Spy Talk: Decision time, Round 3

Gday Legends!

No Podcast for me this week so I’m turning to the written form.

Before I get into the hottest of topics, including my player rankings and positional battles (who to take), a quick update.

My side appears in good shape and I am sitting at 18k after two rounds.

My aim this week is obviously cash generation focused, but it is also an eye on the double value play, that being cash generation but also trying to bring in someone who could also do a job for me either for a period of time or potentially the season.

The perfect example of this is Wayde Egan v Reed Mahoney.

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Egan would be a pure cash grab which is fine, but it is then another trade to move, whilst Reed could potentially be a keeper or at the very least be an excellent play in your 17s for a period of time while we work towards Harry.

Reed locks in a very good hooker option while putting the extra cash into someone like Nicho Hynes soon rather than Harry. OR just get in Harry, there’s nothing wrong with that, but I’m strongly in camp Mahoney over Egan especially given minutes and pedigree.

Now let’s get into some more players and topics before a little ranking list below of my top eight buys of the week from the popular players being brought in.

To make it easier for all, I will generally go in order of the most brought in this week and offer my opinion – oh and one more thing I need to clearly define the new term I am using to help fuel my trade decisions early in the season.

Triple Threat =

1. Cash generation potential
2. Strong plays in 17s to get those all important points
3. Possible keeper / long-term play (Save trades this way)

If you can hit all three you will be flying, but it’s not a must. Short term cash is still ok.

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Players of Note

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow  

Anexcellent short-term play for cash and then can sell if required.

He isn’t in my top three trades though, just based on maybe a Dolphins regression and if the tries dry up. He is a true talent though and with increased workrate could prove to be a decent option.

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Wayde Egan

I have spoken about him a bit already.

He will definitely make you money. How much though remains to be seen?

A couple of 45s would mean he may not even make $100k. A pair of 65s though would yield $135k.

Minutes are the concern as they are a little unknown, but he still looks a good short-term buy!

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Bulldogs Boys

Jacob Kiraz, Reed Mahoney, Jacob Preston

I’ll keep it short but I really like them all!

I own Preston already and I am bringing in the other two.

Reed could be a stud with his workrate in tackling, offloads and attacking ability, whilst Kiraz basically could have the best base at CTW in history if he remains on the up.

At the very least he could go 50 then 50 and make about $135k and be sold for $700,000!

If he tons up this week he is looking at $122k rise and another $100k next week.

If he then becomes an absolute must and costs you way more money I’d be filthy.

Locked in and I hope he is a keeper, otherwise it’s a straight swap for near anybody.

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Brisbane Boys

Reece Walsh and Ezra Mam

Reece Walsh I am more than happy to assess this week and if necessary bring him in, but I’d still prefer a Turbo-Teddy-Trell combination so I won’t be rushing in.

Ezra could be a good swap for Kalyn Ponga at a similar price range. Boy he can play!

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Braydon Trindall

Tempting, but with maybe only one rise left (Nicho reportedly back next week) and a plethora of other options he is a no for me.

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Eli Katoa

My other trade in. Fits the bill of money maker, possible long-term play and good points upside all in one.

It’s the triple threat that I’m chasing this week with my trade ins!

Just remember if you happen to nail a triple threat guy then you also save an additional trade down the line potentially if they stay in your side rather than having to sell off two or three new guys in a couple of weeks in order to not lose the cash they make.

In terms of Eli Katoa, if he can combine some base with attack he could be bloody anything. He’s fit and runs a great line off Hughes.

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Others of Note

Nathan Cleary

I can maybe understand the sell given a high breakeven and the bye. Who is your depth if you keep Cleary? Personally I’m very happy to hold on.

Penrith should improve and he has been desperately unlucky. A big score is due.

The Cleary/Hynes combination is coming soon unless my man Sammy Walker continues to deliver.

For what it’s worth, I don’t mind their draw post bye. It’s mixed but it’s Cleary and they are not all hard games and he doesn’t have to play against Penrith!! 😉

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James Tedesco

I agree he is a decent sell option. Purely because I was looking towards Teddy to Latrell anyway in a week so you may end up with no Teddy regardless in which case it could be the play to go early before the likely price drop.

If you want to keep Teddy which is very viable then he is a solid hold and can obviously be a season long keeper.

It’s something I’m grappling with and I’ve worked out that I can maybe save $40-70k by moving him on now, but I’ll need to play someone in his place like Izaac Thompson, Iaaiya Katoa or Matt Doorey. If they could get within 30 of Teddy I’d be cheering.

To help figure out this conundrum let’s write it down:

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Scenario is exactly this:

This week

1. To’o to Kiraz

Next week

– Teddy to Latrell

Elite centres remaining: Kiraz & Valentine Holmes

This is two trades initially but it leaves me with Val who was always a short-term rental for me at his price (pending his form this week. A 150 would change things).

I’d much prefer to keep To’o at $100k cheaper and use that cash on the likes of Hynes, Garrick, Harry Grant and so on or go straight to Garrick as above.

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This leads to scenario number 2:

This week

1. Teddy to Kiraz

Next week

– Val to Latrell

Elite Centres remaining: Kiraz, To’o

Writing it down allows me to assess the benefits.

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In both scenarios the first two trades see Kiraz and Latrell come in.

They both use 2 trades.

Scenario 1 allows me to play Teddy in my 17 this week.

Scenario 2 doesn’t but also avoids a possible loss of $30-80k (estimate) and also leaves me with Val still in my side next week who costs $100k more then To’o, and as mentioned I would like this extra $100k for other guns now they are returning.

Val could of course be moved to Garrick, while To’o could also be moved to Garrick in the other scenario.

I think I would make that play either way but it may not be until after round 6 for Manly which means the main benefit is Teddy’s possible loss of money this week, which could prove a lot or minimal depending how he goes.

Compare this with playing Teddy v my last player in my 17 instead of him and there is pressure on them to perform.

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Conclusion to scenarios 1 & 2

I won’t lie to you people, I am no closer to figuring out whether I trade Teddy or To’o to Kiraz this week!

Give me your thoughts please.

Do I lock in the safer points or take the possible $50k+ in price drop to help me get the other guns quicker?

How many does Teddy score v Souths this Friday?

It feels dirty to even comprehend this, but if I’m planning to sell next week anyway when he has a bye into a tough draw it just might make sense.

Maybe the tie breaker is that I’ll have a centre I’m happy with still in my side next week at $100k cheaper than Valentine. Money for other positions = Power!!

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Player rankings

1. Jacob Kiraz
2. Jacob Preston
3. Reed Mahoney (Pending your hooking situation)
4. Eli Katoa
5. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
6. Wayde Egan
7. Bryce Cartwright (Will he continue playing 80 next week when Matterson returns the only risk?)
8. Jamayne Isaako

Thanks legends. So so much to discuss.

I do think there are so many viable avenues this round but I’m going to stick to the triple threat approach of Money – Possible keeper – Points in playing 17s by bringing in Kiraz, Mahoney and Katoa.