Niko’s binoculars: Keeping an eye on trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 5

2061 this week for me which was again below par and resulted in a slight drop in rankings. 

I’ve been consistent in scoring but seem to have selected most of the premiums who have started the season poorly.  Laird, Coniglio, and Docherty, I’m looking at you all and you’re slowly killing me.

The Docherty injury is welcome news to me as I’ve been considering trading him anyway, now the decision has been made for me.

Looks like it might be a tricky week trade wise as I’m not convinced there’s many attractive options, particularly in our rookie stocks.  Let’s deep dive a little.

Sign up to SC Playbook in 2023! Gain access to stacks of additional premium articles every week during the season, our major subscriber prize, our Whatsapp community featuring Qnas with our team of contributors, and plenty of other bonus features. SUBSCRIBE HERE!

Embed from Getty Images

Who I’m Watching

Clayton Oliver (MID $705,800) – Continues to do the business and choosing to start Laird instead really hurts.  I think he’ll just hover around this price for a while so I’m not going to bust my team to get him in just yet. 

Tim English (RUC $648,400) – Same as Oliver.  Choosing to start Darcy instead has me leaking points.  Not having either is probably why I can’t make any ground on the competition.

Touk Miller (MID $625,900) – I have him high on my list as I want him in my side come bye time.  Will bottom out in price soon, maybe he already has.

Jordan Dawson (DEF $618,200) – What a huge game on the weekend.  Now or never if you don’t own.  Perfect Docherty replacement along with Tom Stewart.

Patrick Cripps (MID $594,100) – Ticking over nicely and I feel like he could explode soon.  Especially if he can start hitting the scoreboard again.  Perhaps Walsh coming in will help with that?

Embed from Getty Images

James Sicily (DEF $580,600) – Big breakeven now after a poor second half against the Cats.  On the radar for a few week’s time when some cows fatten up.

Jeremy Cameron (FWD $550,600) – He’s got such a good role and ceiling.  I feel like it’s chasing points however so will probably pass.

Jordan De Goey (MID $511,400) – Good score in a loss which is a great sign.  Averaging 110 and looks a great POD option.

Mason Redman (DEF $503,000) – Fun player to watch and has the right role in the side over Ridley. 

Jacob van Rooyen (FWD $123,900) – Looks like the only real downgrade option this week after Brockman stunk up the G yesterday.  Will he keep his spot though?

Are you about to tie the knot and have concerns about the cost of the wedding, and the honeymoon to follow? Patty and George from Mortgage Choice SCW can get you the best loan rate possible, with no hidden fees, and you’ll have the money within 24 hours. It’s a super easy process, only needing a message and a phone call. Save $129 by mentioning SC Playbook for a FREE CONSULT!

Break-even Analysis

Must Have’s

Tom Stewart (DEF $572,800) B/E 69:  His injury score of 18 will disappear now and his price will go up.  You’ll have him during the byes too so is a very appealing option.  Great floor and massive ceiling.

Embed from Getty Images

Consider

Guys I’m not sold on for one of either job security or role:

• Samson Ryan (RUC/FWD $156,500) B/E -28:  Nank’s injury has his job security rock solid.  I’m not sure he’ll score well though.  A good option if you need a RUC/FWD.
• Jacob Van Rooyen (FWD $123,900) B/E -71:  I like the role but not sold he’ll keep his spot long term.  Plus, I don’t have a spot for him unless I cull a keeper which I’m trying desperately to avoid.
• Tyler Brockman (FWD $123,900) B/E -43:  Subbed off with an injury and 25 score.  Don’t think we can go there as his floor is in the basement.

Embed from Getty Images

Trade out Options

These guys could go because their high break-evens include things such as injury or role concerns:

• Toby Nankervis (RUC $563,500) B/E 102:  Has a syndesmosis injury and out for an extended period.  Sucks if you traded him in for Cameron.  He must go and perhaps try and get English or use Grundy as a steppingstone to do so.  Must trade.
• Stephen Coniglio (FWD $516,000) B/E 167:  Not tackling much and using the ball poorly.  I just can’t justify wasting trades on sideway moves anymore.  Think it’s a hold, just.
• Jordan Ridley (DEF $483,200) B/E 93:  Just doesn’t have the right role to score consistently well right now.  Try and move him to Daicos/Dawson/Stewart.
• Will Setterfield (MID $444,000) B/E 85:  It’s tempting to try and upgrade him to a premo but best to wait and see if he drops another big score first.  Has had an injury niggle the last couple of weeks which may be hampering his output.
• Ben Cunnington (MID/FWD $385,100) B/E 115:  Doesn’t have the right role to score well either and should be traded out as a priority if you own.
• Cam Mackenzie (MID $263,400) B/E 13:  His CBA numbers have been declining every week which is a very worrying sign.  Still has a low breakeven so perhaps one more chance.

Embed from Getty Images

Tag Watch

Rory Laird – Ed Curnow probably heads to him at the centre bounce to inflict further pain on me.

Touk Miller – Aish did a solid job on Laird last week and may turn his attention to Touk this week.  Touk seems to handle tags well though so don’t let that scare you off trading him in.

Josh Kelly – If Maginness is going to get a job, I’d say he tries to limit this guy’s influence.  He’s in form and a match winner.

Nick Daicos / Jordan De Goey – Windhager will try and limit one of these guys no doubt.  Will be interesting to see where he goes, but it’s probably enough for me to consider Nick a no-go Captain choice this week.

We’ve linked up with Betr for the 2023 footy season! Each week of the AFL season we’ll be delivering our SC Playbook unique market, with the integration of AFL Fantasy (not to be confused with AFL Supercoach, slightly different point system). This week, we’ve got a South Aussie special with both the Crows and Power to win into 210+ combined AFL Fantasy points from Laird and Rozee! FOLLOW HERE