Trade guide: Analysing the most traded players, Round 8

Won’t someone think of the rookies! It feels like a SuperCoach week where there will be coaches who use a trade boost and others who hold fire entirely, so make sure you are across which players are the biggest market movers this week.

Sports journalist and SuperCoach expert Dylan Bolch will run his eye over the top trade targets each round and summarise which players are really worth trading in, and which are really worth trading out. 

He will give a quick take each week on the ten most traded in players and the ten most traded out as per the official SuperCoach site. 

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TRADED IN

1.     Alex Cincotta ($102,400 DEF/MID) – BUY. There’s a serious lack of rookie options at the moment and Cincotta could be the best thing we have for the next month. A perfect downgrade, or sideways move if you are stuck with a ‘dead’ rookie. The mature age defender has slotted in seamlessly at AFL level, averaging an impressive 77.5 SuperCoach points. 

2.     Sam Simpson ($166,100 MID/FWD) – Could this forgotten Cat be the rookie saviour we need? Simpson has averaged 69 SuperCoach points in his first two games of 2023 and has handy dual-position swing. My concern here is his job security though, but it did receive a boost with Gary Rohan, Jack Bowes and Cam Guthrie all set to miss this week. Tyson Stengle remains out for the ‘short term’ as well. The fact that Simpson has never played more than six matches in a season is worrying, as is his slightly elevated price tag. But if he’s named in the 22 when teams drop, do we simply have to get on board?

3.     Ryan Angwin ($123,900 MID/FWD) – Angwin had 20 touches in round six but just ten last week in the Sydney Derby. He seems to be playing a variety of roles and I don’t think his job security is very solid. Might be one to monitor with teams, but the fact he is only scoring at 52 points per match make him a pretty ordinary prospect I would’ve thought.

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4.      Jack Steele ($537,200 MID) – The Saints captain bounced back in a big way, racking up 126 SuperCoach points. His tackle numbers were up again and this is a player who has averaged 109+ SuperCoach points, including two 122+ years, in the past three seasons. His breakeven is still 126 so you can probably afford to watch another week, just to gain another piece of data to see if he really is back to his best.

5.     Rory Atkins ($203,900 DEF/MID) – Atkins had 25 touches playing in defence which resulted in 89 SuperCoach points in his first game of 2023. Definitely wouldn’t be going early on him by any means, but the conversation might be different next week if he pumps out another score of 80+.

6.     Clayton Oliver ($652,500 MID) – Oliver is a genuine SuperCoach stud and has been for several years. Not owning him will continue to hurt your H2H and overall rankings, so get him sooner rather than later.

7.     Patrick Cripps ($590,000 MID) – I think Cripps is one of the best upgrade targets this week. After scoring 80 against the Crows in round five, he has rebounded with scores of 130 and 153 in consecutive weeks. His breakeven now sits at just 54, which means now is the time to jump on board. The Carlton captain is in just 18% of sides at the time of writing, which actually makes him a bit of a point-of-difference when you look at the ownership numbers of other midfield premiums.

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8.     Stephen Coniglio ($526,900 MID/FWD) – Another juicy upgrade target, thanks to a breakeven of 57. Coniglio looks like he will be around the mark of the top six forwards by average again this season and in theory has more consistent scoring than key forwards like Jeremy Cameron and Charlie Curnow. Great buy.

9.     James Sicily ($542,500 DEF) – Another player who looks destined to be top six on his line in defence, now is a great time to jump on the Hawks skipper (breakeven of 77). Should continue to see plenty of ball in the backline and is a proven SuperCoach scorer, averaging 113.5 last season. Another good buy.

10.  Luke Ryan ($573,600 DEF) – Ryan has started like a house on fire in 2023, racking up SuperCoach points at will. He’s one of only three defenders to be averaging 120+ and has not dropped below 93 all season. He’s also got an outstanding ceiling (171 in R1). My only concern with Ryan is whether his scoring may be affected should Fremantle alter their game style, which is surely imminent? It might just mean he gets brought back to the pack a little bit, because right now he is clearly one of the best defensive options going around.

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TRADED OUT

1.     Fergus Greene ($284,800 FWD) – Ah, Ferg. After a trio of 70s, the former Dog came crashing back down to earth with a lousy score of 28. His breakeven has now crept up to 57 which means it’s time to go. I feel as though Mitch Lewis’ inclusion has actually hampered Greene, who is no longer the main guy in Hawthorn’s forward line. 

2.     Mattaes Phillipou ($251,200 MID/FWD) – Trading Phillipou to Cincotta was the first thing I did when lockout lifted on Sunday night. The young Saint looks tired and his past two scores of 20 and 39 reflect that. His breakeven is up to 84, so now is the time to cash in.

3.     Will Setterfield ($428,500 MID) – This is the biggest question of the round. Do you keep Setterfield, who’s got better scoring potential than on-field rookies, or do you trade given his breakeven is up to 117? I think it’s entirely team dependent. There’s a case to hold given his scoring ability, but equally, he’s only had one score over 100 all season and was never going to be a keeper, which we knew when we brought him in in the first place. It doesn’t help that there are very few downgrade options and I think personally I will hold and hope that he can put these lean two weeks behind him. 

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4.     Reuben Ginbey ($283,100 DEF/MID) – It feels as though Ginbey has featured in this segment for the past month now. Like Phillipou, he looks really tired but he’s having to play each game given the Eagles’ injury crisis at the moment. I think he’s one I’d look to cash in, his breakeven is up to 61 and his three-round average is just 50.7 which means he’s not a reliable on-field option.

5.     Lachie Cowan ($204,800 DEF) – Cowan was managed last week and I’m not sure he gets back into a Carlton side who just dismantled West Coast. He’s one I’d keep an eye on teams for, if he’s named, holding a warm body is probably wise, but if not, cut him loose.

6.     Will Phillips ($269,400 MID/FWD) – With Tom Powell out for the next 1-2 weeks and Luke Davies-Uniacke still a test to play, surely Phillips returns this week? If named in the 22 I’d definitely hold, but if not, it might be time to swing the axe to try and upgrade.

7.     Esava Ratugolea ($320,000 RUC/FWD) – The big Cat had had a superb three weeks prior to his last game, averaging 83.6 points. However, a score of 43 has seen his breakeven rise to 65 again, which is above his season average of 61. I see a lot of teams cashing in for Brynn Teakle which isn’t the worst move, but at the same time I don’t think there’s much harm in holding him another week or so until hopefully some more downgrades show, given he has solid job security. 

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8.     Darcy Wilmot ($263,600 DEF/MID) – Wilmot looks like he’s just about peaked given his breakeven is at 48, but with Daniel Rich and Dayne Zorko ruled out for the next 2-3 weeks, there is certainly a case to hold given the increase in job security. Perfect player to loop off the bench this week given Brisbane play under Friday night lights in the first game of the round. 

9.     Liam Jones ($306,300 DEF) – Jones’ breakeven is up to 68 which is more than his season average of 64, if you take out his concussion-effected 5 in round one. Time to move on if it allows you to improve your team.

10.  Alwyn Davey ($211,900 MID/FWD) – Davey has not been able to break back into the Bombers side after he was managed, but his breakeven is still just 32 which means there is some cash left in him. I think he’s a hold, there’s other rookies who are less likely to return that can be traded instead, or rookies who have maxed out in price and have high breakevens.