Niko’s binoculars: Keeping an eye on trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 4

2134 for me this week which was slightly below par thanks to not owning players like Clayton Oliver and fielding Callaghan for his measly 37. 

It was also a week where most of my players decided they didn’t want to use the ball well.  Pain. 

I honestly don’t think my team is that far away from scoring well so hopefully I’ll finally get a few 50-50 calls right from here on, because I didn’t hit them with my starting team.

Let’s see how we can improve my team and hopefully yours at the same time.

Embed from Getty Images

Who I’m Watching

Clayton Oliver (MID $701,100) – Golly he is so good, shame about the hair.  I would probably have to rip up my team to get him in, and that never works out.  I think I’ll just have to wait for a poor game if it ever comes.  It is tempting to try and make it work though.

Tim English (RUC $616,800) – I wish I started him.  Averaging 137.3 which is huge and I own two rucks averaging under 100.  I’m still petrified he’ll get a head knock when I bring him in, so I think I’m sticking with Darcy and Marshall.  Plus, after last year, I’m sick of trading rucks.

James Sicily (DEF $608,400) – I like what I’m seeing and could be the guy I target to replace an underperforming Ridley.  18 marks on the weekend was huge.

Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $557,400) – 145 and 155 in his two games and hasn’t moved in price because he was an extremely late out last weekend.  Still needs to pass a test on his calf so I’m wary, but still very interested.

Jordan De Goey (MID $499,200) – I love seeing this from him as a Collingwood man.  I think he’s turned the corner and starting to come out from the Kmart Dusty areas.  Will he stay on the rails and be a top 8 mid though?  Geez I hope so but I’m not betting on it.

We’ve linked up with Betr for the 2023 footy season! Each week of the AFL season we’ll be delivering our SC Playbook unique market, with the integration of AFL Fantasy (not to be confused with AFL Supercoach, slightly different point system). This week, we’ve got RowMar 100+ AFL Fantasy points into 3+ goals from Ben King! FOLLOW HERE

Will Day (DEF $402,600) – I own him in draft so loved what I saw on the weekend.  I don’t think he’ll be a keeper, so I’ll need to trade again, and I’m not convinced he’ll make $150k from here-on. 

Kade Chandler (FWD $206,800) – Looks like I missed a good one here.  Can I jump on when he’s already gone up $80k?  Probably not, but I’m still tempted as he can play on field.

Will Phillips (MID $158,300) – The guy is good, just needs to cement his place in the best 22.  If he gets named with LDU and Simpkin returning I’m most likely bringing him in.

Harry Rowston (MID $139,800) – I love his role – He’s averaging 60% CBAs but isn’t scoring great.  That could change and I think he stays in the team.  GWS are only rotating 5 players through the midfield and he is one of them.  A good trade in option.

Embed from Getty Images

Breakeven Analysis

Must Have’s

I think there’s only one but with a condition:

• Will Phillips (MID $158,300) B/E -52:  On the proviso he is named best 22 when LDU and Simpkin return this week.  Can safely play him on field.

Embed from Getty Images

Consider

Guys I’m not sold on for one of either job security or role:

• Joel Amartey (FWD $223,000) B/E -72:  I’m worried he’ll lose his spot when Sam Reid returns, even though he’s performing well albeit with low TOG.
• Tyler Brockman (FWD $123,900) B/E -41:  His history of scoring is woeful.  I want to see him back it up before I consider him.  Wait for the bubble.
• Jacob Van Rooyen (FWD $123,900) B/E -41:  I like the role but no need to go early.
• Samson Ryan (RUC/FWD $123,900) B/E -28:  Only if you’re desperate and need a warm body.
• Tylar Young (DEF $102,400) B/E -27:  As above

Embed from Getty Images

Trade Out Options

These guys need to go because their high break-evens include things such as injury or role concerns:

• Travis Boak (MID $580,200) B/E 253:  Doesn’t have the role.
• Tom Hawkins (FWD $450,400) B/E 188:  Perhaps he’s not ready yet after an interrupted pre-season with injury.
• Alex Witherden (DEF $474,200) B/E 186:  Injured and will plummet in price when he returns.
• Andrew Brayshaw (MID $573,600) B/E 139:  Just isn’t using the ball well when he has it.  There’s much better options available at the price.
• Finn Callaghan (MID $263,600) B/E 69:  I wish I traded him last week now.  Does not have the role or the scoring capacity like he did in round 1.  Seems troubled by his shoulder too.  Must trade.
• Campbell Chesser (DEF/MID $132,100) B/E 7:  Injured and out for around 6 weeks.  Move to someone who will make money unless you need a loop player.

Are you about to tie the knot and have concerns about the cost of the wedding, and the honeymoon to follow? Patty and George from Mortgage Choice SCW can get you the best loan rate possible, with no hidden fees, and you’ll have the money within 24 hours. It’s a super easy process, only needing a message and a phone call. Save $129 by mentioning SC Playbook for a FREE CONSULT!

Tag Watch

Touk Miller / Noah Anderson – I think Marcus Windhager will set his sights on one of these two after keeping Zach Merrett relatively quiet last week.

Cameron Guthrie – Will probably get Finn Maginness if he keeps his spot in the Hawks line up.  Hasn’t been doing many tagging jobs and was subbed out last week.