Final say: Round 7 tactics, trades, skippers

Caught up in the excitement of a monstrous Bontempelli score on Friday night and fuelled by perhaps a couple too many cold beverages at the LIV Golf Watering Hole over the weekend, I forgot to put the E on Rowan Marshall while attempting to execute my Vice Captaincy loophole. We’ve all been there. 

A very simple and annoying way to cost yourself 88 free points. Would not recommend! Can’t be making those kinds of mistakes when you’re holding Will Day and Tom Green on your bench. 

Aside from that disaster, it was a pretty decent round for your boy! 2,104 was good enough for 31,00th for the round and I’m up to 17,800th for the season. Not exactly where we’d like to be, but we’re also not out of the picture.

The good news is, the guns are starting to fire. The aforementioned Bontempelli was magnificent, Nick Daicos is a certified freak, Rory Laird has bounced back from a rough start, Shrek is BACK and (nearly) all of the forward line guns are firing. 

We’re staying positive over at Explosive Duryea FC!  

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The Round 6 Positives

Not Fading Cogs

Haha. In case you haven’t realised yet, there’s something about Cogs I just find too alluring to ignore. The GWS up-and-down, in-and-out superstar entered my team last week after starting Gulden over him to begin the season and, all things being equal, is in there to stay.

136 on debut was an epic return. Will it continue with Tom Green back from suspension? Only time will tell. But jeez it feels good not having to dread seeing that distinctive Cogs running style everywhere I look.

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Connor Rozee

Not every SCPB contributor’s favourite player (looking at you Rainman), but I’m an unashamed leader of the Rozee fan club. 

The major criticism of Rozee prior to this season (from both a SuperCoach and real world perspective) was his inability to string high-quality games together. He’s answered those questions emphatically this season – a low score of 84 and an average of 103 is testament to that.

Port are clearly a better side when Rozee is around the ball, and that’s about all there is to it. Expect to see him in the guts and improving every week this season.

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Daicos Perma-Captain

I actually don’t know what Daicos’ SuperCoach floor is this season. 110? 120? Would you bet on him scoring below 110 for the rest of this season?

A low score of 109 and every single other game above 125 so far this year is absurd. It’s his second year. He’s just turned 20. 

It’s going to be difficult to put the armband on anyone else moving forward! 

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The Round 6 Negatives

Jordan Dawson’s Kicking

Not something I thought could possibly be a negative, but something about the ground in Tassie on the weekend didn’t fit the Crows’ skipper’s eye.

Normally 24 touches would be more than enough for Dawson to do his business and notch a 110+ score, but unfortunately (especially so for those who had him skipper), one of the AFL’s most elite users of the ball went at just 66% disposal efficiency.

I would be stunned if that happened again this season.

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Rookie Roulette

Things are not great on the rookie front. Bringing in Matt Roberts was absolutely the right call, but with 19 points in 27% gametime and a serious knee injury, he’s going to prove a pretty nasty roadblock for the next few weeks.

Matt Johnson has 0 job security to speak of, and Alwyn Davey, Lachie Cowan, Darcy Wilmot, Conor McKenna (and a few others) are crashing in to the rookie wall. 

There’s not a lot of backup coming either. Seamus Mitchell, Sam Sturt and Corey Wagner (who’s been dropped) are similarly risky prospects with low ceilings. It’s tough to make money in SuperCoach 2023.

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Errol Gulden

I’m officially concerned about Errol. 

Just the three tons this year, no scores over 115 and a woeful 47 in a badly beaten side on the weekend.

Errol’s career average scoring has gone 75 (2021) -> 85 (2022) -> 90 (2023 so far). That’s a natural progression. It’s easy to say in retrospect, but maybe we shouldn’t be disappointed with a 90-95 average? Maybe those 105+ projections were always a bit ridiculous?

At $489k and with a breakeven of 135, Errol is going to bleed some cash and doesn’t really look close to a top 6 forward. When do you pull the pin?

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Trades

Lachie Cowan -> Seamus Mitchell

Alwyn Davey -> Sam Sturt

$190k cash in the bank.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. I don’t feel good about either of these downgrades, but with essentially $0 in the bank and a slew of rookies hitting the proverbial wall, it’s time to get a little bit aggressive.

As we discussed on this week’s pod, Mitchell at least appears to have his job security in his own hands. An average of 73 in his first two games is promising, and while it’d be foolish to expect him to remain a Hawks regular all season, he’s surely bought himself a couple of games of good grace.

Sturt is much more of a dice-roll. He kicked two goals from 7 possessions last week, which hardly screams “long-term prospect”, but this move essentially comes down to two questions for me:

1. Is his job security any worse than Alwyn’s? No.
2. Is his scoring ceiling any worse than Alwyn’s? No.

In that case I’m fine with banking the $90k Davey’s made and moving on. 

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Eddie’s Captains

Keeping it really simple this week. 

The Dogs play the Hawks under the lid at Marvel. That spells POINTS for Bontempelli and English. 

A slightly left-field suggestion, but one definitely worth considering, is Rowan Marshall against a ragtag Port ruck unit led by the might of *checks notes* Brynn Teakle. 

The Lions have the Dockers at the Gabba and should be able to take care of business fairly easily. I think Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley are both worth a look.

Melbourne v North is absolute heaven for Clayton Oliver. He averages 120.8 against the Roos and has a high score of 178. Lol.

Last game of the round is the Crows hosting the Pies. As above, Daicos has essentially reached perma captain status for me. I don’t think you can go wrong with the armband on him. Dawson will surely bounce back from his horror kicking display last week and – assuming he’s named – Rory Laird matches up well against Collingwood. They’re his highest averaging opponent to play against and he’s gone 154, 144 and 185 in his last three matches against them.

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Vice Captains

1. Tim English
2. Rowan Marshall
3. Marcus Bontempelli

Captains

1. Clayton Oliver
2. Nick Daicos
3. Rory Laird