Quantium data analysis: True player ownership stats, Round 8

Actuary Adam Driussi provides player ownership breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.

NRL

Carnage!  Between the Storm having the bye and injuries to numerous popular players, round 8 is suddenly proving to be a nightmare in terms of fielding a solid team of 17 players.

As a result, I’ve done a bit of a deep dive into how badly teams are affected – both in total and by key position.  Should any more players pull out – namely Nathan Cleary, Turbo or Turuva, it could be chaos amongst teams!

Let’s take a look at the true player ownership stats entering Round 9 – remember that these stats are prior to any trades made this week.

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Overall

The table below sets out the most popular owned players who we know are out this week.  On average, teams have 7 players unavailable this week prior to trades – and that’s assuming Cleary, Turbo and Turuva all play.  If those 3 were to all not play, the average would increase to 9.5!

Fullback

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback. 

With so many injuries, around 80% of Supercoaches will be sweating on news surrounding Turbo.  Many coaches have seen enough already, and Turbo is currently the most traded out player this week.

CTW

CTW has also been hit hard with injuries and the Storm bye.  Players such as William Warbrick, CNK and Nick Meaney are all popular amongst leading teams and unavailable this week.

On average, teams have 1.8 CTWs unavailable this week.  2 of the top 100 have 4 CTWs unavailable.

Five-Eighth

Five eighth is no easier, with three of the six most popular players out in Josh Schuster (admittedly in 2RF for many teams), Cameron Munster and Ezra Mam.

Half Back

The vast majority of leading teams now own both Nathan Cleary and Nicholas Hynes.  Almost all teams will be sweating on Nathan Cleary playing on Saturday – especially those who didn’t captain Nicho Hynes!

2RF

2RF is also impacted this week, with key players such as Josh Schuster, Eliesa Katoa, Tohu Harris, Max King and Josh King unavailable.

Ryan Matterson is now owned by 21 of the top 100 teams – more than the number who own J’Maine Hopgood!

FRF

FRF is an absolute nightmare this week with the suspension of Payne Haas, Christian Welch on a bye and injuries to Tohu Harris, Max King and RCG.  Throw in the non-selection of the likes of Iszac Fa’asuamaleaui, Viliami Fifita and Jayden Tanner and many teams will be scrambling to field two FRFs let alone two solid scorers.   

On average, sides are missing just over 2 FRFs this week.  8 of the top 100 have all 4 FRFs unavailable while a further 28 have 3 unavailable.  If Franklin Pele was to receive a late call up for Max King that could help ease the pain ever so slightly for some teams.

HOK

Hooker is yet another challenging position for many teams, with Harry Grant unavailable due to the bye.  Just under 40% of the top 1,000 are running with Harry and Soni Luke as their hookers.  With Soni Luke under an injury cloud – and equally at the risk of playing limited minutes, this is not an ideal scenario for those teams.  From a personal point of view, I’d love to see Reed Mahoney have a big week!

Summary

In summary, if you’ve got a few players unavailable this week, don’t panic – you are not alone.  Think about where you might be willing to cop a 25 or 30 (from say a Davvy Moale) rather than burn a trade unnecessarily.  In saying that, I’d say many teams will be utilising their boost this week to get a full decent side on the field.

Good luck to everyone negotiating Round 9.  I’ll be heading out to watch my Bulldogs take on the Dragons – now you know how Cameron Ciraldo must be feeling having to field a side with so many players unavailable!

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