus and hope he finds some form, while getting a few overs under the belt.
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