Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 10

2249 for Lovski FC this week saw me climb the ranks again up to a season high 2746. 

I’m still optimistic about continuing the climb as I’ve avoided most of the land mines to date. 

Hopper’s injury is annoying, but I wasn’t considering him a season keeper anyway. 

Trading in Gulden was a massive win, as was resisting the temptation to trade Darcy to English.

18 trades left (one boost) and I’ve got three rookies and one injury to deal with.  DPP watch is in full swing too with some key players close or already ahead of the 35% threshold.

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Who I’m Watching

Christian Petracca (MID $661.2k) – He is too expensive right now, but if he gets FWD status (31%) I’d be forced to cull someone like Coniglio to get him in.

Noah Anderson (MID $639.7k) – Expensive.  Copped a tag and didn’t deliver another big score which we were expecting.  I’ll only consider him if he drops significantly in price and Touk is out longer than expected.

Tim English (RUC $622.6k) – Price is dropping, and Sean Darcy is holding his own in the R1 battle.  Still got an eye on English as a luxury trade target.

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Sam Walsh (MID $610.4k) – Forward status looks a lock (40%).  I think he’s my #1 trade in target this week as my R15 bye looks alright.

Luke Ryan (DEF $581.6k) – Came a little down to earth this week.  Still watching but probably won’t go there.

Lachie Neale (MID $574.7k) – He’s still in the so-so range for me.  Still only the one big score for the season.  Will be a serious option if he continues to ton up leading into his bye where he’s likely to bottom out in price.

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Zach Merrett (MID $564.1k) – His form is not the greatest, but Essendon have such a good fixture run on the way home.  They play WC and NM twice each, including the first 2 weeks of SuperCoach league finals.

James Sicily (DEF $546.1k) – It changes quick.  Looks to be back now and a great value selection.

Andrew Brayshaw (MID $546k) – He may be off the watchlist next week with another sub-par score.  Not really sold on him.

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Jayden Short (MID $539.8k) – Watching as the role change has him on the radar.  Looks likely for DEF status at R12 (40%).

Jeremy Cameron (FWD $523.7k) – The poor scores are starting to come.  Interested to see how low his price gets.  They have lots of home games in the back end of the season.

Max Gawn (RUC $518.3k) – Still watching closely for the potential FWD status come round 12 (37%).

Jordan De Goey (MID $501k) – Another great score.  Can be a little up and down, or miss the random game, but is priced to buy.

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Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $497.9k) – He’s injured so wait and see.  He’ll be cheap as chips when he returns.

Darcy Cameron (RUC/FWD $494k) – B/E of 55 but can you go in blind when Cox had a career game as main ruck?  I’ll probably just watch, even though I’m desperate for that ruck cover.

Callum Mills (MID $471.4k) – What heartbreak for those who traded him in.  I’ll look to bring him in when his 4 score drops out a few weeks after his bye, it’s a perfect scenario for non-owners when cash generation is such an issue.  Looks like an ideal M8, or M9 if you can afford that.

Bailey Humphrey (MID/FWD $213.4k) – Another $200k + player to consider.  I let Atkins slide last week who has a better Supercoach role, so I think I’m letting this one slide also despite the -59 B/E.

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Break-even Analysis

MUST HAVE’S

• Errol Gulden (MID/FWD $559.4k) B/E 7:  I said he was close to being a must-have last week and he’s backed it up with another 150+ score.  His form and ownership are too strong to ignore.

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CONSIDER

• Bailey Humphrey (MID/FWD $213.4k) B/E -59:  An option for those with a high-risk appetite.  I’m very wary he’s a sub risk and prone to games where he’s invisible.  He was subbed out for -3 two weeks ago and his one big score came against WC.
• Harry Sharp (MID $123.9k) B/E -37:  Looks to be the pick of the bubble boys this week.  Schools out forever so no exams to worry about this year, but job security is not 100% nailed.
• Arthur Jones (FWD $215.7k) B/E -34:  Floor is too low to seriously consider him.  Love watching him play though.
• Thomas Berry (FWD $123.9k) B/E -34:  I don’t think he’s best 22 so passing.
• Blake Drury ($102.4k) B/E -10:  I had JVR to him locked in before his shocking 17 on the weekend.  I’ll probably still go there at the bargain basement price, if named, I think.
• Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD $579.7k) B/E 37:  Will be $600k after next week and flying.

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• Shai Bolton (MID/FWD $461.6k) B/E 41:  I’ve been burnt badly by him in the past, same with Dusty.
• Alex Witherden (DEF $458.7k) B/E 45:  Playing well but I just think there’s better options out there.
• Darcy Cameron (RUC/FWD $494k) B/E 55:  See above summary, Cox’s form is too much of a concern.
• Zak Butters (MID/FWD $564.1k) B/E 57:  It’s always the way, I was one year too early with him.  Was all over him in classic and draft last season.  Falls in the luxury trade in category.
• Matt Rowell (MID $542.5k) B/E 59:  Some labelled him finished so it’s great to see him in near his best.  I doubt I’ll buy him, but you may need the bye coverage and his ceiling is great.  Keep eating that grass son.
• Tim Kelly (MID $520k) B/E 64:  I remember tweeting he was a player I’d love to own but too afraid to go there.  Having a great season which is impressive as WC don’t take much of the pie.

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TRADE OUT OPTIONS

• Callum Mills (MID $471.4k B/E 164:  Will be out for 4-6 weeks so must trade.  Perhaps pick him up again later in the year.
• Brodie Grundy (RUC $495.7k) B/E 148:  I hope you’ve listened and have already moved him on.
• Kade Chandler (FWD $357.6k) B/E 105:  Time to go for probably the best rookie of the season with a $233k profit.
• Jacob Hopper (MID $441k) B/E 97:  Out for the medium term (whatever that means) so a must trade.
• Conor McKenna (DEF $296k) B/E 88:  He can do an Irish jig on his way out.  Time to go.
• Will Ashcroft (MID $384.3k) B/E 85:  He scores well at the Gabba so you can hold another week or two, or trade him if he can get you to an uber.
• Alwyn Davey (MID/FWD $194.4k) B/E 73:  Thanks Brad Scott for moving him from the field to sub.  Killed his price.  Almost not worth trading now.
• Oskar Baker (MID $291.1k) B/E 58:  Okay, now he’s been bled dry.
• Darcy Wilmot (DEF/MID $281.7k) B/E 35:  He’s a hold but can be used in a trade if required.

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Tag Watch

Tim Taranto – Setterfield or Caldwell could sit on him at stoppages.

Mitch Duncan – I expect Aish to do a job on him.

Jack Sinclair – O’Halloran tried to run with Daicos so I expect Sinclair to get some similar attention.

Angus Brayshaw – I wonder if Byrne-Jones will get a job on him, not sure.

Nick Daicos – Carlton don’t usually tag, but Ed Curnow does when the time is right.  If he’s not best 22 perhaps Kennedy is sacrificed to limit Nick.